The Investigation on Sustainable Security of Gas Supply as an Energy Transition Tool Towards Net Zero – 2050 in South Africa

Abstract

This paper investigates the sustainable security of gas supply as an energy transition tool. Questions were asked with a view to finding the middle ground in the debate among policy makers, academics, energy specialists and the business community. The questions covered (i) Key factors influencing the current and future sustainable gas supply in South Africa (ii) The interaction between social, economic, and environmental factors affecting sustainable security of gas supply in South Africa. (iii)Strategies that can be developed to improve the sustainable security of gas supply and their effects on the energy transition in South Africa; (iv) The importance of public-private sector collaboration in ensuring sustainable security of gas supply. South Africa's energy landscape is undergoing a transition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy mix diversification by reducing reliance on coal in favour of renewable energy sources. In this regard, gas is favoured as a transition energy source to complement solar, wind, battery storage sources, by policy makers (IRP2019). Gas may continue to be part of South Africa’s energy mix for longer than anticipated. South Africa is a net gas importer; it depends on gas imports from Mozambique because it does not have huge domestic gas reserves to support its domestic gas market. According to the Department of Minerals and Energy Resources, gas contributes about 3% to the total energy mix of the country (www.dmre.gov.za). This report considers strategies that can assist South Africa to achieve sustainable security of gas supply, as the country transactions towards a regime of clean and renewable energy. The interplay between economic, environmental and social factors is central to the conceptual analysis. Data collection was conducted through surveys and structured interviews; the quantitative data used mostly relied on the targets set in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP, 2019) for gas’s contribution to dispatchable capacity. The research philosophy of this study is pragmatic. It acknowledges the complexity of sustainable security of gas supply and the need for an interdisciplinary understanding. This means that gas supply security is not only an economic issue but also a social and environmental construct, shaped by the interactions and meanings of various stakeholders. By acknowledging the role of social constructs, this study can explore how sustainable security is negotiated and contested among various stakeholders, ii including policymakers, industry players, and civil society. This ontological stance enables the study to examine the complex interplay between technical, economic, and social factors that influence sustainable security. The key findings are: (i) an urgent need for the development of a diversified gas market, (ii) investing in infrastructure and technology, (iii) an investment-friendly policy and regulatory environment, and (iv) improved public-private sector collaboration. The report highlights the opportunities and challenges of the role of gas as a transition energy source. As the country moves away from coal dependency to a more diversified energy system, gas plays a complementary role to renewable energy. The importance of gas lies in the provision of reliable energy to support the decarbonisation path of the country. At the same time, it points to the environmental effects of gas in the long term.