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Recent Submissions

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    Towards a comprehensive social protection system for a Just Transition in South Africa
    (Presidential Climate Commission, 2025-11) Castel-Branco, Ruth; Amra, Rashaad; Gandhi, Rahul; Lehmann-Grube, Katrina; Taylor, Julia
    Despite South Africa’s carbon-intensive economy, research suggests that decarbonisation could result in net employment gains, provided the economy continues to grow (IASS, IET and CSIR, 2022; Merven et al., 2021; Rogan et al., forthcoming). While these projections are encouraging, the early distributional effects of emission reductions are likely to be unequal, with Black African workers, women and youth disproportionately at risk of job displacement during the initial years of the transition (Rogan et al., forthcoming). Social protection is one policy instrument that can help to mitigate the adverse impacts of both climate-related shocks, and decarbonisation policies. The Framework for a Just Transition in South Africa proposes sector-specific and regionally targeted social protection measures along the coal and automotive value chains, as well as agriculture and tourism (PCC, 2022). While it is critical to ensure that workers directly displaced by decarbonisation policies are adequately compensated and supported through tailored social protection measures (see Bhorat et al., 2025), this paper argues that a targeted sectoral approach will be insufficient to ensure a just transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper presents a conceptual framework and costed policy proposals for a comprehensive social protection system in support of a just transition. The conceptual framework draws on analysis of policy gaps in South Africa’s social protection system, international approaches to social protection for a just transition, semi-structured interviews with policy makers and practitioners, and case studies of particular sectors. The costing exercise examines three policy measures: a targeted Just Transition Income Support Grant (JTIS) for workers directly displaced by decarbonisation policies; a Universal Unemployment Grant (UUG) for unemployed adults between the ages of 18 and 59; and climate-responsive public employment programmes (PEPs). For each, we estimate the fiscal implications under minimalist, moderate and maximalist scenarios. The objective is not to present definitive policy prescriptions, but rather to explore potential pathways towards a comprehensive social protection system that can guide planning, phasing, and financing strategies. The paper concludes with a reflection on financing options. In addition to new sources of tax financing – e.g. taxes on high-income and high-wealth individuals, increased corporate taxes, taxes on digital financial services, climate-specific taxes – the paper argues for the need to strengthen the redistributed character of social insurance through the establishment of a national social security fund (NSSF).
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    Strengthening skills for a Just Transition: recommendations to support collaboration
    (Presidential Climate Commision (PCC), 2025) Presidential Climate Commision (PCC); Wits REAL; Rhodes Environmental Learning Research Centre
    South Africa’s commitment to a Just Transition entails an inclusive and equitable shift to a low-carbon economy that addresses both high carbon emissions and persistent inequality. Central to this is the need to facilitate economic diversification, social inclusion and environmental sustainability. Skills development is a critical enabler in preparing the current and future workforce for this transition, ensuring that no one is left behind. This strategic analysis was undertaken to inform the Presidential Climate Commission’s (PCC) role in supporting skills development for the Just Transition, by identifying key areas for strategic collaboration.
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    Understanding the future labour market: a microsimulation and distributive analysis
    (Presidential Climate Commission, 2025) Rogan, M.; Oyenubi, A.; Francis, D.; Nel, V.
    This report examines how South Africa’s energy transition toward a low-carbon economy could reshape the labour market and inequality dynamics. Using an integrated macro–micro simulation approach, it links employment projections from the SATIM computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to household-level data through a microsimulation model. This allows the analysis to move beyond aggregate employment trends to explore who gains and who loses from the transition — by skill, gender, race, and sector. The SATIMGE model simulates multiple emissions pathways (8, 9, and 10 gigatonnes (GT) CO₂ by 2050) under medium (1.5%) and high (3%) GDP growth assumptions. Across all scenarios, employment is projected to grow steadily from roughly 17 million in 2025 to between 24 and 36 million by 2050, with no evidence of net job losses. The results show that decarbonisation and net-zero pathways can coincide with positive labour market outcomes, although the magnitude of employment growth depends strongly on the assumed rate of economic growth. Microsimulation results suggest that inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient and 90/10 earnings ratios, declines across all scenarios. These reductions are driven primarily by employment expansion among unskilled workers and by improved labour absorption at the lower end of the earnings distribution. Employment growth is especially strong in the services sector, which accounts for most new jobs and is likely to benefit women disproportionately —suggesting that the transition could be gender-equalising. However, a significant skills bottleneck emerges: by 2041, the model “runs out” of skilled unemployed workers to meet projected demand, highlighting the need for targeted skills development policies. Transitions into unemployment are relatively small and concentrated in the first decade (2025–2035), particularly among African, female, youth, and agricultural workers — groups already vulnerable in the South African labour market. By contrast, transitions into employment outpace these losses throughout the period, with most new entrants coming from previously unemployed or economically inactive populations. Overall, the findings indicate that South Africa’s energy transition could be both employmentpositive and inequality-reducing if accompanied by strong economic growth, proactive skills investment and social protection measures. The report concludes that achieving a just transition requires not only green growth but also attention to who participates in, and benefits from, the emerging green economy.
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    The nexus between work-life balance, teleworking, and entrepreneurial intentions of female teleworkers in Johannesburg
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Tlatsi, Martha; Msimango-Galawe, Jabulile
    This research paper explores the influence of telework and work-life balance on the entrepreneurial intentions of female employees, particularly within the context of an emerging African economy. Through a quantitative analysis involving 231 working women primarily based in Johannesburg, South Africa, this study investigates the influence of between telework and work-life balance on entrepreneurial aspirations. The findings reveal a positive influence of telework on female employees' entrepreneurial intention, indicating that those with the option to work from home are more inclined towards entrepreneurship. Additionally, the study underscores the favourable influence or impact of telework on work-life balance, with a healthy balance significantly contributing to female employees' intentions to start their own businesses. Furthermore, the research highlights the mediating role of work-life balance in the relationship between telework and entrepreneurial intentions, emphasizing the importance of achieving a harmonious balance between professional and personal life commitments. Theoretical contributions include addressing the research gap concerning work-family issues among employed women in African emerging economies, while practical implications suggest the significance of telework and work-life balance initiatives in fostering female entrepreneurship. However, limitations such as sample size and demographic scope are acknowledged, and recommendations for future research include broader sample representation and comparative analyses across urban and rural settings.
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    Credit Rationing: Some International Evidence
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Thokwane, Kamogelo M.; Malikane, Christopher
    This study was prompted by the consumer financial distress in South Africa in recent years, characterized by skyrocketing interest rates. It was thus important to understand how the South African Credit Market works. Namely, how credit supply and demand interact over time, and what drives them. Moreover, it was important to understand how the credit market of South Africa as an emerging economy compares to the credit market of an advanced economy such as the United States of America. The end goal was to determine whether credit was restricted in South Africa, and if so, how much more or less than in the USA. To achieve the above goal, credit supply and demand models were estimated for each country as functions of real interest rate, real GDP, and real House Price Index. The models were estimated using the Two Stage Least Squares regression technique. It was found that only the real GDP was statistically significant in explaining credit supply and demand for both countries. Moreover, it was found that no significant restriction of credit was present for both countries over the observation period, contrary to what the literature says.