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Recent Submissions

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    The Investigation on Sustainable Security of Gas Supply as an Energy Transition Tool Towards Net Zero – 2050 in South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Sigenu, Khunjulwa
    This paper investigates the sustainable security of gas supply as an energy transition tool. Questions were asked with a view to finding the middle ground in the debate among policy makers, academics, energy specialists and the business community. The questions covered (i) Key factors influencing the current and future sustainable gas supply in South Africa (ii) The interaction between social, economic, and environmental factors affecting sustainable security of gas supply in South Africa. (iii)Strategies that can be developed to improve the sustainable security of gas supply and their effects on the energy transition in South Africa; (iv) The importance of public-private sector collaboration in ensuring sustainable security of gas supply. South Africa's energy landscape is undergoing a transition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy mix diversification by reducing reliance on coal in favour of renewable energy sources. In this regard, gas is favoured as a transition energy source to complement solar, wind, battery storage sources, by policy makers (IRP2019). Gas may continue to be part of South Africa’s energy mix for longer than anticipated. South Africa is a net gas importer; it depends on gas imports from Mozambique because it does not have huge domestic gas reserves to support its domestic gas market. According to the Department of Minerals and Energy Resources, gas contributes about 3% to the total energy mix of the country (www.dmre.gov.za). This report considers strategies that can assist South Africa to achieve sustainable security of gas supply, as the country transactions towards a regime of clean and renewable energy. The interplay between economic, environmental and social factors is central to the conceptual analysis. Data collection was conducted through surveys and structured interviews; the quantitative data used mostly relied on the targets set in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP, 2019) for gas’s contribution to dispatchable capacity. The research philosophy of this study is pragmatic. It acknowledges the complexity of sustainable security of gas supply and the need for an interdisciplinary understanding. This means that gas supply security is not only an economic issue but also a social and environmental construct, shaped by the interactions and meanings of various stakeholders. By acknowledging the role of social constructs, this study can explore how sustainable security is negotiated and contested among various stakeholders, ii including policymakers, industry players, and civil society. This ontological stance enables the study to examine the complex interplay between technical, economic, and social factors that influence sustainable security. The key findings are: (i) an urgent need for the development of a diversified gas market, (ii) investing in infrastructure and technology, (iii) an investment-friendly policy and regulatory environment, and (iv) improved public-private sector collaboration. The report highlights the opportunities and challenges of the role of gas as a transition energy source. As the country moves away from coal dependency to a more diversified energy system, gas plays a complementary role to renewable energy. The importance of gas lies in the provision of reliable energy to support the decarbonisation path of the country. At the same time, it points to the environmental effects of gas in the long term.
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    Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability in South Africa A Panel Analysis
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Teleki, Mmule Mpshwe; Totowa, Jacques
    Using data on South Africa’s commercial banks in the period 1994-2023, this paper investigates the relationship between selected macroeconomic matrices, namely interest rates, exchange rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the financial performance of commercial banks in South Africa. Additionally, the study seeks to determine the extent to which regulatory frameworks affect South African banks' performance, examining how regulations have contributed to stability, risk management and overall financial health within the sector. The study employs panel data regression techniques to quantitatively model the relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank profitability. We find macroeconomic variables (output growth and real interest rate) have a positive influence on bank profitability (real return of equity (ROE)) at a group level but not under returns on equity at a bank level. In the case of Net Interest Margin Ratio (NIM-Ratio), exchange rate and output growth influence it negatively. The exchange rate only influences NIM-Ratio negatively and none of the other measures of profitability. In terms of other control variables, Bank's total capital adequacy ratio is found to influence ROA, NIM-Ratio positively under both model specifications. When considered as a group, the results show that output growth significantly influences the group profitability positively for real return on assets (ROA) and ROE but not with NIM-Ratio. Real interest rate influences group profitability (ROE and NIM-ratio) under the random effect model. For other control variables, Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1) -group and total capital adequacy influence group profitability, however, the total capital adequacy only influences NIM-Ratio positively, while CET1 only drives real returns on equity. adequacy only influences NIM-Ratio positively, while CET1 only drives real returns on equity. Overall, the study suggests that macroeconomic drives play a significant role in role in bank and group profitability in a South African contex
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    Association between socio‑economic status and non‑communicable disease risk in young adults from Kenya, South Africa, and the United Kingdom
    (Nature Research, 2023) Mtintsilana, Asanda; Craig, Ashleigh
    There is a pressing need for global health preventions to curb the escalating burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Utilising multi-country study designs can improve our understanding of how socio-economic context shapes the aetiology of NCDs, and this has great potential to advance global health interventions. We examined the association between socio-economic status (SES) and NCD risk, and the potential confounding effects of smoking and alcohol intake in young adults (18–35-year-olds) from Kenya, South Africa (SA), and the United Kingdom (UK). Our study was a cross-sectional online survey that included 3000 respondents (n= 1000 per country, 50% women) conducted in April 2022. We utilised information on twelve NCDs to classify respondents as having “no condition”, “one condition”, and “multimorbidity” (having two or more conditions). A total household asset score was calculated and used as a proxy of SES, and subsequently categorised into quintiles (Q1–Q5; lowest-highest). Ordered logistic regression was used to test the associations between NCD risk and exposure variables. In the UK sample, we found that those in the second lowest SES quintile (Q2) had lower odds of developing NCDs than their lowest SES counterparts (Q1). In contrast, South African and Kenyan youth with a SES score between middle and highest quintiles (Q3–Q5) were more likely to develop NCDs than the lowest SES quintile group. In all countries, smoking and/or alcohol intake were associated with higher odds of developing NCDs, and showed some confounding effects on the SES-NCD relationships. Specifically, in Kenya, the risk of developing NCD was more than two times higher in those in the middle (Q3) SES group (OR 2.493; 95% CI 1.519–4.091; p < 0.001) compared to their lowest (Q1) SES counterparts. After adjusting for smoking and alcohol, the ORs of middle (Q3) SES group changed from 2.493 to 2.241 (1.360–3.721; p = 0.002). Overall, we found that the strength and direction of SES-NCD associations differed within and between countries. This study highlights how different SES contexts shape the risk of NCDs among young adults residing in countries at different levels of economic development.
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    The Effectiveness of Virtual Public Hearings in the Legislative Process
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Silinda, Josiah B.; Mapitsa, Caitlin B.
    During Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the state of disaster nationwide lockdown that was in place in South Africa (SA) between 26 March 2020 and 4 April 2022, the President, on 21 April 2020, announced the “social relief and economic support of R500 billion to mitigate the social and economic devastation caused by the pandemic” Ramaphosa (2020:2). The announcement by President Ramaphosa, COVID-19 environment and the constitutional requirements brought a dilemma to the legislatures in the country regarding ensuring public participation and involvement in the legislative and decision- making processes, Furthermore the announcement necessitated amending the Division of Revenue Act, 2020 to effect the changes. The Minister of Finance introduced the Division of Revenue Amendment Bill in terms of s214 of the Constitution. National Council of Provinces (NCOP) and legislatures in the country had to solicit public inputs and views on the Division of Revenue Amendment Bill [B9- 2020], notwithstanding nationwide lockdown. Parliament and Legislatures made determinations to use virtual mechanism to conduct public hearings. DORA is a money bill which appropriates money in terms of s77 of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. The Money Bills Amendment Procedure and Related Matters Act, provides procedures and standards for amending such a Bill before Parliament and provincial legislature. Act 9 of 2009 (RSA) The study was conducted to investigate the extent to which the use of virtual platform contributed to ensuring that the stakeholders and public are involved in legislative processes, specifical the Division of Revenue Amendment Bill processes. Furthermore, to explore possibilities of using virtual means to solicit inputs and views from interested parties and public at large in legislative processes post COVID-19 period. The researcher decided to use qualitative research methods, wherein semi-structured in-depth interviews, literature review and internal documents analysis to collect data were applied. The data analysis and research findings have revealed that the virtual public hearings have been effective in ensuring that the participants, stakeholders, and members of the public are able to make input in the legislative processes. iii Some participants in the interviews have raised concerns regarding public opinion or input not being considered in the final Bill. What give rise to the perception is that the committee does not come back to do a post public hearing to give feedback on the Bill, according to another participant. The data and findings further point to the need to institutionalize virtual meetings and public hearings in Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal Provincial Legislatures.
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    The in vitro and in vivo potential of metal-chelating agents as metallo-beta-lactamase inhibitors against carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales
    (Oxford University Press, 2023) Omolabi, Kehinde F.; Reddy, Nakita; Mdanda, Sipho; Ntshangase, Sphamandla; Singh, Sanil D.; Kruger, Hendrik G.; Naicker, Tricia; Govender, Thavendran; Bajinath, Sooraj
    The recent surge in beta-lactamase resistance has created superbugs, which pose a current and significant threat to public healthcare. This has created an urgent need to keep pace with the discovery of inhibitors that can inactivate these beta-lactamase producers. In this study, the in vitro and in vivo activity of 1,4,7-triazacyclononane-1,4,7 triacetic acid (NOTA)—a potential metallo-beta-lactamase (MBL) inhibitor was evaluated in combination with meropenem against MBL producing bacteria. Time–kill studies showed that NOTA restored the efficacy of meropenem against all bacterial strains tested. A murine infection model was then used to study the in vivo pharmacokinetics and efficacy of this metal chelator. The coadministration of NOTA and meropenem (100 mg/kg.bw each) resulted in a significant decrease in the colony-forming units of Klebsiella pneumoniae NDM-1 over an 8-h treatment period (>3 log10 units). The findings suggest that chelators, such as NOTA, hold strong potential for use as a MBL inhibitor in treating carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterale infections.