Chinese Engagement in Africa: The Role of Zambia’s Political Dynamics and China’s Engagement in Zambia’s Debt Crisis

Abstract

China has a deep-rooted historical presence in Africa, spanning decades and shaped by geopolitical interests, developmental aid, and strategic investments. Zambia, a country heavily financed by China, was the first African country to default on its sovereign Eurobond repayment in 2020. Within this context, there is a need to explore further the reasons that led to Zambia’s default – whether internal institutional weaknesses drove it, or if it was the result of external financial pressures. This thesis explores Zambia’s debt crisis that led to its 2020 debt default to understand the role that Zambian political dynamics played in intensifying the crisis and the role that China may or may not have played in the default. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combines large-scale quantitative data using Afrobarometer surveys, AidData, and governance indicators, with qualitative data from expert interviews and policy documents. The findings indicate that Zambia’s internal political dynamics, such as political decisions, institutional frailty, and creditor actions, led to Zambia’s debt default in 2020. Consecutive governments accumulated debt-funded infrastructure investments for electoral and personal purposes within a weak parliamentary system, lenient legal frameworks, and lax enforcement mechanisms. The study proposes that in order to address Zambia’s debt crisis, institutions must take greater responsibility, Parliament must strengthen oversight, lawmakers must implement reforms, and officials must ensure openness in foreign loans. Cross-country comparisons with nations such as Angola and Kenya provide further context regarding China’s lending strategy. Chinese lenders must apply stricter due diligence; the need for this cannot be emphasized enough. Zambia’s experience demonstrates the importance of proper governance and oversight systems when large investments are concerned to avoid financial catastrophes