Do Early Elections Matter? An Empirical Investigation into the Long-Term Effects on Political Violence

Abstract

The study aimed to examine the long-term effects of early elections on political violence. Quantitative methods, namely energy balancing and marginal effects analysis, were used to explore the question of whether early elections have long-term effects on the propensity for political vio- lence. The study used a global dataset of post-conflict states comparing the effects on political violence between those that held an election and those that did not across three time periods. We found that states which had an early election tended to have a lower propensity for political vio- lence than those which did not in the medium term. While in the longer term (+10 years) the effect of early elections decreases. Theoretically, the findings suggest that while there is a greater risk of conflict recurrence with early elections, they should not be dismissed as a peace mecha- nism. Rather policy should prioritise mitigating these risks, allowing for greater long-term stability.