Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Adoption in South Africa

Abstract

The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to environmentally friendly electric vehicles (EVs). However, while EV adoption is expanding globally to meet the Paris Agreement goals, South Africa is advancing at a slower pace. In 2023, while 532,092 new vehicles were sold in South Africa, EVs constituted only 1.45% of the total vehicle sales. Although the transport sector significantly contributes to the country’s GDP, it is also responsible for around 11% of carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, to achieve its environmental, regulatory, and economic objectives, South Africa must accelerate its EV adoption. This study investigates the factors influencing the behavioural intention to adopt EVs using the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) framework. Specifically, it examines the impact of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions, hedonic motivation, price value, and habit. This study also posits that government- backed policies and environmental concerns are crucial in accelerating the transition to EVs. Therefore, the influence of government support and environmental concerns was integrated to enhance the theoretical UTAUT2 model, providing a more comprehensive understanding of EV adoption. This study employed a quantitative research approach using a structured 7- point Likert scale online survey. A total of 309 valid survey responses were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling to investigate the empirical fit of the proposed conceptual framework and to test the proposed hypotheses. The findings revealed that social influence had the strongest impact on South Africans’ behavioural intention to adopt EVs. Environmental concerns and effort expectancy were also found to be statistically significant predictors of the intention to adopt an EV. Factors such as government support, performance expectancy, facilitating conditions, price value, hedonic motivation, and habit were found to have little impact on adoption intentions currently due to barriers such as the current insufficient charging infrastructure, issues with unreliable iii electricity supply, high import duties, high costs of EVs, limited awareness about EVs, and lack of robust government incentives or policies to support EV adoption. The results also showed an R² value of 0.775, indicating that 77.5% of the variance in behavioural intention to adopt EVs in South Africa is explained by the UTAUT2 model, suggesting a strong predictive power of the included factors. The findings of this study will inform policymakers and industry stakeholders on developing strategies to overcome barriers and leverage enablers to accelerate EV adoption in South Africa, thereby addressing climate change and maintaining economic competitiveness. This study is also among the first to examine the factors influencing the adoption of EV technology in South Africa using the UTAUT2 model. By doing so, it aims to expand and refine the theoretical understanding of the UTAUT2 framework, offering fresh perspectives on its application in the context of EV adoption and in the context of South Africa. Additionally, this research seeks to contribute to the growing body of knowledge on how government support and environmental concerns influence the adoption of new technologies