The Wind Energy Potential of South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province in a Changing Climate

dc.contributor.authorLandwehr, Gregory Brent
dc.contributor.supervisorEngelbrecht, Francois
dc.contributor.supervisorLennard, Chris
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-06T13:02:54Z
dc.date.issued2024-10
dc.descriptionA thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, to the Faculty of Science, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024.
dc.description.abstractDue to the abundance of wind and solar renewable energy resources across South Africa, and the comparative low cost of installation and operation of wind and solar energy infrastructure, it is inevitable that the country’s dependence on fossil fuels for energy will decline in the future. At a practical level, developing wind energy facilities entails a complex array of activities and the ~20-30 year life spans of such facilities intrinsically implies that they will experience climate change. However, insufficient research and related modelling have been undertaken in South Africa to quantify future variability and systematic changes in the wind resource as it relates to specific synoptic weather types and wind energy production. The aim of this thesis is to develop methodologies to understand the synoptic drivers of regional wind energy production potential and in turn assess how and why South Africa’s wind energy production potential may change as a function of changing circulation patterns in a changing climate. The wind energy potential of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is quantified using energy yield analysis techniques. These results are mapped onto commonly occurring synoptic types for the region to assign an energy potential to each. When the changing frequency of these synoptic weather types is calculated in a climate change impacted future using Global Climate Models, it is possible to quantify the change in wind energy potential in the long term. Results show that the synoptic-circulation pattern with the highest wind energy potential is the Atlantic Ocean ridging High with its centre at about 30 °S, behind a northward displaced mid-latitude cyclone. Global Climate Model projections of the frequency occurrence of these high energy synoptic states show a decrease in frequency at all global warming temperature thresholds and in turn a decrease in wind energy production. The likely cause of this being the poleward expansion of the descending limb of the Hadley circulation which shifts these synoptic systems southwards. The methodologies presented in this thesis provide South Africa with the necessary climate change risk assessment and mitigation capability to address these impacts on the wind energy sector in South Africa.
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation of South Africa through its Earth System Science Research Programme Grant
dc.description.submitterMMM2025
dc.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.identifier0009-0001-6925-6683
dc.identifier.citationLandwehr, Gregory Brent. (2024). The Wind Energy Potential of South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province in a Changing Climate. [PhD thesis, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg]. WIReDSpace. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/45081
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10539/45081
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
dc.rights© 2024 All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
dc.rights.holderUniversity of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
dc.schoolSchool of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies
dc.subjectOnshore wind energy facilities
dc.subjectSynoptic types
dc.subjectWind Energy Meteorology
dc.subjectSelf-organising maps
dc.subjectWind energy production projections
dc.subjectChanging climate
dc.subjectGlobal Climate Models
dc.subjectSouth African Energy System
dc.subjectClimate change risk assessment and mitigation.
dc.subjectUCTD
dc.subject.primarysdgSDG-7: Affordable and clean energy
dc.subject.secondarysdgSDG-13: Climate action
dc.titleThe Wind Energy Potential of South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province in a Changing Climate
dc.typeThesis

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