The Economic Impact of Road Traffic Accidents in the eThekwini Municipality

Abstract

This study investigates the economic impact of Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) in the eThekwini Municipality, with a particular focus on the influence of key economic variables. The economic variables include the eThekwini GDP, inflation, road infrastructure investment, unemployment and traffic volume. The research assesses how these economic variables contribute to the likelihood of RTAs in the municipality and the impact RTAs have in society. The research employs econometric modelling techniques using EViews software, analysing data from 2009 to 2023. A multiple linear regression model was used to estimate the relationship between the independent variables (eThekwini GDP, inflation, road infrastructure, traffic volume, and unemployment) and the dependent variable (RTAs). Diagnostic tests such as the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for heteroskedasticity, the Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation, and Variance Inflation Factor analysis for multicollinearity were conducted to validate the model's accuracy and robustness. The research findings indicate a significant negative relationship between eThekwini GDP and road traffic accidents, while road infrastructure investment shows a negative correlation with RTAs. This suggests that improvements in infrastructure are associated with a reduction in road traffic accidents, as better road conditions and increased safety measures can help mitigate the risk of accidents despite potential increases in traffic flow. Additionally, traffic volume is positively associated with the number of RTAs, highlighting the role of congestion in road safety. Inflation and unemployment, however, exhibit weaker correlations, indicating that while they play a role, their direct impact on RTAs may be more nuanced. The results emphasise the significance of making strategic investments in road infrastructure and traffic management as essential steps to reduce road traffic accident rates. In conclusion, the study's findings suggest that economic policies and planning should give top priority to improving infrastructure and managing traffic volume to promote road safety and preserve the city’s economic burden as results of road traffic accidents. The belief is that these insights provide useful information for policymakers and stakeholders in developing effective measures to tackle road traffic accidents in the eThekwini Municipality and improving the quality of life of eThekwini Municipality households.