Financial Risk in Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions for Southern African Development Community Banks

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of cross-border mergers and acquisitions on financial risk and bank performance in the Southern African Development (SADC) region, where economic uncertainties are prevalent. Focusing on credit, market, and liquidity risks, the analysis draws on data across 14 bank cross-border mergers and acquisitions between 2002 and 2018. The fixed effects model used in this study revealed statistically significant relationships between performance, measured as the principal component variable of return on equity (ROE) and return on earning assets (ROEA); and specific financial risk factors, particularly non- performing loans to total loans as the credit risk proxy and net loans to total assets as the liquidity risk proxy. Firm size also demonstrated a significant relationship to performance. Although the aggregate financial risk variable did not present any statistically significant impact on performance, liquidity risk emerged as the decisive factor in determining bank performance. An increased loan-to-asset ratio was associated with deteriorated bank performance, highlighting the importance of managing liquidity risk effectively. These findings suggest that banks in the SADC region involved in cross-border mergers should reassess their risk management strategies and prioritise liquidity and credit risk management to improve performance and ensure operational sustainability in the SADC region.