Investigating the Challenges of Adopting Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) as a Tool for Mitigating National Security Threats in South Africa – The July 2021 Unrest Case Study

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the challenges faced by the South African intelligence community in adopting Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) as a tool for mitigating national security threats, particularly in light of the failure to predict the July 2021 civil unrest. As we enter the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), technological innovations are reshaping the intelligence collection landscape, with social media technologies offering new methods for addressing national security concerns. Despite the significance of SOCMINT, the South African intelligence agencies have not fully embraced this discipline, contributing to one of the nation's major intelligence failures. While the driving forces and consequences of the July 2021 unrest have been extensively analysed, the reasons behind the intelligence agencies' inability to anticipate it remains underexplored. This interpretive study aimed to uncover these challenges, guided by the Technology-Organisation-Environment (TOE) framework integrated with the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). Data was collected from intelligence experts and analysts to provide a comprehensive perspective on the issue. A single organisation case study approach was adopted to achieve a deeper understanding of the phenomenon within the intelligence community. This study developed an integrated conceptual framework underpinned by the Technology Organisation Environment (TOE) framework and UTAUT Theory. This integrated framework was used to investigate the challenges that hinder the adoption of SOCMINT through a qualitative case study that was conducted in the South African intelligence community. Data for this research was collected from twelve participants representing operations, IT, analysts, and management. Findings revealed that the major challenges experienced are more organisational (Management support, Technology Inclination and Cost) and environmental (Silo, Government Regulations and Coordination) as factors of adoption. From the technological context, there were no major challenges highlighted with the exception of security. Other technological factors or challenges raised by participants, compatibility, expectancy, and performance, were unpersuasive and immaterial to the adoption of SOCMINT.