Techno-economic feasibility study of residential hydrogen fuel cells compared to solar PV systems in South Africa

Abstract

This study critically examines the techno-economic feasibility of residential hydrogen fuel cell systems in South Africa, comparing their viability against solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems. Drawing on the strategic insights of Japan's Panasonic Ene-Farm program, this research employs a quantitative modelling approach, integrating a Fermi estimate framework with mass-energy balance calculations and scenario-based sensitivity analysis. The objective is to elucidate the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of hydrogen fuel cells within the South African residential energy landscape, accounting for technological, economic, and policy- driven variables. The findings reveal that while the Ene-Farm system demonstrates high thermodynamic efficiency through combined electricity generation and heat recovery, its economic sustainability is constrained by a high TCO and dependence on methane as a feedstock. In contrast, solar PV systems, characterized by lower capital costs, zero fuel dependency, and extended operational lifespans, emerge as a more economically viable and scalable alternative. Even under optimistic subsidy scenarios modelled on Japan's policy interventions, hydrogen fuel cells remain significantly less competitive than solar PV, which consistently exhibits a lower cost per unit of energy generated. This study contributes to the broader discourse on residential energy transitions by providing a comparative analysis of two alternative energy pathways. The results highlight key techno-economic considerations for future energy planning in South Africa, where policy frameworks, financial mechanisms, and infrastructure readiness will influence the viability of different technologies. While solar PV presents a compelling case for cost-effectiveness and scalability, hydrogen fuel cells may find application in niche scenarios where their combined heat and power capability provides additional value. These insights offer a data- iii driven perspective for stakeholders evaluating long-term energy strategies in alignment with South Africa's broader sustainability objectives.