Impact of a black swan event on the performance of coal power station mega- projects in South Africa

Abstract

Black swan events such as COVID-19, are extremely rare and unpredictable yet have catastrophic operational impacts. This study examines how such events affect performance and explores strategies to enhance resilience in coal power station mega-projects, using Eskom’s Kusile Power Station as a case study. The research assesses, analyses, and evaluates the impact of COVID-19 on schedule, financial and overall asset creation performance in mega-project construction at Kusile Power Station. A quantitative mono-methodology approach with hypothesis testing was applied to audited and reliable secondary data from Kusile Power Station. This study investigates how COVID-19 factors (presence, lockdown levels, active cases) influenced schedule, financial, and asset performance, with control variables (claims, incidents, workforce size) and risk mitigation strategies as moderators. Descriptive and inferential statistical techniques—including group comparisons, correlation analysis, and regression modelling—were used for data analysis. The outcomes revealed that while schedule performance showed no immediate disruption, significant delayed impacts from COVID-19 emerged compounded by workforce size and lockdown policies. Financial performance suffered an immediate and significant delayed effect driven by COVID-19 disruptions and staffing inefficiencies. Asset Creation Performance experienced an immediate negative effect from COVID-19 and incidents, but mitigation strategies yielded long-term improvements. Risk mitigations provided minimal direct benefits to schedules and financials but improved long-term asset creation performance. Recommendations in the event of a black swan event included optimising resources through staggered shifts and modular team structures to limit the impact of resource inefficiencies on performance. Mitigating lagged shocks by revising force majeure clauses, contract frameworks, and contingency plans for future pandemics. Balancing mitigation strategies and adaptive learning in project management to sustain resilience during black swan events. This study contributes to project management literature by quantifying COVID-19’s impact on mega-projects and proposing actionable strategies for crisis resilience