School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences (ETDs)

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Start date: 2010Subject: search.filters.subject.SDG-13: Climate action

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    The application of machine learning methods to satellite data for the management of invasive water hyacinth
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-06) Singh, Geethe; Reynolds, Chevonne; Byrne, Marcus; Rosman, Benjamin
    Biological invasions are responsible for some of the most devastating impacts on the world’s ecosystems, with freshwater ecosystems among the worst affected. Invasions threaten not only freshwater biodiversity, but also the provision of ecosystem services. Tackling the impact of invasive aquatic alien plant (IAAP) species in freshwater systems is an ongoing challenge. In the case of water hyacinth (Pontederia crassipes, previously Eichhorniae crassipes), the worst IAAP presents a long-standing management challenge that requires detailed and frequently updated information on its distribution, the context that influences its occurrence, and a systematic way to identify effective biocontrol release events. This is particularly urgent in South Africa, where freshwater resources are scarce and under increasing pressure. This research employs recent advances in machine learning (ML), remote sensing, and cloud computing to improve the chances of successful water hyacinth management. This is achieved by (i) mapping the occurrence of water hyacinth across a large extent, (ii) identifying the factors that are likely driving the occurrence of the weed at multiple scales, from a waterbody level to a national extent, and (iii) finally identifying periods for effective biocontrol release. Consequently, the capacity of these tools demonstrates their potential to facilitate wide-scale, consistent, automated, pre-emptive, data-driven, and evidence-based decision making for managing water hyacinth. The first chapter is a general introduction to the research problem and research questions. In the second chapter, the research combines a novel image thresholding method for water detection with an unsupervised method for aquatic vegetation detection and a supervised random forest model in a hierarchical way to localise and discriminate water hyacinth from other IAAP’s at a national extent. The value of this work is marked by the comparison of the user (87%) and producer accuracy (93%) of the introduced method with previous small-scale studies. As part of this chapter, the results also show the sensor-agnostic and temporally consistent capability of the introduced hierarchical approach to monitor water and aquatic vegetation using Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 for long periods (from 2013 - present). Lastly, this work demonstrates encouraging results when using a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to directly detect aquatic vegetation and circumvents the need for accurate water extent data. The two chapters that follow (Chapter 3 and 4 described below) introduce an application each that build off the South African water hyacinth distribution and aquatic vegetation time series (derived in Chapter 2). The third chapter uses a species distribution model (SDM) that links climatic, socio-economic, ecological, and hydrological conditions to the presence/absence of water hyacinth throughout South Africa at a waterbody level. Thereafter, explainable AI (xAI) methods (specifically SHapley Additive exPlanations or SHAP) are applied to better understand the factors that are likely driving the occurrence of water hyacinth. The analyses of 82 variables (of 140 considered) show that the most common group of drivers primarily associated with the occurrence of water hyacinth in South Africa are climatically related (41.4%). This is followed by natural land cover categories (32.9%) and socio-economic variables (10.7%), which include artificial land-cover. The two least influential groups are hydrological variables (10.4%) including water seasonality, runoff, and flood risk, and ecological variables (4.7%) including riparian soil conditions and interspecies competition. These results suggest the importance of considering landscape context when prioritising the type (mechanical, biological, chemical, or integrated) of weed management to use. To enable the prioritisation of suitable biocontrol release dates, the fourth chapter forecasts 70-day open water proportion post-release as a reward for effective biocontrol. This enabled the simulation of the effect of synthetic biocontrol release events under a multiarmed bandit framework for the identification of two effective biocontrol release periods (late spring/early summer (mid-November) and late summer (late February to mid-March)). The latter release period was estimated to result in an 8-27% higher average open-water cover post-release compared to actual biocontrol release events during the study period (May 2018 - July 2020). Hartbeespoort Dam, South Africa, is considered as a case study for improving the pre-existing management strategy used during the biocontrol of water hyacinth. The novel frameworks introduced in this work go a long way in advancing IAAP species management in the age of both ongoing drives towards the adoption of artificial intelligence and sustainability for a better future. It goes beyond (i) traditional small-scale and infrequent mapping, (ii) standard SDMs, to now include the benefits of spatially explicit model explainability, and (iii) introduces a semi-automated and widely applicable method to explore potential biocontrol release events. The direct benefit of this work, or indirect benefits from derivative work outweighs both the low production costs or equivalent field and lab work. To improve the adoption of modern ML and Earth Observation (EO) tools for invasive species management, some of the developed tools are publicly accessible. In addition, a human-AI symbiosis that combines strengths and compensates for weaknesses is strongly recommended. For each application, directions are provided for future research based on the drawbacks and limitations of the introduced systems. These future efforts will likely increase the adoption of EO-derived products by water managers and improve the reliability of these products.
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    The impact of nickel and chrome mine tailings on the growth of Hibiscus cannabinus and Linum usitatissimum and a preliminary assessment of their applicability as economically beneficial phytoremediation species
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-07) Campbell, Tiago Roberto; Furniss, David; Scholes, Mary
    Current and previous mining activities in South Africa have caused various environmental, human health and societal impacts. This has led to the formation and enforcement of legislation regarding the rehabilitation of active, closed and abandoned mines in South Africa. The requirements contained in this legislation include rehabilitation, skills transfer, job creation and development of post mine land use regarding active, closed and abandoned mines. A common impact of mining activities is the contamination of soils with various metals. The process of phytoremediation has demonstrated potential in the remediation of metal contaminated soils. Plant species commonly utilised in this process are hyper accumulators, which can translocate and accumulate high concentrations of various metals from soils into their biomass. However, large areas of previously economically productive land become underutilised when hyper-accumulators are used for phytoremediation. Economically valuable fibrous plant species have demonstrated potential in their use as phytoremediation species. This presents an opportunity in which economically valuable plant species could be utilised in phytoremediation applications on active, closed and abandoned mines in South Africa. Thus, the aim of this research was to assess the ability of Hibiscus cannabinus and Linum usitatissimum to grow in and extract metals from soil contaminated with nickel and chrome mine tailings. Furthermore, the concurrent use of H. cannabinus and L. usitatissimum as phytoremediative and economically beneficial plant species was determined. Normal (non impacted), rehabilitated (previously impacted) and tailings (impacted) soil treatments were collected and used from the Onverwacht tailings storage facility of Nkomati Nickel mine. Hibiscus cannabinus and L. usitatissimum were cultivated in each soil treatment in greenhouse conditions over a six-month period. Multiple plant growth parameters were recorded at monthly intervals. The amount (mg) and concentration (mg/kg) of Mn, Zn, Ni, Cu, Cr and Co contained within plant tissue samples at the end of the six-month period was determined. The area (ha) of land categories available for H. cannabinus and L. usitatissimum cultivation onsite was determined using Sentinel 2B satellite imagery and supervised image classification. The measured and expected total yield (t), yield value (R), profit/loss margin (R) and amount (g/ha) of Mn, Zn, Ni, Cu, Cr and Co extracted through cultivation of H. cannabinus and L. usitatissimum onsite was determined. The growth of H. cannabinus and L. usitatissimum cultivated in rehabilitated soil was severely impacted. While growth of each species exhibited minimal differences between those cultivated in normal and tailings soil. Hibiscus cannabinus consistently exhibited greater growth than L. usitatissimum. Both species demonstrated the ability to accumulate varying amounts and concentrations of each of the tested metals in their total, above and below ground components. Both species consistently accumulated increased amounts and concentrations of Mn and Zn. Those cultivated in tailings soil exhibited increased accumulation of Cr. Linum usitatissimum generally accumulated metals at higher concentrations than H. cannabinus, however, minimal differences in the amount of metal accumulated between species were observed. Based on the measured yield cultivation of each species onsite would result in economic loss and generally low metal extraction. However, based on the expected yield, species cultivation onsite, in normal and tailings soil, would result in economic gain and generally high metal extraction. Hibiscus cannabinus and L. usitatissimum exhibited phytoremediative and economic potential. Aspects of the current state of mine impacted land in South Africa and the requirements of rehabilitation enforced through South African legislation could possibly be addressed through the application of H. cannabinus and L. usitatissimum for mine rehabilitation strategies.
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    Using the South African Diatom Index (SADI) to determine the present ecological status of the Crocodile River, Kruger National Park
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-08) Thamae, Seeng; Snow, Gavin; Parrini, Francesca
    The Crocodile River in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa is a river of great economic significance, while providing support to the surrounding aquatic and riparian ecosystems through ecological processes of chemical, hydrological, and geomorphological nature. This river forms part of the Inkomati River Basin, which serves as a transboundary basin shared between the Republic of South Africa, Mozambique and Eswatini. The importance of the effective management of transboundary water resources, from an African perspective, cannot be stressed enough due to the water-scarce nature of the Southern African region, particularly South Africa. Incorporating Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Strategic Adaptive Management approaches into the governance of water resources can aid in the protection of both the quality and quantity of the country’s freshwater reserve. Good governance of water resources is essential in the conservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystem biodiversity, as well as meeting the basic human needs reserve, which is essential to meet people’s daily drinking, food preparation and personal hygiene requirements. The Crocodile River is not immune to pollution of anthropogenic origin, such as urbanisation, mining, agriculture, and industrial by-products. The above mentioned constitutes some of the direct and indirect results of large-scale stresses that are exerted on a river system, mainly owing to environmental factors such as landscape, demographic, atmospheric and hydrologic changes. A few practical examples of these factors include changing population dynamics and resultant land-use requirements, accompanied by compromised riparian vegetations arising from the altered land-use. All this necessitates the regular monitoring of the quality of water in this river system. The outcome of regular river monitoring is essential to the protection of this resource through regulation and policy. The use of physico-chemical parameters to determine the health of the Crocodile River has assisted in identifying compromised aquatic and riparian ecosystems and ultimately recommending relevant mitigation strategies necessary in maintaining an acceptable standard of water quality. Incorporating biomonitoring techniques, wherein aquatic microorganisms are used to infer water quality, as a tool to assess the health of a river ecosystem has proven useful, mainly due to the sensitivity of periphyton assemblages (algae, cyanobacteria, diatoms) to changing river conditions, based on nutrients and physico-chemical parameters. The use of these organisms, in bio-assessments of aquatic ecosystems has been key to overall river health monitoring. This study highlights how diatoms, through their published ecological data, can contribute to the Resource Directed Measures method of determining the Present Ecological Status of a river, using the Crocodile (East) River as a case study. The current study was developed to assess the ecological category of the Crocodile River, along the southern boundary of the Kruger National Park. Four sampling sites were identified for the study, from which water samples were collected during September 2019, October 2019, and March 2020 sampling sessions. The basis of this was to investigate the changes in diatom communities and dominant microphytobenthos (MPB) groups (based on the tolerance to fluctuating environmental conditions amongst the various species) in response to the spatio-temporal changes in the quality and quantity of water at the four sites throughout the study period. These results were then compared to past studies to determine if there has been a change in river health over the past decade. Physico-chemical variables were measured in situ using a YSI Professional Plus (Pro Plus) multi-parameter instrument, which included temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, and dissolved oxygen. The benthic microalgal biomass of cyanobacteria, green algae and diatoms was quantified from the fluorescent signatures of the groups in situ using a bbe BenthoTorch. The bbe BenthoTorch is a hand-held apparatus that uses in situ quantification of chlorophyll-a fluorescence as an index of benthic algal biomass. The diatoms present in the samples were later prepared and isolated for microscopic identification and individual counts. The Relative Abundance (RA%) of dominant diatom species and the ecological category of each sampling site was determined using OMNIDIA software based South African Diatom Index (SADI). Ecological categories using the SADI range from A (good quality) to E (bad quality). Data analyses include the use of ordination plots (CCA and PCA) to evaluate the response of the dominant diatom species to changing environmental variables and the interspecific relationships between the diatom species in each assemblage, based on their ecological requirements. The study revealed that the ecological status of the Crocodile River when compared to previous studies had remained the same; C (moderate quality). This finding supports the use of the South African Diatom Index (SADI) in determining the Present Ecological State of the Crocodile River, in the Kruger National Park. There have been similar studies in other river systems within the Kruger National Park, wherein diatoms (specifically diatom-based index scores) were used to infer the water quality, at the time, in comparison to historic / benchmark water quality parameters. These studies were conducted in the Olifants, Letaba and the Sabie rivers of the park. The viability of these studies is motivated by benthic diatoms being particularly sensitive to changes in water quality, making them an ideal indicator of river health that is complementary to the current suite of biomonitoring tools. This method has immense potential in South Africa, provided that more focus is placed on diatoms and investment made in capacitating researchers and diatom taxonomists with the skills to perpetuate this vast field of study.
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    South African Podocarpaceae distribution interpreted from a physiological and population genetics perspective
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-09) Twala, Thando Caroline; Fisher, Jolene T.; Glennon, Kelsey L.
    Podocarpaceae (podocarp) are the most diverse conifer family with a Southern Hemisphere distribution. Podocarps occur in Afrotemperate and Afromontane forests at high elevations that are cool and humid. Podocarps once dominated the forest canopy but due to their slower growth rate and photosynthetic rates they have are in competition withangiosperms which have faster growing and higher photosynthetic rate. Due to the competition between podocarps and angiosperms, Bond (1989) proposed that podocarps were excluded to nutrient poor and unfavourable environments due to their limited competitive ability. However, podocarps persist under the forest canopy until conditions become favourable. This power dynamic shifts with climate oscillations where podocarps distributions expand and dominate when conditions become cooler. Owing to podocarps being the most diverse and widespread conifers they make for a good study system. This thesis focuses on understanding the climatic variables driving the current and future distribution of podocarps, how their seedling physiology may influence their ability to recruit and establish under climate change, and how this can influence their ability to disperse in their South African distribution. Ensemble species distribution modelling was used to characterise the current and future distribution of podocarps and identify the climatic variables that influence their distribution. The current and future environmental niche was quantified using environmental niche modelling. I found that variables predicting rainfall seasonality were the most important at determining the distribution of podocarps in South Africa. Afrocarpus falcatus and P. latifolius were predicted to have the largest geographic distribution, with P. henkelii and P. elongatus having restricted distributions. Both A. falcatus and P. latifolius were predicted to occur in the Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces of South Africa. Podocarpus henkelii was predicted to occur in the KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces. Podocarpus elongatus is endemic to the Western Cape Province. All four podocarps were predicted to expand to higher altitudes (up the escarpment) under climate change and contract in its coastal distribution. Although P. elongatus was predicted to occupy the smallest geographic distribution it was predicted to have the widest environmental niche than the other species, which was predicted to contract under climate change. The environmental niche of P. latifolius and P. henkelii was predicted to remain stable. Afrocarpus falcatus, P. latifolius, and P. henkelii showed niche conservatism, however, P. elongatus under RCP 4.5 → current and the RCP 8.5↔ current niche comparisons showed niche divergence. Podocarpus elongatus was predicted to expand to an environment it currently does not occupy. Ecophysiological and morphological experiments were conducted to understand how podocarp seedlings respond to drought and elevated temperatures. The experiments indicated that P. henkelii seedlings were more drought and heat tolerant than A. falcatus seedlings. Conditions are predicted to become hotter and drier in some parts of South Africa, and this study has shown that P. henkelii seedlings will be able to tolerate these conditions better than A. falcatus seedlings. Furthermore, this suggests that the distribution of P. henkelii is not constrained by its physiology but rather by other mechanisms such as competition, reproductive biology, and/or shade tolerance. Microsatellites were used to inform us about possible podocarp dispersal patterns in A. falcatus, P. latifolius and P. henkelii in South Africa. The results suggested that podocarp populations in South Africa were shown to have higher genetic diversity than other podocarps globally, however these results may be due to the limited number of microsatellites used in this study, smaller population sizes in comparison to other studies and methods used to measure population structure and diversity. As expected, the geographically widespread species (A. falcatus and P. latifolius) are more diverse than the geographically restricted P. henkelii. Geographically distant A. falcatus and P. henkelii populations showed higher differentiation than geographically proximal populations. In P. latifolius South African populations, there was strong isolation by distance. Although the distribution of podocarps is disjunct, there is dispersal between populations. Podocarps are resilient to climate change as was demonstrated by the work in this thesis, and by their paleodistribution expanding and contracting with climate oscillations. In this thesis I considered climate, ecophysiology and genetics as determinants of podocarps distribution. Under climate change, podocarps are predicted to expand to higher elevations to track favourable climatic conditions. Seasonal drought is the most important climatic determinant of podocarp distribution. The ability of these species to tolerate drought and heat stress suggests that the seedlings might be able to tolerate short periods of drought and heat stress, however prolonged exposure may lead to seedling mortality, but populations will then be maintained by adults. Populations show evidence of gene flow, indicating they will be able to persist through changing climates, as they have done in the past. This thesis has highlighted that the factors constraining podocarp distributions might be demographic, and future works should investigate the role of fire in podocarp seedling establishment and longevity, as well as their interactions with angiosperm competitors.
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    Characterizing microclimates as potential thermal buffers for reptiles, birds, and mammals in an arid-zone environment
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Warner, Grace M.; Alexander, Graham J.; Fuller, Andrea
    Aridification, increases in air temperatures and frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, are predicted to intensify under climate change, suggesting dire consequences for dryland animals. Microhabitats may buffer dryland animals against the changing climate, yet microclimatic data remains scarce from Africa and arid regions. The distribution, abundance, and thermal buffering capacity of five microhabitat types (burrows, nests, rock crevices, tree hollows and vegetation) were investigated across three habitat types (dunes, plains, and mountains) in the Kalahari. The distribution and abundance of microhabitats were assessed via strip transects, while thermal buffering capacity was evaluated by comparing miniature black globe temperatures from 70 representative sheltered microhabitats with 12 localised exposed-site microhabitats. The data generated have provided a baseline measure of the abundance and distribution of microhabitats in the Kalahari and have produced a year-long fine-resolution microclimatic thermal dataset. Microhabitat types and abundance were found to differ per habitat type and across topographic gradients. Abiotic drivers, such as soil type and fire frequency, along with drivers such as biotic community composition, were highlighted as potential causes of these microhabitat distribution patterns. Burrows were the best buffered microhabitat across all tested temporal and spatial gradients, providing an average maximum decrease of -29.5 ˚C during the day, and an average maximum increase of 20.1 ˚C during the night. Well-buffered microhabitats were rare within the field-site, whereas some of the poorest buffering microhabitats (Vegetation) were abundant and widespread. Thus, competition for well-buffered microhabitats may increase under climate change, whilst the risk of traversing large distances between microhabitats may become too great for smaller animals as exposure risk to extreme temperatures increases. Furthermore, birds and large mammals may likely be at a high risk of extreme temperature exposure, as their size and structural adaptations may restrict them from access to well-buffered microhabitats. Therefore, the need for the concurrent assessments of microhabitat distribution, abundance and buffering capacity in future species vulnerability assessments is highlighted, as it is the combination of these factors that are likely to impact population viability under climate change.
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    Factors affecting mammal utilisation of non-wildlife railway underpasses within the Greater Kruger, South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) de Villiers, Hannah; Parrini, Francesca; Teren, Gabriella
    Railways are an integral component of sustainable transport systems, but cause significant impacts to biodiversity, primarily through wildlife-train collisions and the habitat fragmentation created in the landscape. Crossing structures (CSs) for wildlife are the key mitigation measure for these adverse impacts, which will be critical throughout Africa, where 55,000 km of new railway lines are predicted to cut through hundreds of protected areas. For the first time in southern Africa, mammal usage of railway underpasses that were not designed to facilitate wildlife movement was studied using camera traps in the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa. This study demonstrates that 70% of the terrestrial medium and large mammals species present in the area used at least one non-wildlife CS during the study period, with a total of 1,823 usage events by 33 species. Twelve medium to large African mammal species used underpasses regularly, improving the permeability of the railway line for these species. A viaduct design was characterised by almost four times the usage rate of a typical box culvert and was used by twice as many species, including megaherbivores and mesoherbivores, whereas box culverts supported a smaller number of species, of which the majority were predators. Species most affected by rail collisions in the study area were mostly herbivorous and seldom used non-wildlife underpasses. These results indicate that a railway line with only drainage culverts and the occasional viaduct is not effective in providing adequate safe crossing structures for megaherbivores and ungulate mesoherbivores. Contrary to expectations, vegetation and environmental factors influenced mammal usage of box culverts more than structural dimensions. Ensuring that there is high visibility through the structure, with less herbaceous cover and more woody cover outside of entrances, is likely to enhance culvert usage by most trophic groups. In a savanna context where faunal diversity is high and no single species is a target for mitigation, a range of underpass designs including larger viaducts, located in different types of vegetation cover, thereby combining the range of requirements of different guilds, is recommended.
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    The past, present and future of cactus invasions in South Africa in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Venter, Nicolaas; Byrne, Marcus
    Cactaceae originate from the Americas and over the past 250 years have been introduced into South Africa and elsewhere for agricultural and horticultural purposes. Numerous species, including useful taxa, have become important invasive weeds that have serious socio-economic and environmental impacts. Fortunately, management strategies, in particular biological control, have been successful in controlling certain species. However, with rising atmospheric CO2 invasive cacti are likely to pose a renewed threat, whereby evidence shows that cactus species are responsive to CO2 fertilisation, which is likely to increase their vigour, mainly through improved water use efficiency (WUE). Additionally, studies show that plant quality declines with increasing CO2 which in general has negative effects on their arthropod herbivores. This study sought to determine the effect of CO2 on two functionally different invasive cactus species and how they may respond to predicted increases in atmospheric CO2. Opuntia stricta (a succulent shrub) is an obligate CAM photosynthetic species that invades grasslands and savannas across semi-arid to subtropical environments whereas Pereskia aculeata (a scrambling woody vine with well-developed leaves) is a CAM-cycling photosynthetic species that invades forest type habits across subtropical environments. Plants were grown at three CO2 concentrations that represented pre-industrial (sub-ambient - 250 ppm), current (ambient - 400 ppm) and future (elevated - 600 ppm) atmospheric CO2 conditions. Plants were also subject to suboptimal and optimal watering treatments for the duration of the experiments to determine the ameliorative effect of CO2 on productivity in response soil moisture deficits. In addition, an experiment was conducted on O. stricta to test the effects of the three CO2 concentrations on plant quality and the subsequent effect on the fitness and efficacy of its insect biological control agent, Dactylopius opuntiae. Growth and productivity of O. stricta and P. aculeata responded positively to increasing CO2, however the responses varied with CO2 concentration. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration from date of introduction to present possibly facilitated O. stricta invasion whereas this was less likely for P. aculeata. In both species WUE increased with increasing CO2. Under suboptimal watering, there was partial amelioration of productivity at 600 ppm CO2, but the plant traits that benefitted varied according to species. Plant quality declined for both species, most notably cladode nitrogen (N) content decreased, and carbon/nitrogen ratios (C/N) increased. When D. opuntiae were exposed to O. stricta grown at elevated CO2 (only tested on well-watered plants), D. opuntiae fitness was reduced which in turn reduced the rates of plant mortality due to the insect damage. Using the WUE results from O. stricta, a mechanistic species distribution model (SDM) created here predicted greater increases in its potential distribution in South Africa under climate change relative to the SDM that did not include WUE as a predictor variable. This suggests that improved WUE under future CO2 concentrations can offset the effect of declining rainfall in certain regions of South Africa. Overall, these results suggest that O. stricta and P. aculeata will show more vigorous growth and are also likely to expand their ranges into regions where rainfall currently limits their distribution. This expanded distribution may be further facilitated by reduced biocontrol agent efficacy as host plant quality declines. These findings suggest that management of these two species and other invasive cacti is likely to become more challenging with increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change.
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    Modelling current and future distributions of Warburgia species at continental (Africa) and local (South Africa) scales Samista Kim
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Rooplal, Samista Kim; Thompson, D.I.; Glennon, K.L.; Witkowski, E.T.F.
    Warburgia is a genus of trees and shrubs that is greatly valued in Africa for its use in traditional medicine. The genus contains four species, one of which has two subspecies: Warburgia elongata, W. salutaris, W. stuhlmannii, W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and Wugandensis subsp. ugandensis. Individuals are harvested primarily for their bark, which contains pharmacological compounds that are used to treat various ailments. Due to the high demand, species within the genus are overharvested throughout their range and have consequently become threatened by extinction. Warburgia salutaris, the pepper-bark tree, is the only species of the genus that naturally occurs in South Africa. Like its congeners, Wasalutaris is heavily exploited for its bark and has been listed as IUCN Endangered in South Africa. This dissertation, therefore, assesses the distributions of Warburgia species in eastern and southern Africa to identify new, potentially suitable areas to increase population numbers to aid in the conservation of the genus. The aim of the first part of the study was to assess the eastern and southern African distributions of Warburgia species. Species distribution models (SDMs) were created for the four Warburgia species and two subspecies, and the geographic distributions and key environmental predictors were identified for each taxon. Environmental niche analyses were also performed to understand whether the two subspecies of W. ugandensis should be considered as a single species in accordance with the ecological species concept. The second part of the study aimed to assess how the current South African distribution of W. salutaris will be affected by future climate change. An SDM was produced to assess the current distribution of W. salutaris in South Africa and identify its key predictor climate variables. The SDM was then extrapolated into the future (2070) using two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which are greenhouse gas emission scenarios that predict future climates under a probable and extreme scenario, respectively. Ecological niche analyses were also used to assess the degree to which W. salutaris’ climatic niche will change in response to the two climate change scenarios. Results showed that the distributions of Warburgia species are restricted and primarily influenced by climatic variables that likely impact their seeds’ and seedlings’ sensitivity to water stress and desiccation. Ecological niche modelling results show that the climatic niches of W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and W. ugandensis subsp. ugandensis are identical and should therefore be considered as a single species according to the ecological species concept. The South African distribution of W. salutaris is fragmented and restricted. The species’ current and future distribution is influenced by its sensitivity to frost and the fact that it produces seeds that are susceptible to drying out. SDMs predicted that the distribution of W. salutaris will shrink in eastern Limpopo and in parts of Mpumalanga, but increase in eastern KwaZulu-Natal by 2070 under both climate change scenarios. Overall, this species was predicted to contract from the Indian Ocean coastal belt and grassland biomes and expand into the savanna biome. This study has expanded our knowledge of the distributions and environmental drivers of Warburgia species. It was found that in general, Warburgia species have restricted ranges that are likely governed by their sensitivity to desiccation at the seed and seedling stages. Climate change is anticipated to negatively impact the populations of many plant species, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the environmental niche of W. salutaris will remain stable, its geographical distribution was predicted to expand further in the savanna biome along the eastern coast of South Africa in response to climate change. Results from this study support pursuing different conservation techniques, including propagating Warburgia populations around the Great Lakes of Africa and Mt. Kenya and in western Limpopo and eastern KwaZulu-Natal for W. salutaris only. This study therefore emphasizes the importance of using SDMs as a baseline to inform effective conservation efforts for important medicinal plant species
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    Quantifying and Mapping Urban Ecosystem Services in Johannesburg, South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Friemond, Joseph
    Modern cities face a wide range of challenges such as flooding and heat stress, which are driven by urbanisation and exacerbated by the impacts of climatic change. The ecosystem services provided by green spaces in cities have become a crucial element in addressing these challenges by supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation. The first step in maintaining and improving the supply of these services is their quantification and mapping. However, large knowledge gaps exist in South Africa and Johannesburg relating to the provision of urban ecosystem services. This study aimed to quantify the supply of three important urban ecosystem services (carbon storage, runoff retention and cooling) and map their distribution across the wards of Johannesburg. Carbon storage was quantified through field sampling of four urban forest types (roadside trees, parks, gardens and nature reserves) and the use of biomass equations. InVEST's urban flood risk mitigation model was used to quantify runoff retention, while cooling was quantified by deriving land surface temperatures from Landsat satellite imagery, which were then used as inputs for a cooling indicator. All three services were mapped across the wards of Johannesburg and then normalised for comparison. The results revealed that Johannesburg's urban forest stores 2.4 million tonnes of carbon, with significant differences in carbon storage between forest types. Johannesburg’s ecosystem services provide great value in mitigating urban challenges, retaining 20.9 million m3 of runoff during a 50 mm storm, and providing cooling services across most of the city. However, the supply of these services is unequal, with large spatial disparities between the northern and southern regions in the city. Numerous wards receive critically low supply of these services, making them vulnerable to the impacts of climatic change. The northern- central wards have optimal supply of all three services, highlighting synergies between services. Ultimately, these three services have immense value in the Johannesburg context and play key roles in supporting the city’s climate change mitigation and adaptation, through the multi-functional delivery of ecosystem services from urban green infrastructure. By mapping these services at the ward scale, our findings can be used to accurately inform authorities and decision makers of priority areas for intervention, as well as key areas for conservation
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    Heat-related health impacts: the responses of local governments to current and emerging heat extremes in the Gauteng province
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Riley, Bradley; Vogel, Coleen
    In recent years, particularly during the last few summer seasons across the globe, there has been growing attention to the impacts of heat on human health due to unprecedented extreme heat and heatwave events. Cities and urban areas are especially at risk due to enhanced urbanisation and anthropogenic activities, leading to increased heat-related deaths and hospitalisation. Although many cities globally have developed adaptation approaches to address the current and emerging heat risks, heat adaptation strategies and planning in an African context have been poorly recognised despite the continent warming at double the rate of global temperatures. The high vulnerability of African cities due to poverty and poor socio-economic conditions, coupled with these temperature extremes, puts African societies at the forefront of future heat-related health impacts. South Africa is one African country that has recognised these growing heat risks and provided frameworks in their national and municipal policy and planning instruments. However, implementing and mainstreaming heat action across institutional structures remains a challenge. This study investigated the extent of current heat responses within three metropolitan municipalities in the Gauteng Province, South Africa, in the cities of Tshwane, Ekhuruleni and Johannesburg; to advance heat action within the local government and institutional structures of the province. In this mixed-methods research design, local officials from the municipality’s Environmental Health Department in each metro were interviewed, and a perception-informed assessment of vulnerability to heat-related health impacts was developed using Principal Component Analysis. Through interviews with the local Environmental Health Officials, it was revealed that extreme heat is not a priority within the Department, as heat action is neither mandated nor budgeted for, leading to a misalignment between policy and implementation. The ability of the Department to unlock its full potential for heat action is constrained by many challenges, highlighted by three central themes: (1) Resource capacity and the ripple effects, (2) Policy-implementation gap and (3) Interdepartmental coordination. Despite this, the Department has the potential to unlock many opportunities for future heat responses, highlighted by four central themes: (1) Existing systems: connecting the dots, (2) Power in unity: embracing a collaborative approach, (3) Mandated heat action and (4) Specialised heat action units. Additionally, this study demonstrated how a heat vulnerability assessment tool could be created using heat-specific socio-economic variables. This reveals the spatial distribution of vulnerability throughout the metro’s and highlights high levels of vulnerability within rural and informal settlements due to poverty, lack of access to resources and services and poor living conditions in these areas. Such an approach can offer valuable insights into the populations and areas most susceptible and at risk of heat-related health impacts, which can aid in developing targeted heat action responses and plans. Finally, this study contributes