Wits Business School (ETDs)

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Subject: search.filters.subject.Stocks--Prices

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    Impact of oil price shocks on stock returns: evidence from selected Southeast Asian economies
    (2017) Siddiqui, Ammar Ahmed
    This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns in selected Southeast Asian countries. We selected five countries, those are Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia Thailand and Philippine. We employ autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and VECM model in the analysis. We model both positive oil price shock and negative oil price shock. We find that the real Brent price is positively correlated with all the stock markets in the selected countries. The results of ARDL model indicate that positive oil price shock exhibits a negative impact on the stock market returns while lag one negative oil price shock exhibits a positive impact on the stock market returns in the short run. However, only Indonesia and Singapore exhibit a significant response to positive and negative oil shocks in the ARDL model. The cointegration analysis indicates a long run causal relationship from oil price to stock market returns for Malaysia and Singapore. This result is confirmed by the error correction model with significant and negative but low speed of adjustment.
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    International stock market linkages: the case of Zimbabwe and South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017) Manungo, Rusununguko Conwell; Kodongo, Odongo
    The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it aims to investigate whether or not there are both short run and long run bilateral linkages between the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) markets. Secondly, it aims to find out whether or not the extent of linkages between the two markets has been changing over time. The results of the study can be stated simply: - correlation coefficients calculated for the two sub-periods 1980(1)–1990(12) (apartheid in South Africa and independence in Zimbabwe, but still some controls on the economy) and 1991(1)–1999(12) (death of apartheid in South Africa and financial liberalization in Zimbabwe) show that they were not constant overtime. The extent of the linkage has been increasing overtime. Bivariate co-integration tests indicate that there is a common trend linking the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange stock price indices in the period 1991–1999, but none was found for the period 1980-1990. The results suggest that the interrelations between the two markets have increased overtime. They are in line with macroeconomic trends that have taken place since 1991, which were sufficient to strengthen the linkages between the markets, including capital market liberalization, securitization of national markets and a significant increase in cross - listing of stocks of multinational and national companies.This paper thus provides new empirical evidence on international stock market linkages between the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange