School of Social Sciences (ETDs)

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A computational study of media bias in South African online political news reporting over the period 2021 - 2023
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Ngwenya, Nonhlanhla Nomusa; Alence, Rod
The study examined the presence of tonality bias in South African political news reporting over the period 2021 until mid-2023. The study employed the methods of the Lexicoder Sentiment Dictionary, a lexical-based method, and Latent Semantic Scaling, a semi-supervised machine learning method. Sentiment was utilised as a proxy for tonality. Online commercial media publishers were contrasted against the state-owned news publisher to ascertain how online news reporting contributed to shaping the national agenda, and the framing of political actors and their respective political parties. The Lexicoder Sentiment Dictionary and the Latent Semantic Scaling evidenced that commercial media publishers exhibited positive tonality bias for the Democratic Alliance during the 2021 Municipal Elections. South African media publishers were found to exhibit consistent negative tonality bias when reporting on protest action. The state-owned media publisher was found to drive a pro ruling party sentiment whereas commercial media publishers’ sentiment was anti- populist and agenda-setting. The congruency in political news reporting gave grounds to the call for diversity in publishing
Exploring Personality Structure in South Africa: A Text Mining Approach
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024-03-15) Gama, Beauty; Alence, Rod; Laher, Sumaya
Physical expression, behavioural attributes and social relations of an individual can often be studied through personality traits. This has made personality research a relevant aspect of gaining a deeper understanding of people in various contexts, for clinical reasons as well as social relatability. Trait theory has been fundamental in utilizing statistical methods such as factor analysis to construct the personality models that currently exist. The Five Factor Model (FFM) is amongst the most widely accepted of these trait theory models. Personality assessment instruments are developed as operationalisations of these models. These include the Goldberg Adjective Checklist, the South African Personality Inventory (SAPI), and the Chinese Personality Assessment Inventory (CPAI). Recently, naturally occurring data like social media statuses or Facebook Posts are being considered as data examining personality structure. This study aims to explore personality structure data obtained from South African literary texts and text mining techniques. Various techniques of text mining such as parts of speech tagging, and unsupervised and supervised LDA topic modelling were applied to 60 South African literary texts. While topic modelling showed limitations when used in an unsupervised manner, when guided by thematic clusters it presented comprehensible trait classifications that fit with the clusters as defined by the FFM. The instances where there was no fit corresponded with the literature which demonstrates poor fit for those constructs in African constructs. The results also showed that there is a difference in the expression of personality traits between men and women with the differences concurring with those found in the broader literature on gender differences across personality. While the text corpus for this study was small, there is evidence to suggest that text mining techniques could be used to assist in research on personality structure. Text mining is an approach that requires further research as it can be useful in dealing with large data that is naturally occurring to provide a better contextual exploration of personality.
Governance quality and popular support for democracy in Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Mongae, Mmabatho; Alence, Rod
The stability of democracy depends on citizens’ support for and satisfaction with democracy as a form of government. Yet the past decade has seen a public backlash against democracy worldwide, and Africa is no exception. This study aims to clarify the determinants of public perceptions of democracy, in particular how the quality of governance in African democracies affects public perceptions of democracy as a preferred system of government. Are citizens more likely to be supportive of and satisfied with democracy in countries that score higher on indicators of political and economic governance quality? This thesis addresses this question using a mixed methods approach. The study harnesses multi-level statistical analysis, incorporating national-level governance indicators from the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), and Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), alongside individual-level survey data from Afrobarometer covering thirty-four African countries. The statistically selected case studies of Sudan, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe probe more deeply by capturing various experiences with democracy. The central finding is that public support for democracy in Africa depends significantly on the quality of governance. However, support for democracy is not based purely “instrumentally” on the receipt of material benefits, as citizens also value the practical provision of political freedoms and protections “intrinsic” to democracy. These findings challenge existing assumptions about the transactional nature of democratic support, highlighting the critical role of governance quality in fostering a deep-rooted commitment to democratic ideals. By foregrounding the lived experiences of African citizens within democratic systems, this thesis contributes to the discourse on democracy in Africa. It shifts the analytical lens from abstract institutional performance metrics to the tangible democratic encounters of individuals, providing a richer, more textured understanding of democratic resilience and support on the continent. Through this approach, the study not only responds to the existing gaps in literature but also offers fresh insights into the complex dynamics that underpin public attitudes towards democracy in Africa, thereby enhancing our understanding of the factors that promote or hinder democratic engagement and support
Studying Political Discourse at COP Using Text Mining
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-07) Meletakos, Christina; Eyita-Okon, Ekeminiabasi; Alence, Rod
Climate change has become one of the most pressing issues of our time and it is increasingly important for nations to come together and address the crisis. Every year since 1995, countries from around the world congregate at COP (Conference of the Parties) in the attempt to find consensus on how to tackle the problem. This dissertation studies the political speeches given by country representatives at the conference. 552 transcripts were used to perform multiple analyses. A sentiment study showed that the majority of speeches were overwhelmingly positive, and that the language used by delegates showed that they wanted to come across as being trustworthy and knowledgeable. Wordscores illustrated that prior to 2016, speeches were more alike. At the onset of US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he was pulling out of the Paris Agreement, most countries turned away from the US’ positioning. While a narrative of marketization was prevalent, it was the nationalist discourse used by the president that deterred countries. Lastly a regression model was run which showed that GDP, population, and region played an important part in how a country positioned itself on the world stage.
Sustaining the Unsustainable? Political Accountability and Development in sub-Saharan Africa’s Resource Economies
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-07) Ndlovu, Xichavo Alecia; Alence, Rod
Sub-Saharan Africa’s development challenge is to ‘sustain the unsustainable’–using non-renewable resources to initiate long-term development processes that outlive the short-term proceeds of resource extraction. Literature has highlighted how differences in political institutions help determine whether natural resources help or hinder development. However, there is disagreement on which political institutions account for the variations in development outcomes. This study clarifies whether political regimes, electoral competitiveness, and party institutionalisation matter for inclusive and sustainable development using a sample of all sub-Saharan African countries for which data is available from 1990 to 2018. Specifically, do democracies perform better or worse on average than non-democracies? Do electorally competitive democracies perform better or worse than dominant-party (but still multiparty) democracies? Do more institutionalised party systems perform better or worse than less institutionalised party systems? In general, how, if at all, do different political accountability mechanisms affect inclusive and sustainable development? The study uses ‘nested’ analysis, which combines cross-national statistical analysis and case studies of four resource-rich democracies in Africa: Ghana, Zambia, Namibia, and Mozambique. The cross-national analysis shows that party institutionalisation is the only political predictor for social inclusiveness, and all political variables do not improve or worsen economic sustainability. On the other hand, resource rents are negatively associated with social inclusiveness but do not predict economic sustainability. Meanwhile, the non-rent sectors contribute positively to both dimensions of development, highlighting the potential significance of income levels in explaining the cross-national development patterns in Africa. Evidence in the case studies shows that electorally competitive democracies outperform dominant party democracies on social inclusiveness. The risk of being removed from office incentivises incumbents to provide public goods and increase social welfare. However, the impact of political accountability mechanisms on economic sustainability is ambiguous and may depend on sectoral institutions, policies and actors. The study contributes to (and bridges) two groups of literature, one investigating the economic consequences of politics and institutions and another accounting for the resource curse. It also considers both the inclusivity and sustainability aspects of development and highlights contextual factors from case studies, often overlooked in cross-national analyses.
The Role of International Commitments in Combating the Illicit Distribution of Cocaine
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Bacta, Raquel; Alence, Rod
Theoretical studies claim that states’ adherence to international drug control treaties may impact the enforcement of cocaine seizure regulations. However, this study found no significant relationship between commitment to United Nations Conventions and cocaine seizures. The study employed two multi-level regression models to investigate the poten- tial correlation between state adherence to drug control conventions and cocaine seizures between 1996 and 2019. The results suggest that other factors, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade openness, military expenditure, and governance indicators, may play a more important role in explaining the variation in cocaine seizures. Furthermore, the findings imply that practical outcomes may not meet expectations despite efforts to ad- here to international agreements on drug control. Other factors such as national interests, domestic politics, and resource allocation might play a more crucial role in determining the effectiveness of drug control measures. Therefore, comprehensive strategies beyond gov- ernance indicators alone are necessary to address drug trafficking, requiring multifaceted approaches considering socio-economic dynamics, law enforcement capabilities, and inter- national cooperation.
The Role of Natural Disasters in Shaping Individual Perceptions of Climate Change in Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-11-13) Van Niekerk, Courtney; Alence, Rod
This paper explores the relationship between individual perceptions of climate change and natural disasters in African states. This paper uses both qualitative and quantitative research methodology to explore 33 African states by observing the climate change perceptions as well as climate risk experienced by individuals through natural disasters. By using subnational Afrobarometer survey data and corresponding subnational natural disaster data, this paper finds individuals who have experienced natural disasters are less likely to express concerns for climate change.