Dr Kenneth Creamer - Working Papers
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Item A cross-country analysis investigating the impact of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis on the conduct of monetary policy(2021) Creamer, Kenneth and Lamperelli, DanielaTaylor Rule analysis is utilised to enable an analysis of how the 2008 Financial Crisis impacted on the conduct of monetary policy across various countries. Structural Break Analysis and Markov Switching (MS) Regressions are used in order to identify breaks and changes in the conduct of monetary policy as result of the Crisis. The study finds evidence of Crisis-related changes in monetary policy conduct in South Africa, as well as in the US, the UK, the Euro Area (the ECB), Colombia, Peru and South Korea. On the other hand, the results for Brazil, Mexico and Israel do not show conclusive differences in monetary policy conduct in the pre-Crisis and post-Crisis periods. Along with South Africa, there are only two other countries, namely Brazil and Mexico, whose smoothing parameters are larger in the post-Crisis period. Four out of the ten countries place a lower weight on inflation post-Crisis. Six central banks reduce their weighting on the output gap after the Crisis.Item BRICS Cooperation and Possible Futures for the Global Economy(University of the Witwatersrand, 2023) Creamer, Kenneth, DrKey Note Speech at Launch of Joint Research on Confidence Index of Chinese Enterprises’ Investment in South Africa, Wits University, Johannesburg, 19 May 2023, by Dr Kenneth Creamer, School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand.Item Assessing South Africa’s Loan Guarantee Scheme to support firms during the Covid-19 Pandemic(University of the Witwatersrand, 2023) Creamer, Kenneth, Dr; Mahafu, VuyisiweThis article presents a timeline and data on South Africa’s Loan Guarantee Scheme (LGS) established in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. It defines the LGS take-up rate as a key measure of the effectiveness of the policy’s design and implementation. It references relevant theoretical literature, on co-ordination theory, incentive structures, information asymmetries and market failures, to provide explanations for the low take-up rate of South Africa’s LGS. It presents comparative data on the take up rates and design features of LGS-type interventions in a number of other countries. Finally, the article draws lessons from South Africa’s LGS experience which would be relevant for planners and policy makers implementing similar such policies in future.