Browsing by Author "Dickman Gareta"

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    Cohort Profile: South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN)
    (2021-12-30) Mark A Collinson; Taurayi Mudzana; Tinofa Mutevedzi; Kathleen Kahn; Eric Maimela; F Xavier Go´ mez-Olive´; Thobeka Mngomezulu; Dickman Gareta; Chodziwadziwa W Kabudula; Rathani Nemuramba; Joseph Tlouyamma; Stephen Tollman; Kobus Herbst
    South Africa is striving to emerge from a legacy of gross social injustice and consequent health and socioeconomic inequality, to becoming a country where all residents have opportunities to build productive lives. However, recent declines in economic performance and unemployment, exacerbated by weaknesses in national and provincial level governance, coupled with colliding epidemics of HIV/ AIDS and non-communicable diseases, have left the country’s leadership with serious, seemingly intractable challenges. Moreover as with most countries, the effects of stringent sociobehavioural responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with serious economic consequences, serve to amplify such challenges.
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    Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000–2015
    (2023-03-15) Brian Houle; Chodziwadziwa Kabudula; Dickman Gareta; Kobus Herbst; Samuel J Clark
    Objectives The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIVendemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000–2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105). Design We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children’s probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability. Setting Rural South Africa. Participants Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105). Results 3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95%CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95%CI (0.664 to 0.853)). Conclusions Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.
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    Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
    (2021-07-13) Adam Akullian; Alain Vandormael; Joel C Miller; Anna Bershteyn; Edward Wenger; Diego Cuadros; Dickman Gareta; Till Bärnighausen; Kobus Herbst; Frank Tanser
    Recent declines in adult HIV-1 incidence have followed the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy and primary HIV prevention across high-burden communities of sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modeling suggests that HIV risk will decline disproportionately in younger adult age-groups as interventions scale, concentrating new HIV infections in those >age 25 over time. Yet, no empirical data exist to support these projections. We conducted a population-based cohort study over a 16-y period (2004 to 2019), spanning the early scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision, to estimate changes in the age distribution of HIV incidence in a hyperepidemic region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV incidence has recently declined. Median age of HIV seroconversion increased by 5.5 y in men and 3.0 y in women, and the age of peak HIV incidence increased by 5.0 y in men and 2.0 y in women. Incidence declined disproportionately among young men (64% in men 15 to 19, 68% in men 20 to 24, and 46% in men 25 to 29) and young women (44% in women 15 to 19, 24% in women 20 to 24) comparing periods pre- versus post-universal test and treat. Incidence was stable (<20% change) in women aged 30 to 39 and men aged 30 to 34. Age shifts in incidence occurred after 2012 and were observed earlier in men than in women. These results provide direct epidemiological evidence of the changing demographics of HIV risk in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of large-scale treatment and prevention. More attention is needed to address lagging incidence decline among older individuals.