Electronic Theses and Dissertations (Masters)

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Browsing Electronic Theses and Dissertations (Masters) by Author "Glennon, K.L."

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    Modelling current and future distributions of Warburgia species at continental (Africa) and local (South Africa) scales Samista Kim
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Rooplal, Samista Kim; Thompson, D.I.; Glennon, K.L.; Witkowski, E.T.F.
    Warburgia is a genus of trees and shrubs that is greatly valued in Africa for its use in traditional medicine. The genus contains four species, one of which has two subspecies: Warburgia elongata, W. salutaris, W. stuhlmannii, W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and Wugandensis subsp. ugandensis. Individuals are harvested primarily for their bark, which contains pharmacological compounds that are used to treat various ailments. Due to the high demand, species within the genus are overharvested throughout their range and have consequently become threatened by extinction. Warburgia salutaris, the pepper-bark tree, is the only species of the genus that naturally occurs in South Africa. Like its congeners, Wasalutaris is heavily exploited for its bark and has been listed as IUCN Endangered in South Africa. This dissertation, therefore, assesses the distributions of Warburgia species in eastern and southern Africa to identify new, potentially suitable areas to increase population numbers to aid in the conservation of the genus. The aim of the first part of the study was to assess the eastern and southern African distributions of Warburgia species. Species distribution models (SDMs) were created for the four Warburgia species and two subspecies, and the geographic distributions and key environmental predictors were identified for each taxon. Environmental niche analyses were also performed to understand whether the two subspecies of W. ugandensis should be considered as a single species in accordance with the ecological species concept. The second part of the study aimed to assess how the current South African distribution of W. salutaris will be affected by future climate change. An SDM was produced to assess the current distribution of W. salutaris in South Africa and identify its key predictor climate variables. The SDM was then extrapolated into the future (2070) using two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which are greenhouse gas emission scenarios that predict future climates under a probable and extreme scenario, respectively. Ecological niche analyses were also used to assess the degree to which W. salutaris’ climatic niche will change in response to the two climate change scenarios. Results showed that the distributions of Warburgia species are restricted and primarily influenced by climatic variables that likely impact their seeds’ and seedlings’ sensitivity to water stress and desiccation. Ecological niche modelling results show that the climatic niches of W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and W. ugandensis subsp. ugandensis are identical and should therefore be considered as a single species according to the ecological species concept. The South African distribution of W. salutaris is fragmented and restricted. The species’ current and future distribution is influenced by its sensitivity to frost and the fact that it produces seeds that are susceptible to drying out. SDMs predicted that the distribution of W. salutaris will shrink in eastern Limpopo and in parts of Mpumalanga, but increase in eastern KwaZulu-Natal by 2070 under both climate change scenarios. Overall, this species was predicted to contract from the Indian Ocean coastal belt and grassland biomes and expand into the savanna biome. This study has expanded our knowledge of the distributions and environmental drivers of Warburgia species. It was found that in general, Warburgia species have restricted ranges that are likely governed by their sensitivity to desiccation at the seed and seedling stages. Climate change is anticipated to negatively impact the populations of many plant species, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the environmental niche of W. salutaris will remain stable, its geographical distribution was predicted to expand further in the savanna biome along the eastern coast of South Africa in response to climate change. Results from this study support pursuing different conservation techniques, including propagating Warburgia populations around the Great Lakes of Africa and Mt. Kenya and in western Limpopo and eastern KwaZulu-Natal for W. salutaris only. This study therefore emphasizes the importance of using SDMs as a baseline to inform effective conservation efforts for important medicinal plant species