The impact of inflation on house prices in South Africa: effects of COVID-19

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dc.article.end-page1295
dc.article.start-page11281
dc.contributor.authorSimbanegavi, Prisca
dc.contributor.authorWeaich, Malcom
dc.contributor.authorMpofu, Bekithemba
dc.contributor.authorMoobela, Cletus
dc.contributor.editorLaryea, Samuel
dc.contributor.editorLi, Baizhan
dc.contributor.editorEssah, Emmanuel Adu
dc.contributor.editorMensah, Sarfo
dc.contributor.editorLiu, Hong
dc.contributor.editorYao, Runming
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-06T09:43:27Z
dc.date.available2024-10-06T09:43:27Z
dc.date.issued2024-07
dc.descriptionThis paper was presented at the Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE 2024 Conference, 30th – 31st July 2024, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the impact of inflation on house prices in South Africa, with a particular focus on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research aims to elucidate the nature of the relationship between inflation and housing, and to determine how the pandemic has influenced this dynamic. Utilising monthly data from January 2010 to April 2022, the study employs Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests to assess long-term and causal relationships, respectively. The findings confirm a positive long-term relationship between house prices and inflation, indicating that housing serves as an effective hedge against inflation. However, the results also reveal structural breaks in this relationship, with significant changes observed during the COVID-19 period. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) highlights short-run adjustments and the speed of return to equilibrium. This study provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers, demonstrating the resilience of housing investments during economic disruptions and underscoring the importance of considering regional and temporal factors in real estate investment strategies.
dc.description.submitterMM2024
dc.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.identifier0000-0001-7238-3731
dc.identifier.citationMpofu, et al. (2024). The impact of inflation on house prices in South Africa: effects of COVID-19 In: Laryea, S. et al. (Eds) Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE Conference, 30 to 31 July 2024, Johannesburg, South Africa 1281-1295.
dc.identifier.isbn978-0-7961-6032-4
dc.identifier.issn978-0-7961-6032-4 (e-book)
dc.identifier.orcid0009-0000-0015-7567
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10539/41375
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
dc.publisherWABER SuDBE Conference 2024
dc.rights©2024 University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
dc.rights© Copyright The copyright for papers in this publication belongs to the authors of the papers.
dc.rights.holderUniversity of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
dc.schoolSchool of Construction Economics and Management
dc.subjectCovid-19
dc.subjectGranger causality test
dc.subjectHouse prices
dc.subjectInflation
dc.subjectJohansen cointegration
dc.subjectSouth Africa
dc.subject.otherSDG-8: Decent work and economic growth
dc.titleThe impact of inflation on house prices in South Africa: effects of COVID-19
dc.typeConference Proceedings
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