Capital market reaction to changes in the Minister of Finance in South Africa
Date
2020
Authors
Tshikovhela, Azwianzi
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Abstract
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been a key topic of Finance in developing and developed countries. This study will focus on the application of the EMH on a particular political event in South Africa as developing country. The study investigates the reaction of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) equity market returns and JSE government bonds’ yield returns due to changes in the National Minister of Finance in South Africa. Several theories were applied to provide perspective on the issue of information flow and market returns volatility. The study adopted the event study methodology to analyse the effect on changes in the Minister of Finance on the JSE capital market and abnormal returns were calculated using the market model approach, with an event window period of 21 trading days and an estimation period of 252 trading days. The study was focused on a period of 10 years, from 2009 until 2018, which is a period after the apartheid era. The research analysed a sample of the Top 100 JSE listed firms in 2018 and all the government bonds listed on the JSE that were trading during the period of this study. The overall results show that JSE equity market returns and JSE government bonds’ yield returns react insignificantly negatively or positively depending on the timing and circumstances surrounding the change in the National Minister of Finance. These findings have important implications for the optimal strategies of risk-averse capital market investors
Description
A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce, University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Accountancy, 2020
Keywords
UCTD, National Minister of Finance, JSE, Event study, Abnormal return, Capital market