The synergetic effect of drought and land use changes on Ethiopian Rift Valley Northwestern Escarpment livelihood systems

Abstract

Climate change has significantly impacted smallholder farmers in developing countries, where most livelihoods rely on rain-fed agricultural systems. The Northwestern Escarpment of the Ethiopian Rift Valley (NEERV) is among Ethiopia’s most drought-vulnerable areas and is highly affected by land use and land cover change (LULCC). This study aimed to analyze the synergistic impacts of drought and LULCC in the three major livelihood zones (LZs) of NEERV between 1983 and 2019. The study used socioeconomic, climatic, and earth observation datasets. Utilizing a mix of socioeconomic, climatic, and earth observation datasets, this paper investigated the combined effects of these factors on three major livelihood zones: Alagie-Ofla (ALOFLZ), Tsirare catchment (TCLZ), and Raya Valley (RVLZ). The analysis revealed significant rainfall variability, with annual fluctuations between 31 and 50% and seasonal variations ranging from 39 to 99%. This variability has contributed to frequent drought occurrences, with intervals of approximately 2.13 years in ALOFLZ, 2.2 years in TCLZ, and 2.13 years in RVLZ. There has been a notable increase in cultivated and built-up areas across all zones. The study found that drought and LULCC have severely impacted agricultural productivity and local ecosystems, with the most pronounced effects observed in RVLZ, TCLZ, and ALOFLZ. The findings highlight a critical need for integrated approaches to manage and monitor the synergistic impacts of drought and LULCC. The study underscores the importance of enhancing drought and LULCC monitoring systems to improve resilience and adaptability in vulnerable regions. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of how these intertwined factors exacerbate environmental and socioeconomic challenges, offering valuable insights into policy and management strategies for mitigating their effects. Recommendations include enhancing the current drought and LULCC monitoring systems to improve predictions and mitigation efforts, thus bolstering resilience and adaptability among affected communities.