Identifying the effects of the energy transition on the South African coal mining sector

Abstract

South Africa’s coal mining sector is undergoing significant disruption due to the global energy transition towards cleaner and renewable energy sources. As a country historically dependent on coal for both domestic energy production and export revenue, the shift presents complex economic, social, and environmental challenges. This research analysed the effects of this transition through a review of policy documents, economic data, and literature to provide a clear understanding of the sector’s trajectory. Economically, the declining global demand for coal has placed pressure on export volumes, investment, and local employment. Forecasts suggest that South Africa will lose between 25 000 and 35 000 coal mining jobs by 2035, with provinces like Mpumalanga expected to experience the most severe impact. These figures highlight the urgent need for strategic economic diversification and investment in alternative industries to reduce regional dependency on coal. Socially, coal dependent communities are at risk of economic marginalisation due to job losses and reduced municipal revenues. The study identifies the importance of proactive labour market interventions such as retraining, skills development, and infrastructure investment to support a just transition. Without these, the energy transition can worsen unemployment and deepen social inequality. Environmental considerations were also analysed, emphasising the imperative for South Africa to align its energy policies with global environmental social and governance goals. The study not only scrutinised the environmental impacts of coal mining but also advocates for a sustainable transition strategy that harmonises economic interests with ecological responsibility. This appeal for alignment acknowledges the link between economic growth and environmental responsibility, encouraging South Africa to take an active part in the worldwide fight against climate change. The research calls for an active involvement of government, industry stakeholders, and local communities to navigate this transformative period, to have a fair and sustainable transition for all stakeholders involved. This will balance economic objectives with social and environmental responsibility, to have a resilient and sustainable future.