Oil Price Shocks and Financial Stress in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Abstract

This study examines the nexus between financial stability and oil shocks within South Africa, a net-oil importer, and Nigeria, a net-oil exporter. A signal theory approach utilising pAUROC analysis is used to capture relevant indicators. Furthermore, sub-market indices are weighted using a diagonal BEKK-GARCH model, allowing for time-varying cross-correlations to determine sub-market weights, allowing the constructed financial stress index (FSI) for each economy to focus on systemic events of financial stress. The FSI for each economy is then incorporated into a SVAR model which disaggregates oil demand shocks into three components (economic activity, oil consumption demand, and oil inventory demand) following the framework of Baumeister and Hamilton (2019) to capture the effects of oil market shocks on financial stability. This paper finds that positive shocks to oil supply, economic activity, and oil inventory demand tend to reduce financial stress in South Africa. Interestingly, demand driven increases in the real price of oil reduces systemic stress, even though the economy is a net-oil importer. Oil supply shocks and economic activity shocks tend to have no significant effect on Nigerian financial stress while demand driven increases to real oil prices tend to decrease financial stress. Interestingly, shock increases in demand for oil inventories tends to raise financial stress.