Evaluation of Electrical Baseline Load Profile Models for Estimating Residential Demand Response Load Residential Demand Response Load
Date
2012-09-10
Authors
John, Dileep
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Abstract
In light of the electricity supply constraint that South Africa is facing, electricity
distribution utilities are looking towards residential demand response (DR) as a
demand side management solution. The estimation of residential demand
response load impacts requires the use of standardized and consistent methods
to meet both demand response programme administrator and participant
objectives. For load impacts assessment, an essential part of the analysis is the
estimation of the baseline load profile. In this research, an evaluation of a select
set of baseline load profile models is performed using data obtained from a
residential demand response Pilot in Gauteng. The evaluation is performed by
comparing the accuracy and precision of models in estimating baseline loads
for a large number of residential customers for a select set of proxy event days.
Measures of the accuracy and precision of the different models, the importance
of load variability and weather effects, and the effect of applying adjustment
factors are presented. Our results suggest that (1) both average based and
temperature based regression models evaluated tend to perform equally well
from an accuracy and precision point of view, with the simple average based
models performing slightly better than the temperature based models for
residential customers,(2) the accuracy of all models deteriorate with increasing
load variability and hence the characterization of residential loads by variability
is a useful indicator in reconciling demand response evaluation expectations
and outcomes, (3) residential customers are weakly temperature sensitive and
hence temperature based regression models do not outperform simple average
based models, and (4) owing to the high load variability for residential
customers, the inclusion of an adjustment factor worsens the performance of
the models and hence should be avoided
Description
MBA thesis (WBS)
Keywords
Electricity supply, Residential demand response models