An evaluation of the quantitative risk assessment simulation undertaken during the planning stage of mega-projects
Date
2024-07
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
WABER SuDBE Conference 2024
WABER SuDBE Conference 2024
Abstract
This research examines how the absence of robust risk identification processes during the planning stage can significantly impact the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) outcomes and increase the likelihood of cost overruns in mega-projects in South Africa. By analysing specific mega-projects and their risk identification procedures, this study highlights the importance of a high-quality assessment of the QRA input stage in the context of these mega-projects. Through surveys and interviews with project managers and stakeholders, the study has provided deeper insights into the consequences of inadequate planning, such as project cost overruns and decreased project profitability. The research indicated that a robust risk identification process during the planning stage is pivotal in mitigating cost overruns in mega-projects in South Africa. Projects that prioritise structured methodologies involving all the relevant stakeholders and conduct comprehensive risk identification practices are better equipped to control project costs. The unanimous agreement on the significance of risk identification in cost overrun prevention emphasises its paramount importance. The findings will contribute to the risk management body of knowledge, offering valuable recommendations for improved risk identification and mitigation strategies to enhance project outcomes and positively impact project owners. Lastly, the paper sheds light on the nuanced landscape of risk identification, its impact on cost overruns, and the strategies for its improvement.
Description
This paper was presented at the Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE 2024 Conference, 30th – 31st July 2024, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Keywords
Construction risk, Mega-projects, Planning stage, Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), Risk identification
Citation
Zwane, et al. (2024). An evaluation of the quantitative risk assessment simulation undertaken during the planning stage of mega-projects In: Laryea, S. et al. (Eds) Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE Conference, 30 to 31 July 2024, Johannesburg, South Africa 967-977