MODELLING CONSUMER PROMOTIONAL
Date
2011-06-08
Authors
Pritchard, John Fabian
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Abstract
This research is concerned with developing a technique for modelling the
promotional response of fast moving consumer goods in an environment that is
evolving through new product introductions and changing promotional frequency
patterns. A technique is developed that achieves this objective and also achieves the
objective of differentiating between own brand and category level cross period
effects, as well as own brand and category level expansion effects. This is the first
public domain technique that the author is aware of that achieves these objectives.
Through using a theoretically derived data set and various simulations, the research
also demonstrates that significant bias is introduced into the coefficient estimates of
extant techniques that do not allow for the introduction of new products and changing
promotional patterns when these effects do in fact exist. Through the use of Monte
Carlo simulation methods, the reliability of the proposed solution algorithm is
investigated in the presence of un-modelled disturbances. For the disturbance
domain that was chosen for the research, it is shown that the estimation technique is
quite sensitive to the disturbances, particularly when estimating cross period and
category expansion effects. Directions for further research are included
Description
MBA - WBS
Keywords
Consumer behaviour