4. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - Faculties submissions

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    The impact of foreign ownership on emerging markets' banking system: a case of BRICS
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Magagula, Sibusiso Vusi; MOKOALELI-MOKOTELI, Thabang
    The current research examines foreign bank ownership’s impact on the financial soundness and benefits observable within-host banking markets and banks’ risk-taking behaviour in the BRICS. Also, this research examines the effects of foreign ownership on both fiscal and monetary policies’ transmission via the bank lending channel. Thus, the rationale to focus on the impact of foreign ownership on BRICS member countries’ banking markets is because post-global financial crisis, these economies stimulated their economy via banking. Moreover, the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 did not lead to deglobalisation in their banking markets because, generally, the BRICS bloc is found to have recovered quickly from the situation without their banks changing their privatisation strategy concerning foreign ownership. The CAMELS rating analysis, two- stage least square and two-way random effect panel models are the primary study tools in the current research, and the biasness testing was incorporated as a robustness check. The results show that the foreign-owned banks contribute procyclically to the bloc's financial soundness, indicating that their presence introduces some asymmetries into their banking systems. Furthermore, foreign banks in BRICS lead to benefits that outweigh risks. However, some risk elements need to be minimised to insulate the bloc from a future globally induced crisis. These risks include systemic risk of foreign-owned banks, lowering tier II capital as required by Basel III for all banks, the ineffectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in regulating lending risk, and excessive leveraging of domestic banks. Despite the risks associated with foreign banks' presence in BRICS, foreign bank ownership increases the performance and efficiency of all banks, with domestic banks becoming risk-averse, which may explain the quick recovery of the BRICS banking sector post-2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications from the results highlight the need for local policymakers to strategies on ways to encourage banks to lend in domestic currency to regain control over lending risks post-acquisition of their host banks by global investors. Also, host regulators need to closely monitor the extent of systemic risk from foreign-owned banks to limit the chance of a banking crisis in the future.
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    The impact of foreign ownership on emerging markets' banking system: a case of BRICS
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Magagula, Sibusiso Vusi; MOKOALELI-MOKOTEL, Thabang
    The current research examines foreign bank ownership’s impact on the financial soundness and benefits observable within-host banking markets and banks’ risk-taking behaviour in the BRICS. Also, this research examines the effects of foreign ownership on both fiscal and monetary policies’ transmission via the bank lending channel. Thus, the rationale to focus on the impact of foreign ownership on BRICS member countries’ banking markets is because post-global financial crisis, these economies stimulated their economy via banking. Moreover, the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 did not lead to deglobalisation in their banking markets because, generally, the BRICS bloc is found to have recovered quickly from the situation without their banks changing their privatisation strategy concerning foreign ownership. The CAMELS rating analysis, two- stage least square and two-way random effect panel models are the primary study tools in the current research, and the biasness testing was incorporated as a robustness check. The results show that the foreign-owned banks contribute procyclically to the bloc's financial soundness, indicating that their presence introduces some asymmetries into their banking systems. Furthermore, foreign banks in BRICS lead to benefits that outweigh risks. However, some risk elements need to be minimised to insulate the bloc from a future globally induced crisis. These risks include systemic risk of foreign-owned banks, lowering tier II capital as required by Basel III for all banks, the ineffectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in regulating lending risk, and excessive leveraging of domestic banks. Despite the risks associated with foreign banks' presence in BRICS, foreign bank ownership increases the performance and efficiency of all banks, with domestic banks becoming risk-averse, which may explain the quick recovery of the BRICS banking sector post-2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications from the results highlight the need for local policymakers to strategies on ways to encourage banks to lend in domestic currency to regain control over lending risks post-acquisition of their host banks by global investors. Also, host regulators need to closely monitor the extent of systemic risk from foreign-owned banks to limit the chance of a banking crisis in the future
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    Empirical essays on exchange rate dynamics in large emerging market economies
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Iwegbunam, Ifeoma Anthonia; Odei-Mensah, Jones
    This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows using disaggregated industrial trade data, the effects of nominal exchange rate changes on the validity of real interest rate parity conditions, and the effects of monetary policy responses on real effective exchange rate volatility in large emerging market economies (LEMEs) were also examined. As part of countries with convertible currencies, the exchange rate plays a vital role in LEMEs’ economic activities, including engagement in the global markets. The countries’ participation in international trade and financial markets has improved since the liberalisation of global markets at the end of the Bretton Woods era. However, just as they have enjoyed and recorded tremendous successes through economic openness, lack of suitable monetary policy makes LEMEs susceptible to external global contagion shocks ranging from financial crises to interest rate hikes or monetary policy changes in foreign countries. As commodity-dependent countries with increased exchange rate volatility, LEMEs have not benefited profitably from participating in international trade compared to their comparative advantages, such as abundant natural resources, human capacity, skills and production capacity. Moreover, the economies also suffer from internal policy instabilities and other systemic challenges that weaken the institutions and worsen the external challenges faced by LEMEs. All these problems are believed to result from increased exchange rate volatility prevalent in LEMEs. As such, problems related to exchange rate volatility and its impacts on international trade flows in LEMEs have lingered on for years as economic and financial instabilities widened. These challenges can be viewed from increased levels of current account deficits, the rising balance of payment disequilibrium, market imperfections such as asymmetric information, uncertainties leading to increased risk aversion, and systemic imbalances faced by LEMEs. This implies that growth recorded from economic openness have not shielded LEMEs from exchange rate volatility, monetary policy instabilities and economic sustainability challenges. Therefore, whether LEMEs should adopt unconventional monetary policies that suit the characteristics of the economies or the fixed exchange rate regime to mitigate exchange rate volatility and the associated negative effects remains conflicted. The way forward can only be determined by examining the impacts of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows in LEMEs. These unanswered questions have also left the economies hanging as the ripple effects result in real interest rate parity deviations. This reflects the assumption that when financial flows are restricted in economies, the chances of deviation in real interest rate parity increase. Additionally, recorded financial crises since financial market liberalisation also affect exchange rates in countries with convertible currencies. LEMEs are undoubtedly vulnerable to external contagion effects due to the poor-quality financial systems in the economies. Furthermore, research has shown that countries with underdeveloped financial systems remain trapped in vicious cycles affecting their global market performance. However, achieving real interest rate parity conditions is essential and requires standards for adequate capital mobility and efficient market integration. Since achieving real interest rate parity conditions seems implausible due to challenges faced by LEMEs, it would be insightful to explore the possibility of such parity conditions holding amid monetary policy reforms that result in nominal exchange rate regime changes in LEMEs. The problems related to the impacts of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows and achieving real interest rate parity conditions in LEMEs beg for an answer on how monetary policy should be strengthened to suit LEMEs’ financial stability agenda. Over the years, the attempt to restructure LEMEs’ financial systems through monetary policy reform has constituted a significant discussion. Considering that LEMEs suffer institutional setbacks caused by increasing price variability, a poor policy framework, underdeveloped financial systems, and institutional imbalances through exchange rate volatility. Adjusting how monetary policy responds to real effective exchange rate volatility vis-a-vis the inflation targeting (IT) framework guided by the Taylor policy rule does not seem to be the answer. Arguments have been presented regarding the practicability of the Taylor rule in LEMEs, considering the developmental level of policies in these economies. Moreover, there are concerns that the Taylor rule is limited, lacks some macroeconomic instruments that cater to the disadvantages associated with LEMEs, and might not adequately capture the relevant factors needed to restructure monetary policy
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    Media coverage of South Africa reserve bank monetary policy commitee work: a case study of CNBC Africa 2014-2017
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2019) Segawa, Arnold
    This thesis examines how the media, particularly CNBC Africa covers the work of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The thesis takes a two-pronged approach to explore this with one arm inspecting the sociological and psychological aspects of engaging guests in the CNBC Africa Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) panel discussions and the other, looking at what CNBC Africa holds salient when covering the MPC panel discussions. By examining MPC panel discussion data from 2014 to 2017, the thesis contrasts both quantitative and qualitative methods to arrive at a quantitative dataset that shows what CNBC Africa holds salient during their coverage posing questions on whether this aligns with the SARB mandate. On the other hand, the thesis explores the sociological and psychological aspects of news and debate production, particularly how MPC panelists for the special broadcast are selected. The thesis aims to contribute to the scarce literature on monetary policy communication and media engagement as the adoption of inflation targeting has fast-fostered transparency in central banks in the past three decades. The thesis applies theories of Agenda Setting by McCombs and Shaw (1972) to examine the salient aspects of the CNBC Africa MPC panel discussion. In addition, it explores Tversky and Kahneman’s (1992) revolutionary work on dual process theory to inspect the psychological aspects of inviting panelists. The thesis finds that during the CNBC Africa MPC discussion, ‘interest rates’ as a key word in context dominates the conversation over and above any other topic and a closer examination of the data reveals a strong frequency of interest rates in a ‘global context’ further asserting South Africa’s exposure to global headwinds and external shocks. Furthermore, this shows a deviation between SARB’s mandate and CNBC Africa’s MPC panel discussions in regards to salience. This is because SARB pushes to achieve and maintain price stability in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth in South Africa through achieving price stability by setting an inflation target that serves as a yardstick against which price stability is measured. With this mandate, price stability and, therefore, inflation are the core focus of the SARB with interest rates being a mere tool to achieve price stability. The deviation of CNBC Africa’s and SARB’s frames is further illustrated in the data as ‘interest rates’ dominate the conversation during the CNBC Africa MPC panel discussion at the expense of ‘inflation.’ The thesis submits that in order to merge the SARB’s and CNBC Africa’s frames, the latter need cover the MPC announcement in a three-pronged approach that encloses SARB’s economic outlook with emphasis on the forward-looking stance, path of future policy rates and cover policy decisions in their entirety