4. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - Faculties submissions

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    Impact of financial intermediaries on economic growth
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2021) Ayodele, Ademola Emmanual
    This study investigates the impact of financial intermediaries on economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2017. The study uses Gross Domestic Product as the dependent variable and also used Money Supply (MS), Credit to Private Sector, Lending Rate (LR) and Total Credit (TC) as independent variables coupled with the use of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model as method of analysis. The result revealed that only money supply is statistically significant with economic growth in both the short run and long run. However, Credit to Private Sector, Lending Rate and Total Credit assert a negative effect on economic growth while money supply has positive effect on economic growth. Also, the granger causality test shows a unidirectional causality from GDP to both CPS and TC also from MS to GDP. Meanwhile, the direction of causality is inconclusive between LR and GDP. Hence, through the preponderance of empirical proofs from various places around the world and the findings of this study, it can be inferred that financial intermediaries have a significant impact on economic growth. The study therefore, recommends that the financial intermediaries should properly monitor credit provide to sectors in the economy in other to ensure that these sectors profitably use such credit to boost the economy.
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    Inflation Targeting and Unemployment in the South African Retail Sector
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Mutwanamba, Pfarelo Victor; Mwebi, Jane
    This study investigates the impact of inflation targeting on employment in the South Africanretail sector, addressing concerns from trade unions and stakeholders regarding the nation'smonetary policy framework. Spanning from 2000 to 2022, coinciding with the adoption ofinflation targeting by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in year 2000, the researchutilises econometric methods and secondary data to fill gaps in the literature, notably the lackof dedicated research on the retail sector and the mechanisms through which inflationtargeting influences retail sector employment. Amidst persistent developmental challenges,including a 32.7% unemployment rate in Q4 2022, heightened poverty and inequality (i.e.,South Africa has the highest Gini Coeffient1 in the world), and sluggish economic growth, thestudy uncovers nuanced insights. While inflation targeting measures contribute to pricestability, they do not directly address the underlying structural issues contributing to elevatedunemployment rates. This aligns with the formulated hypotheses that (H1) the implementationof SARB's inflation targeting framework has a significant impact on employment in SouthAfrica's retail industry, and (H2) the approach adopted by the SARB in implementing itsinflation targeting policy influences the extent of its impact on employment in South Africa'sretail industry – implying that the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected in favour of alternativehypotheses. The study's conclusion, substantiated by Johansen Cointegration, GrangerCausality, and Impulse Functions analyses, affirms the substantial impact of SARB's inflationtargeting framework on retail sector employment. The Johansen Cointegration analysisestablishes a stable, statistically significant long-term relationship between interest rates andretail employment, corroborating the hypotheses. Furthermore, the study highlights thenecessity for targeted policy interventions, such as enhanced skills training programs andsupport for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Additionally, it emphasises theimportance of tailored responses to effectively address unemployment and promotesustainable economic development in South Africa. Notably, the study suggests an expandedrole for SARB beyond its mandate of price stability, endorsing proactive measures to tacklethe structural issues contributing to unemployment in the retail sector