4. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - Faculties submissions

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    Diversification benefits of SA REITs in a mixed asset portfolio: one decade and a pandemic later
    (2023) Mphaho, Masilo; Kodongo, Odongo
    Volatility spillover between financial markets causes inefficiency of diversification. Therefore, other investment alternatives are required to build an optimal portfolio, one of them being Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The low correlation between REITs and stocks implies an advantage of diversification in an investment portfolio containing both assets. An important implication of this finding is that if stocks and REITs are incorporated into an investment portfolio, the investor will have better diversification benefits. This paper looks at the diversification benefits of having REITs in a mixed asset portfolio by conducting an empirical study from when the REIT regime came into effect in South Africa 10 years ago, particularly focusing on the period between 2013 and 2023. The econometric tools used in this regard include cointegration and, time series models (VAR and VECM) for forecasting. The paper also considers how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected this relationship by conducting a mean-variance spanning test to see if the inclusion of REITs in an existing portfolio dominates it. Other measures such as Sharpe ratios and Efficient Frontiers are included for analysing portfolio performance. Therefore, providing a mature analysis of REITs continuing from current literature and assisting Fund Managers in understanding the impact of including the asset class in a portfolio with a long-term investment horizon. This study affirms the low correlation between REITs and other stocks and further shows that they are not affected by shocks in the bond and stock markets respectively while also having the potential to improve the risk-adjusted returns of a Portfolio. Therefore, Fund Managers can consider REITs for their portfolio diversification strategies.
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    Pairs Trading via Unsupervised Learning on the JSE
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Laher, Muhammad; Seetharam, Yudhvir
    Pairs trading, a strategy that capitalises on temporary price discrepancies between two correlated assets, has garnered attention for its potential to generate profits in financial markets. This research explores the viability of employing unsupervised learning techniques for pairs trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Using clustering algorithms to identify pairs and considering both price data and firm characteristics, the study examines the performance of pairs trading portfolios constructed via different clustering methods. Empirical results reveal that while agglomerative clustering shows promise with the highest monthly mean return for long-short portfolios, none of the strategies consistently outperform benchmark indices. Furthermore, considering only momentum features in the clustering process leads to deteriorated portfolio performance, emphasizing the importance of incorporating firm characteristics. Despite the potential benefits offered by unsupervised learning, challenges such as the limited number of listed stocks and algorithm selection hinder the strategy's effectiveness on the JSE. The findings suggest that further research is needed to refine methodologies and address practical implementation challenges for pairs trading strategies in emerging markets like the JSE
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    Market reaction to rights offer: A case of Johannesburg Stock Exchange
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2020) Lebepe, Busisiwe A.; MOKOALELI-MOKOTELI, THABANG
    Firms have at their disposal various sources to meet the capital requirements to fund their growth aspirations to generate sustainable shareholder wealth. Rights issues are key among this compendium of capital sources. This study investigated the short and medium-term market reaction of firms’ rights offer announcement event on the share price of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)-listed firms using an event study methodology to operationalise the research. A univariate t-test analysis determined the significance of the market price reaction post-announcement of a rights offer for JSE-listed shares. The cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) were calculated using the market model formula. The significance testing was conducted on the null hypotheses at a 5% significance level. Empirical evidence frequently indicates a significant price drop post-announcement of a rights offer. Studies indicate a general negative price reaction to announcing the rights issue on the JSE due to a dilution in earnings per share, regulation, and effects of floatation costs. This study’s results provide a contrarian view with empirical evidence indicating a significantly positive price movement of 2.30%, 2.94%, and 2.56%, respectively, from day three to five post-announcement of a rights offer. However, statistically insignificant negative price movement results were observed in the medium-term (30–252 days). The review period is from January 2006 to January 2020, covering periods from different economic cycles and the most recent data on rights offers. This study contributes to the ongoing assessment on price reaction post announcing a rights offer in the South African market
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    A comparative analysis of the impact of Covid-19 and the global financial crisis on capital structure: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Mjeso, Thandiwe; Chipeta, Chimwemwe
    Since Modigliani and Miller (1958) introduced the modern theory of capital structure, various studies have been conducted on capital structure. This study contributes to the existing capital structure literature by investigating how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted the capital structure of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed non-financial firms and comparing this impact to that of the 2008 global financial crisis. Furthermore, this study seeks to determine the relationship between capital structure and fundamental firm factors (business risk, profitability, firm size, growth, and asset tangibility). To conduct this analysis, the financial data of these firms for the 2005 to 2022 period is extracted from Bloomberg and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model is used to conduct the analysis of this study. The results of this study indicate that Covid-19 did not have a statistically significant impact on the capital structure of the JSE listed non-financial firms whereas, the 2008 global financial crisis had a statistically significant impact. Overall, the results of this study are consistent with the empirical evidence reported by previous studies, and they provide evidence in support of both the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory
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    Evaluating the relationship between retail and technology companies’ share prices with earnings and net cash flow in the context of South Africa and America (USA)
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Tiquin, Cal; Brahmbhatt, Y.
    Background: The informational value of accounting information is becoming increasingly important within the context of the modern information age. Research in this regard is lacking within the South African context, and within the technological sector. Purpose: The purpose of this research study is to test if the explanatory power of net earnings and cash flow differed for separate sectors of stock exchanges. Methodology: Four samples, representing the technology and retail sectors of both the JSE and the NYSE were collected and analysed in terms of an Ohlson (1995) model for a five year time period, from 2017 to 2021 (inclusive). Using a linear panel data regression model with secondary data, the explanatory power of both cash flow and earnings were compared between the different sectors. Findings: The results showed that the explanatory power of cash flow was greater than the explanatory power of net earnings on the NYSE for the technology sector, while the opposite was true for a traditional, retail sector. No significant regression results were attained for the JSE. Implications: The findings of this research provide valuable insight into the informational value of accounting information, and how it may differ between sectors. It may also assist regulatory bodies, Stock exchanges and investors in determining if different accounting information should be presented or prioritised for different sector
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    Investigating the relationship between integrated reporting quality and its effect on risk of the top 100 JSE listed companies in South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-12-13) Jhavary, Musnaa; Cerbone, Dannielle
    This thesis investigates the relationship between the quality of an organization’s integrated report, as defined by the EY Integrated Reporting Awards, and the risk of the organisation. To achieve this the relationship between an entity’s financial ratios and the quality of the integrated report it produces are calculated and explored. A quantitative research approach is used and risk is proxied using debt and equity ratios collected from the IRESS database, as well as integrated reports found on the websites of the top 100 JSE-listed companies over five years from 2017 to 2021. A regression is performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The results suggest a significant relationship between the costs of debt and integrated reporting quality, when compared to the cost of equity and the weighted average cost of capital. In addition, other variables hold a stronger relationship with integrated reporting quality, such as the ability of a firm to produce a standalone CSR report, as well as the firm’s equity market-to-book ratio and a firm’s size
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    Herding Behaviour and Equity Market Liquidity in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Rip, Kyle Christopher; Britten, James
    This study tests the relationship between equity market liquidity and herding behaviour in the aggregate market portfolio in a South African context and found evidence of herding behvaiour when conditioned on liquidity. The “aggregate market portfolio” refers to the average consensus of all market constituents- in this case the JSE. The analysis is performed through liquidity quartiles on the whole sample period as well as in specific sub-periods with alternative measures of liquidity. The sample period covers January 2000 to December 2021. The results show that a higher level of equity market liquidity is associated with an increase in the tendency for investors to herd towards the market consensus (reduced return dispersions as a result of clustering around the mean market return). However, this research shows that the relationship is dependent on the time period analysed and that the relationship may no longer hold when the relative level of market liquidity (the distribution of daily market liquidity levels) changes
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    An evaluation of corporate actions as a shareholder wealth creation mechanism for JSE-listed investment holding companies
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Schwenke, Nicholas
    Background: Investment holding companies represent a category of company primarily focused on adding value by increasing the value of the stakes in the businesses they own. In South Africa there is a trend for Investment Holding companies to trade at a price lower than their reported intrinsic net asset value that is widely commented on by management teams and the financial press. It is also accepted that corporate actions are known to have an impact on share price and investor behaviour. Purpose: The purpose of this research is first to quantify the discount to intrinsic net asset value across a sample of holding companies. This research will also determine if corporate actions pursued by holding companies have reduced any discounts which exist and, in the process, created value for shareholders. Finally, an assessment of which corporate actions is most effective in reducing the discount (if any) will be prepared. Method: Discounts are quantified by comparing daily share prices to the reported intrinsic net asset value. The impact of corporate actions is evaluated using an event study methodology using multiple estimation models. Results: The results showed that corporate actions resulted in no significant abnormal returns apart from in a six-month event window after the event announcement date. Statistically significant negative abnormal returns were noted in this event window. This indicates that corporate actions are not an effective way of reducing the discount to intrinsic net asset value. Contribution: This research adds to the existing JSE event study literature by focusing on a specific subset of companies. The research makes a theoretical contribution by suggesting value creation strategies for businesses which may be fundamentally mispriced
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    Investigating the relationship between integrated reporting quality and its effect on risk of the top 100 JSE listed companies in South Africa
    (University of the Witswatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Jhavary, Husnaa; Cerbone, Dannielle
    This thesis investigates the relationship between the quality of an organization’s integrated report, as defined by the EY Integrated Reporting Awards, and the risk of the organisation. To achieve this the relationship between an entity’s financial ratios and the quality of the integrated report it produces are calculated and explored. A quantitative research approach is used and risk is proxied using debt and equity ratios collected from the IRESS database, as well as integrated reports found on the websites of the top 100 JSE-listed companies over five years from 2017 to 2021. A regression is performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The results suggest a significant relationship between the costs of debt and integrated reporting quality, when compared to the cost of equity and the weighted average cost of capital. In addition, other variables hold a stronger relationship with integrated reporting quality, such as the ability of a firm to produce a standalone CSR report, as well as the firm’s equity market-to-book ratio and a firm’s size
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    Is the Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG) score the missing factor in the Fama-French five factor asset pricing model?
    (2022) Nsibande, Luyanda Malusi Qiniso
    Background: Companies are increasingly encouraged to focus on the creation of sustainable value. In South Africa, financial research institutions evaluate and track companies’ performance based on environmental, social and governance-related criteria. These scores are intended to inform decisions by potential equity investors, amongst others. However, commonly-used asset pricing models do not include ESG scores. Purpose: The purpose of this research is to discover whether the inclusion of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) scores in the Fama and French fivefactor model (FF5) will improve the model’s predicting power of expected returns on the Johannesburg stock exchange JSE Methodology: For the largest 40 JSE-listed companies, statistical ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was employed with R statistics to analyse fundamental, share price and ESG score data over the five-year time period from 2015 to 2019. The researcher compared the predictive power of the FF5 model to that of the same model including ESG scores. Findings: The results showed that the predictive power of the FF5 model is only marginally improved when the ESG scores are incorporated. These findings may indicate that equity prices are not significantly influenced by ESG scores. Implications: The findings of this research provide the basis for further endeavours on the share-price implications of ESG performance. It makes a theoretical contribution by suggesting possible enhancements to traditional asset pricing techniques.