4. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - Faculties submissions

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    The holiday climate index: applicability and suitability for the South African context
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Kristensen, Daniella; Fitchett, Jennifer
    Tourism is one of the largest economic sectors and continues to grow at a rapid pace. This sector is under threat by climate change, with Africa deemed to be most vulnerable to these changes. The projected climatic changes and increase in occurrence and intensity of extreme events over South Africa has an impact on overall tourism comfortability. Quantifying the climatic suitability of tourist destinations has been achieved through tourism climate indices. Some of these indices cover all tourism activities and some are specific to a tourism type (e.g., snow tourism). The Holiday Climate Index (HCI) was developed to determine climactic comfortability of beach and urban destinations and to address the limitations of previous indices. This study will provide the first determination of the appropriateness of the HCI for the South African context and calculations of the HCI for destinations across South Africa. The mean annual HCIurban and HCIbeach scores for the longest continuous period of each destination reveal that the majority of destinations demonstrate HCIurban and HCIbeach scores between 70 and 79 and are considered to have ‘very good’ climatic conditions for tourism. An exception is the HCIurban result for Durban which is scored as ‘good’. Generally, the highest HCI scores were calculated for Cape Town on the west coast, while the lowest HCI scores were calculated for Durban on the east coast. It was determined that McBoyle’s (2001) winter season peak distribution is applicable to seven of the 13 HCIurban and three of the five HCIbeach destinations. This indicates that the winter season is most suitable for tourism for most destinations. In comparing the results of destinations where both the HCIurban and HCIbeach are applicable, it was determined that all destinations, with the exception of Durban, have a minimal difference in the average annual HCI scores. Durban recorded a notable difference which demonstrated that the destination would be more suitable for beach tourism. The results of this study can be used to quantify the impacts of climate change on the tourism sector and assist tourism stakeholders in developing the capacity to adapt to the projected changes.
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    Exploring Spatio-Temporal Climate Dynamics over Central Southern Africa: A Cross Border Analysis
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-07) Welff, Megan; Fitchett, Jennifer; Esterhuysen, Amanda
    Understanding the diverse nature of climate dynamics in southern Africa is imperative in the face of climate change. Ground-based meteorological stations provide high-resolution climate data that can be used to investigate and analyse climate in detail. However, southern African countries monitor and manage meteorological stations independently which presents various challenges when attempting cross-border studies. While there are many meteorological-station-based climate studies conducted for South Africa or Botswana, there are few that combine meteorological datasets from both these countries to investigate climate dynamics across political boundaries. In this study, meteorological data from Botswana Meteorological Services and the South African Weather Service spanning 1912-2019 is pre-processed, cleaned and combined to produce a cross-border dataset. A total of 44 stations covers the Gauteng and North West provinces in South Africa and the southern, Kweneng, Kgatleng, South-east and Kgalagadi districts of Botswana. The combined cross-border dataset includes the average monthly summer, winter and annual rainfall (RS, RW and RA respectively) and the average monthly minimum and maximum summer, winter and annual temperatures (TSmin, TSmax, TWmin, TWmax, TAmin and TAmax respectively). From the linear regression analysis, an overall increasing trend for temperature is identified barring two stations (TSmin and TAmin for Mahalapye Met station, and TWmin for Vaalharts). Additionally, for rainfall there is a significant decreasing trend identified. Lastly, the spatial variability of the region is determined using an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation in the GIS Software, ArcMap, to interpolate between stations. From this a west to east reduction in rainfall and a north-western to south-eastern decreasing temperature gradient is identified across the study region.
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    Senior Decision Makers’ Perspectives on South Africa’s Climate Change Response Strategy
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2021) Taylor, Andrew
    This research seeks to analyse the perspectives of senior decision makers of South Africa’s climate change response strategy, using Q Methodology as the principal research methodology. The research reveals 4 statistically significant perspectives and seeks to distil traits which exemplify these perspectives. These perspectives have been located within the current international commitments and domestic climate change response strategy of the Republic of South Africa. This research argues that the interdependence of the actors who are responsible for driving the climate change response strategy require a coordinated and structured approach to achieve meaningful change. This approach must be based on multi-sectoral cooperation, led by a nationally coordinated drive to implement decarbonisation strategies compatible with the undertakings made in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement. These strategies must be underpinned by a coherent response which sufficiently balances the trade-offs implicit in balancing a complex system such as climate change, more specifically, when set against the unique background of South Africa’s demographics, structural and economic inequality and natural environment
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    Evaluating the effectiveness of South Africa’s air quality legislation as a climate change mitigation tool
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Mlapisane, Simelweyinkosi; Lisa, Chamberlain
    The global community is still grappling with the climate change crisis. Due to the intrinsic relationship between climate change and air quality, South Africa is addressing climate change through its air quality laws. This report demonstrates how these laws have been incorporated in a climate change context. It also evaluates whether the air quality laws have been robust enough to combat climate change. The report further argues that in practice, South Africa has fallen short, mainly due to a badly designed legal framework that has many loopholes, which has led to insufficient implementation. It goes on to make five recommendations on strengthening the legal framework to make it more effective. This report recommends that specific climate change legislation should be enacted; that South Africa should revisit and reform its current air quality laws; that the national government should strengthen the local government’s capacity to improve air quality; that there should be more cooperation between government departments; and that priority area management plans should contain penalties
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    Extreme weather events and human health in South Africa: implications for climate services
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Manyuchi, Albert Edgar; Erasmus, Barend; Wright, Caradee; Vogel, Coleen
    Extreme weather events (EWEs), defined as ‘weather events that are rare at a particular place and time of the year’, have increasingly been affecting many countries worldwide (IPCC 2014). The increased occurrence and intensity of EWEs, among other factors, has increased public interest and demand for climate information. More detail is needed on EWEs and how they can be more effectively coupled to climate services in Africa. This study brings a compendium of empirical evidence, conceptual clarity and transdisciplinary approaches to policymakers, researchers and practitioners dealing with these crucial issues. The main aim of this study is to explore the human health effects of EWEs, particularly heat and the delivery of climate services for health in Africa. Through a systematic review, the study examines the potential impacts of heat on human health in Africa. Using a case study approach heathealth effects are evaluated including the status of climate services in the Agincourt subdistrict of South Africa. A novel systems theory-based conceptual framework and an inclusive analytical framework are employed to explore climate services delivery within the context of climate change adaptation. The study produces two main findings. First, EWEs particularly heat, potentially affects human health in Africa by changing mortality and morbidity patterns. In the Agincourt sub-district in particular, heat may be associated with adverse health effects on vulnerable populations, including inter alia the elderly, children and outdoor workers. Despite this, Africa-specific heat-health interventions and policy suggestions are scarce. Second, climate services are generally in embryonic stages of development and climate services for health in Agincourt subdistrict are non-existent. Within the South African context, the main barriers to delivery of climate services for health are paucity of interagency coordination and gaps in meteorological data. One of the key conclusions of the study is that African countries can promote development of climate services to adapt to EWEs such as heat. Heat, and heatwaves, for example, are already affecting populations, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with concomitant adverse effects on health outcomes on vulnerable population groups. The three key recommendations from this study are as follows. First, African policymakers and practitioners must avoid a reductionist approach to analysis of EWEs, especially heat impacts and start viewing these as harmful to human health. Therefore, governments must prioritise interventions, create institutions and formulate policy measures to deal with the health effects of heat within their national adaptations plans. Second, African countries must prioritise policy mixes that promote climate services in general and climate services for health in particular. And finally, further policy-science research that generates empirical evidence for African policymakers and practitioners engaged in international negotiations and programmes for climate change adaptation and climate services should be encouraged.
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    Senior decision makers’ perspectives on South Africa’s climate change response strategy
    (2021) Taylor, Andrew
    This research seeks to analyse the perspectives of senior decision makers of South Africa’s climate change response strategy, using Q Methodology as the principal research methodology. The research reveals 4 statistically significant perspectives and seeks to distil traits which exemplify these perspectives. These perspectives have been located within the current international commitments and domestic climate change response strategy of the Republic of South Africa. This research argues that the interdependence of the actors who are responsible for driving the climate change response strategy require a coordinated and structured approach to achieve meaningful change. This approach must be based on multi-sectoral cooperation, led by a nationally coordinated drive to implement decarbonisation strategies compatible with the undertakings made in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement. These strategies must be underpinned by a coherent response which sufficiently balances the trade-offs implicit in balancing a complex system such as climate change, more specifically, when set against the unique background of South Africa’s demographics, structural and economic inequality and natural environment
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    Perceived barriers to the adoption of low-carbon energy in the South African Energy-Intensive Industry
    (2021) Muditambi, Lydia
    Carbon dioxide is the predominant greenhouse gas associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. Energy-intensive industry is linked to high carbon emissions due to high energy consumption compared to other types of industry, hence the need for low-carbon energy options. With local and international pressure to reduce carbon emissions, this study seeks to explore the available options to facilitate low-carbon energy and to identify the barriers associated withtheir adoption within the South African energy-intensive industry. Most previous studies on this topicwere conducted for industrialized countries, and this study focus on understanding the barriers that affect South Africa and possibly other developing countries. Quantitative approach was employed using online survey and descriptive statistics to gather and analyse information on low-carbon energy options available and employed within the South African energy-intensive industry and to understand the barriers to their adoption. The study found that regulatory, economic, facility structural design, and culture and behavioural barriers exist in the South African energy-intensive industry. The barriers identified provides the basis for planning and resource allocation for the energy-intensive industry