4. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - Faculties submissions
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Item The geopolitics of climate change and violent conflicts in Africa: the Nigerian and Kenyan perspectives(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Emupenne, Olanrewaju Ojo; Small, MichelleThis study empirically examined the correlation between climate change (independent variable) and violent conflict (dependent variable), focusing on East Africa and West Africa. Climate change poses a serious threat to humanity and the ecosystem, particularly in Africa. Also, despite other serious challenges the continent faces, violent conflict remains among the most devastating. Various reasons, including poor leadership, social exclusion, and conflicting goals, are cited as causes of violent conflict in Africa. Recently, a new narrative has emerged suggesting climate change is a potential driver of violent conflicts. This study examines the correlation. So, to investigate this relationship, a survey research design was employed. The study adopted a descriptive research design, and four main research methods were used in the study namely, mixed methods research, comparative case study research, triangulation approach to social research, and convergent synthesis design. Also, the research utilized questionnaires that were directly formulated from the study’s hypotheses and were tested using a parametric regression model. Furthermore, the research employed Key Informant Interviews (KII), and the data gathered were processed using Atlas.ti, a Computer Assisted Qualitative Data Software (CAQDAS). Sampling techniques included purposive, stratified, and random sampling. The study population comprised government officials, environmentalists, academia, farmers, herders, youth leaders, and community leaders. 17 government officials, 7 academia, 6 environmentalists, 15 farmers, and 13 herders randomly selected in Nigeria, and 22 government officials, academia, and environmentalists, 15 farmers and members of farmers cooperatives, and 12 herders and members of livestock associations randomly selected in Kenya participated in the Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) to make a sample size of 110. In addition, 174 government officials, environmentalists, and academics completed the Set A questionnaire in Nigeria, 116 government officials, environmentalists, and academics completed the Set A questionnaire in Kenya, and 423 farmers, herders, youths, and community leaders completed the Set B questionnaire in Nigeria, and 205 respondents do the same in Kenya to make a sample of 918 respondents. In all, a total of 1,028 respondents participated in the study. The study was systematically guided by four research questions and two hypotheses. These research questions are as follows: (1) To what extent does climate change effect features in the geopolitics of peace and security in West Africa and East Africa? (2) Specifically, what is the correlation between climate change and farmer-herder conflicts in the Middle Belt region of Nigeria and farmer-herder conflicts in the Tana River County in Kenya? (3) What is the level of awareness about the effects of climate change among crop farmers, herders, and policymakers in the Northern region of Nigeria and Tana River County of Kenya, and how does the knowledge about the effects of climate change play a role in the different stakeholders’ approach to conflict? (4) What are the policy frameworks in Nigeria and Kenya that create awareness about climate change and mitigate the effects vi of climate change on violent conflict at both national and local levels? The quantitative data obtained were analyzed using SPSS Version 25 and R, while the qualitative data were analyzed using Atlas.ti. Results revealed a positive correlation between climate change and geopolitical dynamics of peace and security in West Africa and East Africa but did not establish causation. While climate change intensified, it contributed to shifts in geopolitical dynamics impacting peace and security. However, establishing causation requires more than observing correlation; it demands demonstrating that changes in the independent variable cause changes in the dependent variable. The findings of the study also revealed varying levels of knowledge and awareness regarding climate change among farmers, herders, and policymakers in Northern Nigeria and Tana River County of Kenya; divergent opinions about available policy frameworks for creating awareness about climate change and mitigating the effects of climate change on violent conflict. Some of the respondents agreed that policies were available, some were of the view that policies were available but not implemented while some expressed the fact that policies were not available. Considering these findings, several policy recommendations were made which include the integration of climate adaptation strategies with conflict prevention efforts, decision- making and policy implementation, creating more awareness programmes, indigenous approach and inclusivity, curbing migration, farmer/herder dialogue, and the establishment of special judicial commission solely for farmers and herders. In a nutshell, the study emphasized the need for nuanced understanding and consideration of multiple factors influencing the geopolitical landscape of AfricaItem Climate change and food security: Exploring factors of food production in Mozambique and Zimbabwe (2001-2019)(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Ramos, Dominic Carlos; Small, MichelleClimate change has emerged as a severe security threat which has worsened poverty, inequality and more importantly sustainable development throughout the global south. Southern African countries have been especially susceptible to climate change with severe weather patterns such as drought, land degradation, flooding and severe tropical cyclones that disproportionately affect poor communities. The effects of the impact of climate change on development and poor communities is observed with stubbornly high levels of food insecurity throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and by extension Southern Africa. Changing climates have forced farmers to undertake drastic measures to produce food for themselves and their communities with limited external support. In Mozambique and Zimbabwe alone around 3.5 million and 1.5 million subsistence and smallholder farmers respectively, are responsible for more than 70% of total food production (FAO 2011, World Bank 2019, INE 2014). This study explores the impact of climate variation and climate change on food production and food accessibility throughout Mozambique and Zimbabwe through a person-centred human security approach . The study further complements the challenges of food security by assessing the response of small-holder farmers in adapting and reacting to climate change. This study relied substantially on secondary sources such as regional reports, bulletins and journal articles alongside publications from NGOs, government departments and international organisations. The data was analysed through thematic and content analysis. The findings suggest that Mozambique and Zimbabwe remain highly vulnerable to climate change negatively affecting food insecure communities. Furthermore, while small-holder farmers have desperately undertaken various methods of adaptation they are unable to cope with extreme weather patterns. The findings underscore the necessity for interventions aimed at enabling farmers and vulnerable communities to adapt to climate change or, at the very least, mitigate its effects. This is crucial for preventing recurrent food and humanitarian crises.Item Understanding the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa’s Evolving Policies on the Role of Renewable Energy in South Africa’s Mineral Energy Complex(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024-01-31) Monaisa, Chere; Pillay, DevanThe concept of the just transition is widely regarded as organised labour’s response to the negative impact of climate change. It is used as a mechanism to reconcile the movement’s mandate to provide workers with decent jobs and the need to protect the environment. NUMSA is an example of a union that, during 2011-12, responded to the impact of climate change by developing its own policies and directly challenging government’s renewable energy policies. The union’s vision for South Africa is a socially owned renewable energy sector made up of a mix of energy parastatals, cooperatives, municipal-owned entities, and other forms of community energy enterprises. South Africa is heavily reliant on coal for its electricity generation. The government, the private sector, civil society, and organised labour mostly agree that there is a need to transition away from coal to renewable energy. Initially, the transition to renewable energy was framed as a choice between ‘jobs and environment’ and ‘jobs versus environment’. NUMSA’s vision of socially owned renewable energy displayed characteristics of active labour environmentalism that called for the transformative ‘jobs and environment with just transition’ despite its location in the fossil fuel sector. However, a series of events and decisions by a top leadership that is viewed as authoritarian and unenthusiastic about eco-socialism, has resulted in NUMSA adopting strategies in recent years that are, at best, seen as reactive and narrowly protecting workers – even though they purport to support a just transition to renewable energy. At worst, the union has been accused of anti-environmentalism and protecting coal and electricity workers regardless of the impact on the environment. It was this apparent shift and criticism of NUMSA that necessitated an analysis of its opposition to the closure of coal fired power stations to make way for renewable energy independent power producers. The findings point to a union that relies on its pioneering decarbonization policies to shield itself from legitimate criticism from labour climate activists and progressive environmental groups of its actual practice.Item The holiday climate index: applicability and suitability for the South African context(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Kristensen, Daniella; Fitchett, JenniferTourism is one of the largest economic sectors and continues to grow at a rapid pace. This sector is under threat by climate change, with Africa deemed to be most vulnerable to these changes. The projected climatic changes and increase in occurrence and intensity of extreme events over South Africa has an impact on overall tourism comfortability. Quantifying the climatic suitability of tourist destinations has been achieved through tourism climate indices. Some of these indices cover all tourism activities and some are specific to a tourism type (e.g., snow tourism). The Holiday Climate Index (HCI) was developed to determine climactic comfortability of beach and urban destinations and to address the limitations of previous indices. This study will provide the first determination of the appropriateness of the HCI for the South African context and calculations of the HCI for destinations across South Africa. The mean annual HCIurban and HCIbeach scores for the longest continuous period of each destination reveal that the majority of destinations demonstrate HCIurban and HCIbeach scores between 70 and 79 and are considered to have ‘very good’ climatic conditions for tourism. An exception is the HCIurban result for Durban which is scored as ‘good’. Generally, the highest HCI scores were calculated for Cape Town on the west coast, while the lowest HCI scores were calculated for Durban on the east coast. It was determined that McBoyle’s (2001) winter season peak distribution is applicable to seven of the 13 HCIurban and three of the five HCIbeach destinations. This indicates that the winter season is most suitable for tourism for most destinations. In comparing the results of destinations where both the HCIurban and HCIbeach are applicable, it was determined that all destinations, with the exception of Durban, have a minimal difference in the average annual HCI scores. Durban recorded a notable difference which demonstrated that the destination would be more suitable for beach tourism. The results of this study can be used to quantify the impacts of climate change on the tourism sector and assist tourism stakeholders in developing the capacity to adapt to the projected changes.Item Exploring Spatio-Temporal Climate Dynamics over Central Southern Africa: A Cross Border Analysis(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-07) Welff, Megan; Fitchett, Jennifer; Esterhuysen, AmandaUnderstanding the diverse nature of climate dynamics in southern Africa is imperative in the face of climate change. Ground-based meteorological stations provide high-resolution climate data that can be used to investigate and analyse climate in detail. However, southern African countries monitor and manage meteorological stations independently which presents various challenges when attempting cross-border studies. While there are many meteorological-station-based climate studies conducted for South Africa or Botswana, there are few that combine meteorological datasets from both these countries to investigate climate dynamics across political boundaries. In this study, meteorological data from Botswana Meteorological Services and the South African Weather Service spanning 1912-2019 is pre-processed, cleaned and combined to produce a cross-border dataset. A total of 44 stations covers the Gauteng and North West provinces in South Africa and the southern, Kweneng, Kgatleng, South-east and Kgalagadi districts of Botswana. The combined cross-border dataset includes the average monthly summer, winter and annual rainfall (RS, RW and RA respectively) and the average monthly minimum and maximum summer, winter and annual temperatures (TSmin, TSmax, TWmin, TWmax, TAmin and TAmax respectively). From the linear regression analysis, an overall increasing trend for temperature is identified barring two stations (TSmin and TAmin for Mahalapye Met station, and TWmin for Vaalharts). Additionally, for rainfall there is a significant decreasing trend identified. Lastly, the spatial variability of the region is determined using an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation in the GIS Software, ArcMap, to interpolate between stations. From this a west to east reduction in rainfall and a north-western to south-eastern decreasing temperature gradient is identified across the study region.Item Senior Decision Makers’ Perspectives on South Africa’s Climate Change Response Strategy(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2021) Taylor, AndrewThis research seeks to analyse the perspectives of senior decision makers of South Africa’s climate change response strategy, using Q Methodology as the principal research methodology. The research reveals 4 statistically significant perspectives and seeks to distil traits which exemplify these perspectives. These perspectives have been located within the current international commitments and domestic climate change response strategy of the Republic of South Africa. This research argues that the interdependence of the actors who are responsible for driving the climate change response strategy require a coordinated and structured approach to achieve meaningful change. This approach must be based on multi-sectoral cooperation, led by a nationally coordinated drive to implement decarbonisation strategies compatible with the undertakings made in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement. These strategies must be underpinned by a coherent response which sufficiently balances the trade-offs implicit in balancing a complex system such as climate change, more specifically, when set against the unique background of South Africa’s demographics, structural and economic inequality and natural environmentItem Evaluating the effectiveness of South Africa’s air quality legislation as a climate change mitigation tool(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Mlapisane, Simelweyinkosi; Lisa, ChamberlainThe global community is still grappling with the climate change crisis. Due to the intrinsic relationship between climate change and air quality, South Africa is addressing climate change through its air quality laws. This report demonstrates how these laws have been incorporated in a climate change context. It also evaluates whether the air quality laws have been robust enough to combat climate change. The report further argues that in practice, South Africa has fallen short, mainly due to a badly designed legal framework that has many loopholes, which has led to insufficient implementation. It goes on to make five recommendations on strengthening the legal framework to make it more effective. This report recommends that specific climate change legislation should be enacted; that South Africa should revisit and reform its current air quality laws; that the national government should strengthen the local government’s capacity to improve air quality; that there should be more cooperation between government departments; and that priority area management plans should contain penaltiesItem Extreme weather events and human health in South Africa: implications for climate services(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Manyuchi, Albert Edgar; Erasmus, Barend; Wright, Caradee; Vogel, ColeenExtreme weather events (EWEs), defined as ‘weather events that are rare at a particular place and time of the year’, have increasingly been affecting many countries worldwide (IPCC 2014). The increased occurrence and intensity of EWEs, among other factors, has increased public interest and demand for climate information. More detail is needed on EWEs and how they can be more effectively coupled to climate services in Africa. This study brings a compendium of empirical evidence, conceptual clarity and transdisciplinary approaches to policymakers, researchers and practitioners dealing with these crucial issues. The main aim of this study is to explore the human health effects of EWEs, particularly heat and the delivery of climate services for health in Africa. Through a systematic review, the study examines the potential impacts of heat on human health in Africa. Using a case study approach heathealth effects are evaluated including the status of climate services in the Agincourt subdistrict of South Africa. A novel systems theory-based conceptual framework and an inclusive analytical framework are employed to explore climate services delivery within the context of climate change adaptation. The study produces two main findings. First, EWEs particularly heat, potentially affects human health in Africa by changing mortality and morbidity patterns. In the Agincourt sub-district in particular, heat may be associated with adverse health effects on vulnerable populations, including inter alia the elderly, children and outdoor workers. Despite this, Africa-specific heat-health interventions and policy suggestions are scarce. Second, climate services are generally in embryonic stages of development and climate services for health in Agincourt subdistrict are non-existent. Within the South African context, the main barriers to delivery of climate services for health are paucity of interagency coordination and gaps in meteorological data. One of the key conclusions of the study is that African countries can promote development of climate services to adapt to EWEs such as heat. Heat, and heatwaves, for example, are already affecting populations, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with concomitant adverse effects on health outcomes on vulnerable population groups. The three key recommendations from this study are as follows. First, African policymakers and practitioners must avoid a reductionist approach to analysis of EWEs, especially heat impacts and start viewing these as harmful to human health. Therefore, governments must prioritise interventions, create institutions and formulate policy measures to deal with the health effects of heat within their national adaptations plans. Second, African countries must prioritise policy mixes that promote climate services in general and climate services for health in particular. And finally, further policy-science research that generates empirical evidence for African policymakers and practitioners engaged in international negotiations and programmes for climate change adaptation and climate services should be encouraged.Item Senior decision makers’ perspectives on South Africa’s climate change response strategy(2021) Taylor, AndrewThis research seeks to analyse the perspectives of senior decision makers of South Africa’s climate change response strategy, using Q Methodology as the principal research methodology. The research reveals 4 statistically significant perspectives and seeks to distil traits which exemplify these perspectives. These perspectives have been located within the current international commitments and domestic climate change response strategy of the Republic of South Africa. This research argues that the interdependence of the actors who are responsible for driving the climate change response strategy require a coordinated and structured approach to achieve meaningful change. This approach must be based on multi-sectoral cooperation, led by a nationally coordinated drive to implement decarbonisation strategies compatible with the undertakings made in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement. These strategies must be underpinned by a coherent response which sufficiently balances the trade-offs implicit in balancing a complex system such as climate change, more specifically, when set against the unique background of South Africa’s demographics, structural and economic inequality and natural environmentItem Perceived barriers to the adoption of low-carbon energy in the South African Energy-Intensive Industry(2021) Muditambi, LydiaCarbon dioxide is the predominant greenhouse gas associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. Energy-intensive industry is linked to high carbon emissions due to high energy consumption compared to other types of industry, hence the need for low-carbon energy options. With local and international pressure to reduce carbon emissions, this study seeks to explore the available options to facilitate low-carbon energy and to identify the barriers associated withtheir adoption within the South African energy-intensive industry. Most previous studies on this topicwere conducted for industrialized countries, and this study focus on understanding the barriers that affect South Africa and possibly other developing countries. Quantitative approach was employed using online survey and descriptive statistics to gather and analyse information on low-carbon energy options available and employed within the South African energy-intensive industry and to understand the barriers to their adoption. The study found that regulatory, economic, facility structural design, and culture and behavioural barriers exist in the South African energy-intensive industry. The barriers identified provides the basis for planning and resource allocation for the energy-intensive industry