4. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - Faculties submissions
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Item Applying predictive analytics to account for climate change in insurance risk management - A case study of Santam(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Malote, Asithandile; Cheruiyot, RoselyneWeather-related disasters have become more frequent and severe in the past decade. Insurance companies continuously face increased insurance claims pay outs for property and infrastructure damage, business interruption, and other weather-related insurance claims. This surge in weather-related insurance claims strains the financial resources of insurers, leading to rising premiums for policyholders and potentially reduced coverage in high-risk areas. Moreover, the unpredictability of weather patterns makes it challenging for insurers to accurately assess and price risk, leading to uncertainty in underwriting practices. To mitigate these challenges, insurers are increasingly investing in advanced analytics and data modelling techniques and risk management strategies. However, the long-term sustainability of the insurance industry depends on collaborative efforts to address the underlying causes of climate change. This case study explores the relationship between weather change-related occurrences and insurance claims, examining the correlation between these events and the financial ramifications experienced by the South African insurance industry. Additionally, the study investigates the specific impact of weather-related events on Santam as well as Santam's property insurance business unit, particularly focusing on the escalation of property and infrastructure damages attributable to such occurrences. Three multivariate linear regression models were developed to assess the relationships between the independent variables (number of weather-related events, average rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures) and dependent variables (insurance claims incurred, Santam’s net underwriting margin and Santam’s property net underwriting result) . The results of the study show that there is a statistically significant relationship between financial state of the non-life insurance industry and weather-related factors such as temperature, precipitation, and natural catastrophe events. These variables were also found to be key factors in the financial losses incurred by Santam as the results show a significant positive correlation between weather change-related events and weather-related insurance claims. This implies that the higher the frequency of weather-related catastrophes, the higher the number of weather-related claims. This outcome is similar to the previous studies which assessed the impact of climate change on weather-related damages and insurance claimsItem Responsiveness of South African semi-commercial farmers to climate change(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Maliba, Bheki; Saruchera, FannyAgriculture is crucial for sustaining rural livelihoods and promoting economic growth. However, climate change threatens agriculture as it is directly linked to climate factors. This study assesses how semi-commercial farmers are responding to climate change. The objectives were to (1) examine the perceptions of South Africa’s semi-commercial farmers on climate change; (2) assess the responsiveness of semi-commercial farmers to climate change; and (3) assess the influence of adaptation strategies on the performance of semi-commercial farmers. The data was collected through a self-administered questionnaire from 90 respondents and analysed. The demographic characteristics of the semi-commercial farmers were analysed using frequencies and descriptive statistics. In addition, a correlation analysis was conducted to determine relationships between different constructs, and multiple linear regression was used to model the relationship between variables. Most of the 90 respondents were 35 to 54 years old and had a high level of tertiary education (83.33%). The analysis of years in farming reveals a moderate experience level among participants, with 56.67% engaged in farming for 10-24 years. Rainfed agricultural practices dominated, with 57.78% relying solely on natural rainfall. Regarding access to credit, the mean score of 2.21 (standard deviation = 1.06) shows that, on average, respondents disagreed with the statements in the questionnaire about access to adequate credit, affordable lending rates, easy access to finance and alternative funding sources. Crop productivity indicated a positive correlation with soil and water conservation, and there was a positive correlation between changes in temperature and soil and water conservation. This suggests that their perception of temperature changes influences semi-commercial farmers' adaption strategies and that adopting climate strategies improves crop productivity. The study proved that soil and water conservation and crop diversification significantly predict crop productivity (performance). Recognising the positive correlation between soil and water conservation and crop diversification techniques and the perceived increased crop productivity, policymakers and agricultural extension services should prioritise and advocate for these strategies. Given the significant variations in respondents' access to credit, interventions should be tailored to the different financial needs of semi- commercial farmers. It is recommended that future research incorporate more comprehensive analyses of the development prospects of semi-commercial farmers, considering regional differences and assessing the long-term impact of adaptation strategies on actual agricultural productionItem Modelling current and future distributions of Warburgia species at continental (Africa) and local (South Africa) scales Samista Kim(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Rooplal, Samista Kim; Thompson, D.I.; Glennon, K.L.; Witkowski, E.T.F.Warburgia is a genus of trees and shrubs that is greatly valued in Africa for its use in traditional medicine. The genus contains four species, one of which has two subspecies: Warburgia elongata, W. salutaris, W. stuhlmannii, W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and Wugandensis subsp. ugandensis. Individuals are harvested primarily for their bark, which contains pharmacological compounds that are used to treat various ailments. Due to the high demand, species within the genus are overharvested throughout their range and have consequently become threatened by extinction. Warburgia salutaris, the pepper-bark tree, is the only species of the genus that naturally occurs in South Africa. Like its congeners, Wasalutaris is heavily exploited for its bark and has been listed as IUCN Endangered in South Africa. This dissertation, therefore, assesses the distributions of Warburgia species in eastern and southern Africa to identify new, potentially suitable areas to increase population numbers to aid in the conservation of the genus. The aim of the first part of the study was to assess the eastern and southern African distributions of Warburgia species. Species distribution models (SDMs) were created for the four Warburgia species and two subspecies, and the geographic distributions and key environmental predictors were identified for each taxon. Environmental niche analyses were also performed to understand whether the two subspecies of W. ugandensis should be considered as a single species in accordance with the ecological species concept. The second part of the study aimed to assess how the current South African distribution of W. salutaris will be affected by future climate change. An SDM was produced to assess the current distribution of W. salutaris in South Africa and identify its key predictor climate variables. The SDM was then extrapolated into the future (2070) using two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which are greenhouse gas emission scenarios that predict future climates under a probable and extreme scenario, respectively. Ecological niche analyses were also used to assess the degree to which W. salutaris’ climatic niche will change in response to the two climate change scenarios. Results showed that the distributions of Warburgia species are restricted and primarily influenced by climatic variables that likely impact their seeds’ and seedlings’ sensitivity to water stress and desiccation. Ecological niche modelling results show that the climatic niches of W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and W. ugandensis subsp. ugandensis are identical and should therefore be considered as a single species according to the ecological species concept. The South African distribution of W. salutaris is fragmented and restricted. The species’ current and future distribution is influenced by its sensitivity to frost and the fact that it produces seeds that are susceptible to drying out. SDMs predicted that the distribution of W. salutaris will shrink in eastern Limpopo and in parts of Mpumalanga, but increase in eastern KwaZulu-Natal by 2070 under both climate change scenarios. Overall, this species was predicted to contract from the Indian Ocean coastal belt and grassland biomes and expand into the savanna biome. This study has expanded our knowledge of the distributions and environmental drivers of Warburgia species. It was found that in general, Warburgia species have restricted ranges that are likely governed by their sensitivity to desiccation at the seed and seedling stages. Climate change is anticipated to negatively impact the populations of many plant species, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the environmental niche of W. salutaris will remain stable, its geographical distribution was predicted to expand further in the savanna biome along the eastern coast of South Africa in response to climate change. Results from this study support pursuing different conservation techniques, including propagating Warburgia populations around the Great Lakes of Africa and Mt. Kenya and in western Limpopo and eastern KwaZulu-Natal for W. salutaris only. This study therefore emphasizes the importance of using SDMs as a baseline to inform effective conservation efforts for important medicinal plant species