School of Economics and Finance (ETDs)

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    Essays on Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Buthelezi, Norbert Sfiso; Malikane, Christopher
    This thesis focuses and investigates the impact of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, whether the level of the inflation target is consistent with optimal economic performance and finally, we investigate whether inflation targeting affects the behaviour of fiscal policy in such a way as to deliver fiscal sustainability. This is important because many central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. In chapter 2, we investigate the effect of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance. We do so by formulating a measure of IT that is closely related to the degree of monetary policy activism that is used in the literature. Applying this to advanced and emerging market economies, we find that IT has an ambiguous effect on economic growth in advanced economies and it has negative effect in emerging markets. We also find mixed results on the effect of IT on inflation performance. Lastly, we find that IT tends to lower bond yields across economies. We argue that the financial market benefits of IT do not find expression in real economic activity because of the disconnect that may exist between financial markets and real economic activity. In chapter 3 we argue that there exists a non-linear relationship between inflation one hand and economic growth and unemployment rates on the other. IT requires an explicit announcement of a numerical target for inflation. However, it is not clear whether the announced targets are consistent with maximum economic growth and minimum unemployment rates. We derive a simple growth model in which economic growth and the unemployment rate are nonlinearly related to the inflation rate. Our findings are that there are some advanced economies that sacrifice growth to maintain low inflation rates. This sacrifice is more prevalent in emerging markets, and it ranges from 0.5 percentage points to 3 percentage points. The same results hold for the unemployment rate, excess unemployment rate to maintain the low inflation targets ranges from 0.5 to 4.5 percentage points. We argue that policymakers should consider ways to align inflation targets to optimal levels in order to include more people into employment. In chapter 4 we investigate whether the implementation of fiscal policy is consistent with the monetary policy stance. A number of economies have adopted inflation targeting as an overall framework to guide monetary policy. However, a key requirement of this framework is that fiscal policy should not be implemented in a manner that is not consistent with inflation targeting. We investigate the behaviour of fiscal authorities under inflation targeting by estimating simple fiscal rules that incorporate the targets of monetary policy as normally specified in simple Taylor rules. Our results suggest that for many of the economies in our sample, fiscal authorities respond in a counter-cyclical manner. In advanced economies they do not restrain fiscal policy when inflation rises. This is in contrast to fiscal authorities in emerging markets. Lastly, we do not find uniform adherence to Bohn’s principle of fiscal sustainability across economies
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    Examining the relationship between household debt and economic performance in South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-02) Karombe, Stephen; Fasanya, Ismail
    High level of debt has been a major concern in the South Africa recent times. The prevalence of high debt levels hinders savings and investments, thus exerting a detrimental influence on economic growth. This surge in debt can be attributed to the consumer boom experienced in the past decade and the recent proliferation of credit cards, which have made it easier for consumers to access goods and services. This study evaluates the link between household debt and economic performance and characterises the implications of changes in household debt on economic growth in South Africa using the Toda Yamamoto VAR framework, using quarterly data covering the period 2008Q1 to 2022Q2. The connection between household debt and economic growth lies in the Life Cycle Hypothesis. The following findings are discernible from the analysis. First, the study finds that there is a bi-directional relationship between economic growth and mortgage loans and a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and household debt to disposable income ratio. Second, household debt to disposable income has a significant impact on economic growth, whilst the debt service ratio insignificantly affects economic growth with a smaller margin. Third, economic growth responds positively to mortgage loans, while a positive response to household debt exists which is transitory and positive. These results suggest that policymakers should encourage economic agents to take mortgage loans to boost economic growth in the short run. Household debt may be used to boost the economy in the short run but may deter economic growth in the long run. In the meantime, nothing maybe be done in items of debt service ratio as it has no significant impact, however, constant monitoring may be applied to avoid creeping in of debt overhang in the future. Access to household debt should be monitored and controlled since high debt significantly impacts economic growth in the long run
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    An investigation of the relationship between ICT infrastructure and economic growth of emerging market
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-02) Jiang, Jun Wen; Fasanya, Ismail
    The study examines the link between Information and Communication Technology, institutional quality, and economic growth in emerging markets over the period of 2000 to 2019, using the system Generalized Method of Moments. The connection between economic growth and technology lies on the framework of exogenous growth model. The following findings are discernible from the study. First, a substantial positive relationship exists between internet usage and economic growth, while a negative association between economic growth and fixed telephone users is evident. Second, a positive association between growth and innovation exist in emerging markets, whilst institutions reveal a negative association. These findings have a significant policy implication for policymakers to monitor innovation factors rather than institutional quality to bypass the digital divide. Consequently, policymakers should pay attention to the benefits of Information and Communication technology usage by means of reducing entries cost whilst improving network facilities transfers
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    Economic growth and public debt: patterns and lessons between advanced, emerging, and declining growth economies
    (University of the Witswatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-09-08) Shamu, Mbali N.D.; Bhoola, Fatima
    This research investigates the causal relationship between economic growth and public debt for economies in different growth categories: advanced, emerging and declining-growth economies, the latter being a new category introduced by this study. The study aims to answer the question: Does the level of economic growth affect public debt accumulation? The results reveal that in advanced economies growth is not a significant explanatory variable for public debt accumulation nor is there a significant long-run relationship between growth and public debt. For emerging and declining growth economies, the opposite holds- economic growth is a significant explanatory variable for public debt accumulation
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    Financial sector development and economic growth in South Africa: role of the banking sector
    (2022) Monareng, Kabelo Precious
    This “study examines effects of the efficiency of the financial sector on economic growth in South Africa through an augmented Solow-Swan growth model using annual data from 1975 to 2020. The financial sector development is characterised by the role of the banking sector in enhancing growth through the productive use of a country’s stock of financial capital. In this study, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and instrumental variable (IV) models are used to estimate the derived augmented financial sector induced growth regressions. The ARDL method observes a positive but insignificant effect of financial sector development on economic growth. However, using internal instruments, instrumental variable regression provides joint endogeneity between regressors. The IV estimation results show that financial sector development has a significant positive effect on economic growth, hence, increased efficiency in the banking sector can lead to enhanced growth. In addition, the results observe that the quality of institutions are crucial to the relationship between financial sector and economic growth. To this end, policymakers should continue to improve financial inclusion and the quality of institutions, which could potentially spur economic growth in South Africa.