School of Economics and Finance (ETDs)

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End date: 2024Subject: search.filters.subject.SDG-8: Decent work and economic growth

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 43
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    Land Rights in Kenya: The Role of Law in Protection against Forced Evictions
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Njoroge, Stephen Chege; Moyo, Khulekani
    The land question in Kenya from the colonial to the post-colonial periods has direct implications to the prevalence of forced evictions affecting individuals and communities. Land laws and policies enacted during the stated periods contributed largely to the problem of forced evictions. The independence Constitution also did not address the problem. The promulgation of the Constitution of Kenya 2010 (the Constitution) however laid the basis forprotection against forced evictions. The Constitution guarantees the right to housing, which is a component for protection from forced evictions as well as the right to dignity. However, it does not make provision for protection from forced evictions in the Bill of Rights. The legislature has not enacted substantive legislation on forced evictions. The courts have made efforts, though minimally, to infuse international standards on evictions in their decisions. This thesis interrogates the Kenyan legal framework, policies and institutions dealing with land and housing to identify their inefficiencies in protecting against forced evictions and has suggested recommendations for reform. The thesis establishes that Kenyan law inadequately protects individuals and communities against forced evictions. The thesis answers questions: (i) what are the limitations of the legal and institutional framework in addressing the problem of forced evictions in Kenya? (ii) what are the legal and policy measures that are necessary to mitigate the problem of forced evictions? (iii) what can Kenya learn from another comparable jurisdiction in addressing the problem? In answering the questions, the thesis provides a synopsis of issues related to forced evictions which include access to land and security of tenure. The thesis examines the genesis of the problem of forced evictions and its prevalence on individuals living in informal settlements, indigenous communities and other communities. Importantly, the thesis evaluates the impact of forced evictions on human dignity as well as interdependence of all rights to demonstrate that forced evictions have implication to other human rights. The thesis discusses protection from forced evictions in international law through the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, thematic instruments, regional human rights instruments and institutions and their relevance in incorporating international best practices towards addressing the problem of forced evictions in Kenya. The thesis also draws best practices from the South African legal framework, norms, jurisprudence and judicial developments with a view to recommending the incorporation of best practices on land rights and protection against forced evictions in Kenya. This study is significant and breaks new ground because it measures the Kenyan legal framework against international norms and practices in the area of land rights and forced evictions. By drawing best practices, the study highlights the limitations and deficiencies in the Kenyan legal framework and provides options for reforms. The development of an appropriate legal framework with substantive and procedural safeguards on evictions for individuals and communities in Kenya serves as the original contribution of the study
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    Essays on Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Buthelezi, Norbert Sfiso; Malikane, Christopher
    This thesis focuses and investigates the impact of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, whether the level of the inflation target is consistent with optimal economic performance and finally, we investigate whether inflation targeting affects the behaviour of fiscal policy in such a way as to deliver fiscal sustainability. This is important because many central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. In chapter 2, we investigate the effect of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance. We do so by formulating a measure of IT that is closely related to the degree of monetary policy activism that is used in the literature. Applying this to advanced and emerging market economies, we find that IT has an ambiguous effect on economic growth in advanced economies and it has negative effect in emerging markets. We also find mixed results on the effect of IT on inflation performance. Lastly, we find that IT tends to lower bond yields across economies. We argue that the financial market benefits of IT do not find expression in real economic activity because of the disconnect that may exist between financial markets and real economic activity. In chapter 3 we argue that there exists a non-linear relationship between inflation one hand and economic growth and unemployment rates on the other. IT requires an explicit announcement of a numerical target for inflation. However, it is not clear whether the announced targets are consistent with maximum economic growth and minimum unemployment rates. We derive a simple growth model in which economic growth and the unemployment rate are nonlinearly related to the inflation rate. Our findings are that there are some advanced economies that sacrifice growth to maintain low inflation rates. This sacrifice is more prevalent in emerging markets, and it ranges from 0.5 percentage points to 3 percentage points. The same results hold for the unemployment rate, excess unemployment rate to maintain the low inflation targets ranges from 0.5 to 4.5 percentage points. We argue that policymakers should consider ways to align inflation targets to optimal levels in order to include more people into employment. In chapter 4 we investigate whether the implementation of fiscal policy is consistent with the monetary policy stance. A number of economies have adopted inflation targeting as an overall framework to guide monetary policy. However, a key requirement of this framework is that fiscal policy should not be implemented in a manner that is not consistent with inflation targeting. We investigate the behaviour of fiscal authorities under inflation targeting by estimating simple fiscal rules that incorporate the targets of monetary policy as normally specified in simple Taylor rules. Our results suggest that for many of the economies in our sample, fiscal authorities respond in a counter-cyclical manner. In advanced economies they do not restrain fiscal policy when inflation rises. This is in contrast to fiscal authorities in emerging markets. Lastly, we do not find uniform adherence to Bohn’s principle of fiscal sustainability across economies
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    Is the Fed Hindering Development? Impacts of US interest rates on growth, income distribution and macroeconomic policy space in developing countries: a demand-led growth model
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Vaz, João Emboava; Hein, Eckhard; Lavoie, Marc; Tinel, Bruno
    The US Fed has responded to recent inflation pressures with the most rapid interest rate hike since the 1979-82 Volcker’s disinflation. The hike in the beginning of the 1980s was followed by harsh external crises in the developing world, especially in Latin America. The current situation adds tot that the role the US monetary policy plays on quickly shifting massive capital flows in a world of open and volatile capital accounts (Rey, 2015). On the other hand, interest rate levels remain low on historical levels and developing countries come from decades of relative growth and record international reserve accumulation. Following the recent development in external policy space debates, this thesis aims to understand how a deterioration of external conditions, especially through higher foreign interest rates, may impact growth, income distribution, and macroeconomic policy space in developing countries.
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    An analysis of transient and chronic multidimensional poverty in South Africa between 2008 and 2017
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Munzhelele, Tumelo
    This study derives a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for each wave using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) between 2008 to 2017. The MPI is measured using the counting method of Alkire and Foster (2011). In addition, the duration approach of Foster (2009) is used to measure, depending on the MPI, whether households suffer multidimensional chronic or transient poverty. Furthermore, variables that increase a household's likelihood of experiencing chronic or transient multidimensional poverty as opposed to never experiencing multidimensional poverty are found using multinomial logit regression analysis. The results show that the MPI decreased from approximately 7% to 4% between 2008 and 2017. Additionally, the share of South African households which experienced multidimensional poverty decreased from approximately 15% to 10% between 2008 and 2017. However, the intensity of poverty has only decreased by two percentage points from 44% during the same period. This indicates that there has not been much progress in the number of dimensions in which poor households are deprived even as multidimensional poverty decreased. Years spent in school for adults living in the household and unemployment were the dimensions which contributed the most towards the MPI for households that were either chronically or transiently poor. Approximately 73% of households in South Africa never experienced Multidimensional Poverty between 2008 and 2017. Based on the specified deprivation score cut-off, between 1% and 13% of South African households were living in chronic multidimensional poverty. Transient multidimensional poverty affected more than 25% of South Africans. Notably, a higher portion of South Africa's multidimensional poverty is transitory in nature. Black households and female-headed households had the highest incidence of both chronic and transient multidimensional poverty. The multinomial logit model indicates that the likelihood of experiencing chronic or transient multidimensional poverty is higher among households led by individuals without formal education, those with an economically inactive head, and those based in rural areas.
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    The role of loyalty programmes on retail fuel site profitability in Gauteng
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2021) Mtungwa, Muzi; Lamola, Medupi
    Loyalty programmes are one of a number of instruments used by businesses to retain existing customers, attract new customers and in the process retain them over a long term to sustain business profitability. They have been extensively investigated in the developed world with models developed to explain their role in customer retention. In the developing world, they are still being studied to understand if the models that have been developed in the developed world can be extended to the developing countries. Loyalty programmes were extended to the fuel retail industry in 2010 by First National Bank (FNB) and its oil partner, Engen Petroleum. The role of these programmes in the fuel retail industry and their correlation to profitability, whether positive or negative has received little attention from researchers. Here, the author reports on the correlation of these programmes to business profitability. The report shows that there is a positive correlation between these programmes and the profitability of an oil company, while at the same time the report supports the assertion by the non-loyalty programme oil companies that these programmes have a negative effect on their business. These non- loyalty programme oil companies which have a market share of less than 7 percent have been forced to exit the retail industry due to the introduction of these programmes by the major oil companies and their partners. The findings recommend that the role of these programmes in the fuel retail industry is further researched as the authourities do not allow for discounting of the retail price of petrol
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    An assessment of the determinants of IT entrepreneurs' level of awareness of the most common causes of start-ups failures in Johannesburg, South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Mkhavele, Nhlamulo
    In South Africa, more than 70% to 80% of small to medium-sized businesses (SMMEs) fail within the first three years. In order to gain insight into the level of awareness of IT start-up entrepreneurs regarding the causes of SMME failure, this study conducted an empirical review of the literature and developed a hypothetical framework, the study builds on the work done by Justino Vicente on the factors influencing the failure of small enterprises in order to achieve its objective. It then makes recommendations for future research on the topic. In the aftermath of several economic adversities, prominent among them unemployment, poverty, and HIV and AIDS, SMME failure and success are key among national strategic concerns in the Republic of South Africa, where this study is being conducted in the Johannesburg region. The research employed a quantitative research methodology and the main instruments for gathering data was a survey/ questionnaire, and the snowball sampling method was used. 100 ICT start-ups owners and managers received surveys. The statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) program was employed to analyse the quantitative data collected. Tables, pie charts, and bar charts were used to display the statistically descriptive results. Due to the many different reasons why SMMEs fail, this study focused its conclusions on the following factors: determinants of IT entrepreneurs' level of awareness of the most common causes of start-ups failures in Johannesburg, South Africa, determinants of accessibility to information of the most common causes of start-up failures and the willingness of entrepreneurs to consume information related to start-up failures were also presented. Among the results of failure include unemployment, societal ills, poverty, and loss of revenue. The study concludes by recommending various interventions to improve the level of awareness
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    An Essay on the Welfare and Growth Implication of the Energy Mix in the South African Economy
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Sesele, Masedi; Kutela, Gelo
    This study investigated the welfare and growth implications of introducing renewable energy in South Africa’s energy mix. The investigation is divided into three chapters, providing a holistic analysis of climate change mitigation on developmental goals in South Africa. The first chapter determines the impact of the usage of non-renewable energy sources on selected sectors’ economic output in South Africa. The second chapter determines the pass-through effect and the response of consumer prices to renewable energy share increases in South Africa while using the exchange rate as a threshold. The third chapter determines through a natural experiment the impact of renewable energy policies such as the White Paper on the Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa (1998), the White Paper on Renewable Energy Policy (2003) and the Integrated Resource Plan (2010) on South Africa’s economic growth by comparing the gross domestic product (GDP) growth path before and after the introduction of these policies. Results from the second chapter showed that coal was the least contributing factor to production for most sectors, showing that excessive coal usage may hinder economic output within the country. Petroleum has a positive and significant effect on the transport and agriculture sectors but has less of an effect on the other sectors. Electricity is a major contributing factor to production in some sectors, except for the industry sector, which may be adversely affected by the increasing electricity costs and constant load shedding in the country. Results from the third chapter showed that at an exchange rate threshold value of 7.7 R/$, the share of renewable energy pass-through to consumer prices is statistically significant below and above the threshold exchange rate value. When the exchange rate is above the threshold value, the pass- through effect is negative, indicating that an increase in the share of clean energy will decrease consumer prices. These results are largely attributed to the cost of renewable energy, which has been declining significantly in periods where the exchange rate was above the threshold value and, as a result, it had a negative pass-through effect on consumer prices. Results from the fourth chapter showed that each of the three green energy policies has a positive impact on the GDP, which shows that implementing renewable energy policies in South Africa has not only resulted in generating clean, renewable energy but also fosters economic growth within the country. Using a natural experiment, the study constructed a synthetic GDP growth path that vi would have been in place had there been no renewable energy intervention and compared it with the current GDP growth path post the intervention of renewable energy policy to identify the causal positive impact of green energy on economic growth. This thesis’ results encourage policymakers to further implement and improve renewable energy policies as the share of clean energy within South Africa’s energy mix not only mitigates climate change by decreasing greenhouse gas emissions but also positively affects economic growth by creating a clean ecosystem, job creation, increasing innovation and capital formation and overall improving total factor productivity in South Africa and the standard of living of ordinary South Africans
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    Bank regulation, cross-border banking and interest rate pass- through in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-03) Gondwe, Sopani; Mahonye, Nyasha
    The thesis comprises five interrelated chapters that seek to advance empirical literature on banking and financial sector stability (risk) by focusing on some salient regulatory and monetary issues of policy relevance and interest to developing countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The market structure and regulatory environment in which banks operate in SSA have significantly changed over the last two decades, and the banking systems of a number of countries have also markedly grown during this period. For instance, and especially after the global financial crisis (GFC), supervisory authorities in most countries introduced new regulations, and/or in some cases, enhanced their existing bank regulatory frameworks to conform with international best practice and standards. However, questions have been raised as to whether developing countries like those in SSA need to adopt international regulatory standards indiscriminately – and whether the benefits arising from the adoption of such policies or standards outweigh the costs. At the same time, the SSA region has witnessed significant penetration of foreign banks – a development that has heightened the risk of financial contagion and cross-border spill over effects. In most countries, there have also been considerable changes in the design and implementation of monetary policy over the past two decades. These changes have triggered a considerable debate on whether and how regulatory and structural factors in the financial system impede or facilitate monetary policy transmission – a debate that, as yet, is not fully settled. This study interrogates the above issues by focussing on three related questions. First, how do regulations – that are based on international best practice and standards, impact or shape risk- taking behaviour (i.e. stability) of banks in SSA? Second, what are the banking sector stability implications of increased foreign bank penetration in the host countries? Finally, how does competition and capital regulation affect the transmission of monetary policy to commercial banks’ lending and deposit rates i.e. the interest rate pass-through (IRPT) in SSA? In addressing each question, the study applied panel econometric analyses using bank and country-level data. The data was obtained from various sources, namely; Bankfocus database, the World Bank Regulatory and Supervision Surveys (BRSSs), IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS), IMF Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGIs), Global Financial Development Database (GFDD, 2019), and The Heritage Foundation.
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    Price Volatility in Maize Futures of Major Exporters
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-06) Sayed, Ayesha; Auret, Christo
    Futures markets provide a platform for risk management and price discovery. Significant structural changes have taken place in futures markets over the last two decades transforming them into a volatile and fast paced trading environment, with heightened volatility expected to continue. Increased volatility in grain futures markets is of special concern to farmers, traders, academics, and policy makers as it impacts food security, renewable energy and the regulation of futures exchanges. Price volatility is investigated for maize futures listed in South Africa on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), in the United States on the Chicago Board of Trade, in Argentina on the Mercado a Termino de Beunes Aires and in Brazil on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange. A particular focus is placed on South African white maize futures, given its liquidity on SAFEX, its uniqueness as the only listed white maize contract traded on a futures exchange globally, and the importance of white maize as South Africa’s largest produced field crop and main staple food. This thesis investigates the effectiveness of price limits which are found to be ineffective in curbing volatility, and instead found to accelerate prices towards their limits prematurely, exacerbate volatility and impair market liquidity. The impact of sentiment as measured through volatility indices is also studied using a time-varying vector autoregressive framework. The results confirm the influence of sentiment on trading behaviour in white maize futures, and subsequently on price volatility. The level of speculative activity and its impact on price volatility is also examined using Granger-causality, variance decomposition and impulse response functions. Finally, volatility spillovers among key major exporters of maize is investigated using four multivariate GARCH models and a DCC-GARCH Connectedness approach, with the results confirm significant own and cross volatility spillovers and time-varying interdependence. This thesis makes novel contributions to the field of futures risk management. The work covered in this thesis is among the first to investigate price limits on SAFEX, the first to include SAVI White Maize in an empirical analysis, the first to quantify the level of speculative activity in the white maize futures market and the first to investigate spillover and dynamic connectedness in maize futures among key maize exporters
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    Examining the relationship between household debt and economic performance in South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-02) Karombe, Stephen; Fasanya, Ismail
    High level of debt has been a major concern in the South Africa recent times. The prevalence of high debt levels hinders savings and investments, thus exerting a detrimental influence on economic growth. This surge in debt can be attributed to the consumer boom experienced in the past decade and the recent proliferation of credit cards, which have made it easier for consumers to access goods and services. This study evaluates the link between household debt and economic performance and characterises the implications of changes in household debt on economic growth in South Africa using the Toda Yamamoto VAR framework, using quarterly data covering the period 2008Q1 to 2022Q2. The connection between household debt and economic growth lies in the Life Cycle Hypothesis. The following findings are discernible from the analysis. First, the study finds that there is a bi-directional relationship between economic growth and mortgage loans and a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and household debt to disposable income ratio. Second, household debt to disposable income has a significant impact on economic growth, whilst the debt service ratio insignificantly affects economic growth with a smaller margin. Third, economic growth responds positively to mortgage loans, while a positive response to household debt exists which is transitory and positive. These results suggest that policymakers should encourage economic agents to take mortgage loans to boost economic growth in the short run. Household debt may be used to boost the economy in the short run but may deter economic growth in the long run. In the meantime, nothing maybe be done in items of debt service ratio as it has no significant impact, however, constant monitoring may be applied to avoid creeping in of debt overhang in the future. Access to household debt should be monitored and controlled since high debt significantly impacts economic growth in the long run