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Item Digital delivery of Behavioural Activation therapy to overcome depression and facilitate social and economic transitions of adolescents in South Africa(2021-04-19) Prof. Michelle Craske; Prof. Sarah-Jayne Blakemore; Prof. Heather O’Mahen; Prof. Alastair Van Heerden; Prof. Stephen Tollman; Prof. Crick Lund; Prof. Tholene Sodi; Dr Kate Orkin; Dr Mahreen Mahmud; Dr Emma Kilford; Ms Julia Ruiz Pozuelo; Dr Bianca Moffett; Dr Xavier Gómez-Olivé; Dr Rhian Twine; Prof. Kathleen Kahn; Prof. Alan SteinAdolescence is a critical period in life when young people negotiate independence and increased responsibility and make important decisions. The incidence of depression peaks during adolescence, coinciding with the development of multiple cognitive functions in the brain. Adolescent depression is a key public health concern, with high prevalence rates reported among rural and low resource communities in South Africa. Depression impacts young people’s ability to make decisions and manage stressful situations in life.2 It has also been linked to poor social, economic, and health outcomes including early pregnancy, HIV, lower educational attainment and poverty in adulthood. Evidence is urgently needed for cost-effective and scalable interventions targeting adolescent depression. Behavioural activation (BA) is a psychological therapy which focuses on making links between mood and behaviour. It does this by identifying activities that are meaningful and positively reinforcing for the individual (activation), and addressing processes that inhibit activation (e.g. avoidance). BA has been shown to be effective in treating adolescent depression, and can be adapted to diverse sociocultural contexts. In addition to improving depressive symptoms, studies suggest that BA targets cognitive functions involved in depression, including executive function and social cognition. These functions develop substantially during adolescence and are associated with a range of future socioeconomic outcomes. Further, BA has been successfully delivered online and through trained peer mentors with limited specialist intervention, offering a scalable solution to overcome the lack of access to psychological therapies. The proposed trial will be a pilot randomised controlled trial to evaluate digital delivery of Behavioural Activation therapy for adolescents with depression in rural South Africa (DoBAt study). Central to the study is an iterative process to co-design the Kuamsha app (meaning “activate” in Swahili) through extensive formative work with adolescents from the study site. We will assess the feasibility, acceptability and determine the preliminary effectiveness of the intervention (primary objective). As a secondary objective, we will locally adapt and pilot outcome measures of mental health, cognition, risky behaviours, socioeconomic measures, and collect descriptive data to inform the development of a further larger trial. has context menuItem Changing Knowledge and Attitudes Towards HIV Treatment‑as‑Prevention and “Undetectable=Untransmittable”: A Systematic Review(2021-04-30) Jacob Bor; Charlie Fischer; Mirva Modi; Bruce Richman; Cameron Kinker; Rachel King; Sarah K. Calabrese; Idah Mokhele; Tembeka Sineke; Thembelihle Zuma; Sydney Rosen; Till Bärnighausen; Kenneth H. Mayer; Dorina Onoya2People on HIV treatment with undetectable virus cannot transmit HIV sexually (Undetectable=Untransmittable, U=U). However, the science of treatment-as-prevention (TasP) may not be widely understood by people with and without HIV who could beneft from this information. We systematically reviewed the global literature on knowledge and attitudes related to TasP and interventions providing TasP or U=U information. We included studies of providers, patients, and communities from all regions of the world, published 2008–2020. We screened 885 papers and abstracts and identifed 72 for inclusion. Studies in high-income settings reported high awareness of TasP but gaps in knowledge about the likelihood of transmission with undetectable HIV. Greater knowledge was associated with more positive attitudes towards TasP. Extant literature shows low awareness of TasP in Africa where 2 in 3 people with HIV live. The emerging evidence on interventions delivering information on TasP suggests benefcial impacts on knowledge, stigma, HIV testing, and viral suppression. Review was pre-registered at PROSPERO: CRD42020153725Item Prevalence and socio-demographic associations of diet and physical activity risk-factors for cardiovascular disease in Bo, Sierra Leone(2021-10-10) Tahir Bockarie; Maria Lisa Odland; Haja Wurie; Rashid Ansumana; Joseph Lamin; Miles Witham; Oyinlola Oyebode; Justine DaviesBackground: Little is known about modifiable dietary and physical activity risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Sierra Leone. This information is critical to the development of health improvement interventions to reduce the prevalence of these diseases. This cross-sectional study investigated the prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of dietary and physical activity risk behaviours amongst adults in Bo District, Sierra Leone. Methods: Adults aged 40+ were recruited from 10 urban and 30 rural sub-districts in Bo. We examined risk factors including: ≤150 min of moderate or vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) weekly, physical inactivity for ≥3 h daily, ≤5 daily portions of fruit and vegetables, and salt consumption (during cooking, at the table, and in salty snacks). We used logistic regression to investigate the relationship between these outcomes and participants' socio-demographic characteristics. Results: 1978 eligible participants (39.1% urban, 55.6% female) were included in the study. The prevalence of behavioural risk factors was 83.6% for ≤5 daily portions of fruit and vegetables; 41.4 and 91.6% for adding salt at the table or during cooking, respectively and 31.1% for eating salty snacks; 26.1% for MVPA ≤150 min weekly, and 45.6% for being physically inactive ≥3 h daily. Most MVPA was accrued at work (nearly 24 h weekly). Multivariable analysis showed that urban individuals were more likely than rural individuals to consume ≤5 daily portions of fruit and vegetables (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.09, 95% Confidence Interval (1.04-1.15)), add salt at the Table (OR 1.88 (1.82-1.94)), eat salty snacks (OR 2.00 (1.94-2.07)), and do MVPA ≤150 min weekly (OR 1.16 (1.12-1.21)). Male individuals were more likely to add salt at the Table (OR 1.23 (1.20-1.27)) or consume salty snacks (OR 1.35 (1.31-1.40)) than female individuals but were less likely to report the other behavioural risk-factors examined. Generally, people in lower wealth quintiles had lower odds of each risk factor than those in the higher wealth quintiles. Conclusion: Dietary risk factors for CVD are highly prevalent, particularly among urban residents, of Bo District, Sierra Leone. Our findings highlight that forthcoming policies in Sierra Leone need to consider modifiable risk factors for CVD in the context of urbanisation.Item Estimated effect of increased diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among low-income and middle-income countries: a microsimulation model(2021-09-22) Sanjay Basu; David Flood; Pascal Geldsetzer; Michaela Theilmann; Maja E Marcus; Cara Ebert; Mary Mayige; Roy Wong-McClure; Farshad Farzadfar; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Kokou Agoudavi; Bolormaa Norov; Corine Houehanou; Glennis Andall-Brereton; Mongal Gurung; Garry Brian; Pascal Bovet; Joao Martins; Rifat Atun; Till Bärnighausen; Sebastian Vollmer; Jen Manne-Goehler; Justine DaviesBackground Given the increasing prevalence of diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we aimed to estimate the health and cost implications of achieving different targets for diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among LMICs. Methods We constructed a microsimulation model to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost and healthcare costs of diagnosis, treatment, and control of blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia among people with diabetes in LMICs. We used individual participant data—specifically from the subset of people who were defined as having any type of diabetes by WHO standards—from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys (2006–18) spanning 15 world regions to estimate the baseline 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke), heart failure (ejection fraction of <40%, with New York Heart Association class III or IV functional limitations), end-stage renal disease (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min per 1∙73 m² or needing dialysis or transplant), retinopathy with severe vision loss (<20/200 visual acuity as measured by the Snellen chart), and neuropathy with pressure sensation loss (assessed by the Semmes-Weinstein 5∙07/10 g monofilament exam). We then used data from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials to estimate the reduction in risk and the WHO OneHealth tool to estimate costs in reaching either 60% or 80% of diagnosis, treatment initiation, and control targets for blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia recommended by WHO guidelines. Costs were updated to 2020 International Dollars, and both costs and DALYs were computed over a 10-year policy planning time horizon at a 3% annual discount rate. Findings We obtained data from 23 678 people with diabetes from 67 countries. The median estimated 10-year risk was 10∙0% (IQR 4∙0–18∙0) for cardiovascular events, 7∙8% (5∙1–11∙8) for neuropathy with pressure sensation loss, 7∙2% (5∙6–9∙4) for end-stage renal disease, 6∙0% (4∙2–8∙6) for retinopathy with severe vision loss, and 2∙6% (1∙2–5∙3) for congestive heart failure. A target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to reduce DALYs lost from diabetes complications from a median population-weighted loss to 1097 DALYs per 1000 population over 10 years (IQR 1051–1155), relative to a baseline of 1161 DALYs, primarily from reduced cardiovascular events (down from a median of 143 to 117 DALYs per 1000 population) due to blood pressure and statin treatment, with comparatively little effect from glycaemic control. The target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to produce an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304–1409), with the majority of decreased costs from reduced cardiovascular event management, counterbalanced by increased costs for blood pressure and statin treatment, producing an overall incremental costeffectiveness ratio of $1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304–1409). Interpretation Reducing complications from diabetes in LMICs is likely to require a focus on scaling up blood pressure and statin medication treatment initiation and blood pressure medication titration rather than focusing on increasing screening to increase diabetes diagnosis, or a glycaemic treatment and control among people with diabetes.Item Community surveillance and response to maternal and child deaths in low- and middleincome countries: A scoping review(2021-03-16) Tariro J. BaseraID; Kathrin Schmitz; Jessica PriceID; Merlin Willcox; Edna N. Bosire; Ademola Ajuwon; Marjorie Mbule; Agnes Ronan; Fiona Burtt; Esca Scheepers; Jude IgumborBackground Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems do not produce comprehensive data on maternal and child deaths in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with most births and deaths which occur outside the formal health system going unreported. Community-based death reporting, investigation and review processes are being used in these settings to augment official registration of maternal and child deaths and to identify deathspecific factors and associated barriers to maternal and childcare. This study aims to review how community-based maternal and child death reporting, investigation and review processes are carried out in LMICs. Methods We conducted a scoping review of the literature published in English from January 2013 to November 2020, searching PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Joanna Briggs, The Cochrane Library, EBM reviews, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. We used descriptive analysis to outline the scope, design, and distribution of literature included in the study and to present the content extracted from each article. The scoping review is reported following the PRISMA reporting guideline for systematic reviews. Results Of 3162 screened articles, 43 articles that described community-based maternal and child death review processes across ten countries in Africa and Asia were included. A variety of approaches were used to report and investigate deaths in the community, including identification of deaths by community health workers (CHWs) and other community informants, reproductive age mortality surveys, verbal autopsy, and social autopsy. Community notification of deaths by CHWs complements registration of maternal and child deaths missed by routinely collected sources of information, including the CRVS systems which mostly capture deaths occurring in health facilities. However, the accuracy and completeness of data reported by CHWs are sub-optimal. Conclusions Community-based death reporting complements formal registration of maternal and child deaths in LMICs. While research shows that community-based maternal and child death reporting was feasible, the accuracy and completeness of data reported by CHWs are suboptimal but amenable to targeted support and supervision. Studies to further improve the process of engaging communities in the review, as well as collection and investigation of deaths in LMICs, could empower communities to respond more effectively and have a greater impact on reducing maternal and child mortality.Item Developing and evaluating a frailty index for older South Africans—findings from the HAALSI study(2021-06-09) Fred J. Barker; Justine I. Davies; F. Xavier Gomez-Olive; Kathleen Kahn; Fiona E. Matthews; Collin F. Payne; Joshua A. Salomon; Stephen M. Tollman; Alisha N.Wade; Richard W.Walker; Miles D.WithamBackground: despite rapid population ageing, few studies have investigated frailty in older people in sub-Saharan Africa. We tested a cumulative deficit frailty index in a population of older people from rural South Africa. Methods: analysis of cross-sectional data from the Health and Ageing in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI) study. We used self-reported diagnoses, symptoms, activities of daily living, objective physiological indices and blood tests to calculate a 32-variable cumulative deficit frailty index. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between frailty category and all-cause mortality. We tested the discriminant ability of the frailty index to predict one-year mortality alone and in addition to age and sex. Results: in total 3,989 participants were included in the analysis, mean age 61 years (standard deviation 13); 2,175 (54.5%) were women. The median frailty index was 0.13 (interquartile range 0.09–0.19); Using population-specific cutoffs, 557 (14.0%) had moderate frailty and 263 (6.6%) had severe frailty. All-cause mortality risk was related to frailty severity independent of age and sex (hazard ratio per 0.01 increase in frailty index: 1.06 [95% confidence interval 1.04–1.07]). The frailty index alone showed moderate discrimination for one-year mortality: c-statistic 0.68–0.76; combining the frailty index with age and sex improved performance (c-statistic 0.77–0.81). Conclusion: frailty measured by cumulative deficits is common and predicts mortality in a rural population of older South Africans. The number of measures needed may limit utility in resource-poor settings.Item Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for People Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic(2020-08-11) Travis P. Baggett; Justine A. Scott; Mylinh H. Le; Fatma M. Shebl; Christopher Panella; Elena Losina; Clare Flanagan; Jessie M. Gaeta; Anne Neilan; Emily P. Hyle; Amir Mohareb; Krishna P. Reddy; Mark J. Siedner; Guy Harling; Milton C. Weinstein; Andrea Ciaranello; Pooyan Kazemian; Kenneth A. FreedbergImportance: Approximately 356,000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the US. They are at high risk for COVID-19. Objective: To assess clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 management among sheltered homeless adults. Design: We developed a dynamic microsimulation model of COVID-19 in sheltered homeless adults in Boston, Massachusetts. We used cohort characteristics and costs from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were from published literature and national databases. We examined surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re] 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9). Costs were from a health care sector perspective; time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020. Setting & Participants: Simulated cohort of 2,258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston. Interventions: We assessed daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of screen-positives, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternate care sites [ACSs] for mild/moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing, each compared to no intervention. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case prevented of COVID-19. Results: We simulated a population of 2,258 sheltered homeless adults with mean age of 42.6 years. Compared to no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild/moderate disease led to 37% fewer infections and 46% lower costs (Re=2.6), 75% fewer infections and 72% lower costs (Re=1.3), and 51% fewer infections and 51% lower costs (Re=0.9). Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks further decreased infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1,000 (Re=2.6), $27,000 (Re=1.3), and $71,000 (Re=0.9). Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more costly than other options. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission. Conclusions & Relevance: In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer COVID-19 infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in COVID-19 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.Item Mortality in children aged <5 years with severe acute respiratory illness in a high HIVprevalence urban and rural areas of South Africa, 2009–2013(2021-08-12) Oluwatosin A Ayeni; Sibongile Walaza; Stefano Tempia; Michelle Groome; Kathleen Kahn; Shabir A Madhi; Adam L Cohen; Jocelyn Moyes; Marietjie Venter; Marthi Pretorius; Florette Treurnicht; Orienka Hellferscee; Anne von Gottberg; Nicole Wolter; Cheryl CohenBackground: Severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) is an important cause of mortality in young children, especially in children living with HIV infection. Disparities in SARI death in children aged <5 years exist in urban and rural areas. Objective: To compare the factors associated with in-hospital death among children aged <5 years hospitalized with SARI in an urban vs. a rural setting in South Africa from 2009-2013. Methods: Data were collected from hospitalized children with SARI in one urban and two rural sentinel surveillance hospitals. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA using polymerase chain reaction. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital death. Results: From 2009 through 2013, 5,297 children aged <5 years with SARI-associated hospital admission were enrolled; 3,811 (72%) in the urban and 1,486 (28%) in the rural hospitals. In-hospital case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in the rural hospitals (6.9%) than the urban hospital (1.3%, p<0.001), and among HIV-infected than the HIV-uninfected children (9.6% vs. 1.6%, p<0.001). In the urban hospital, HIV infection (odds ratio (OR):11.4, 95% confidence interval (CI):5.4-24.1) and presence of any other underlying illness (OR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.0-9.2) were the only factors independently associated with death. In the rural hospitals, HIV infection (OR: 4.1, 95% CI: 2.3-7.1) and age <1 year (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.9-7.2) were independently associated with death, whereas duration of hospitalization ≥5 days (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8) and any respiratory virus detection (OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8) were negatively associated with death. Conclusion: We found that the case-fatality proportion was substantially higher among children admitted to rural hospitals and HIV infected children with SARI in South Africa. While efforts to prevent and treat HIV infections in children may reduce SARI deaths, further efforts to address health care inequality in rural populations are needed.Item Effect of a storytelling intervention on the retention of serodiscordant couples in ART/PrEP services at antenatal clinic in Namacurra province in Zambézia, Mozambique(2021-06) Carolyn M Audet; Erin Graves; Almiro M Emílio; Ariano Matino; Paula Paulo; Arifo M Aboobacar; Carlota L Fonseca; Sara Van Rompaey; Caroline De SchachtBackground: Sub-Saharan Africa reported 550,000 new HIV infections among women in 2018. Pregnancy and the postpartum period are associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition (adjusted risk ratio [RR]: 2.8 during pregnancy and 4.0 in postpartum period vs. non-pregnant or postpartum women, respectively). Acquisition of HIV during pregnancy and breastfeeding increases risk of mother to child transmission. We propose to test the impact of a peer-delivered oral storytelling intervention to increase retention in, and adherence to, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)/combination antiretroviral treatment (ART) among expectant couples. Design: We propose a randomized controlled trial (RCT) (35 intervention and 35 control couples) at a health facility where 11% of expectant couples were in serodiscordant relationships in 2018. Couples randomized to the storytelling arm will be visited by a two community volunteers and who successfully adhered to PrEP/ART during a recent pregnancy. This expert couple will orate to participating couples three stories (at 1, 3 and 5 weeks after study enrollment) designed to empower, educate, and establish "ideal" interpersonal communication strategies within couples/families, and support adherence practices among participants. The primary outcome among HIV-uninfected women will be adherence to PrEP at 3 months. Conclusions: PrEP among at-risk pregnant women must be implemented so that high levels of adherence and retention are achievable for them and their partners. We will test our storytelling intervention to identify an optimal strategy for PrEP education and family engagement in a region with high HIV prevalence. Our results will have an impact by effectively engaging serodiscordant couples in prevention/treatment during pregnancy and beyond.Item Throwing the bones to diagnose HIV: Views of rural South African traditional healers on undertaking HIV counselling and testing(2022-10-10) Carolyn M. Audet; Elise M. Clemens; Sizzy Ngobeni; Mevian Mkansi; Daniel E. Sack; Ryan G. WagnerIn 2018, nearly 800,000 HIV positive individuals in South Africa were unaware of their status. Traditional healers see patients who avoid health clinics, including those who refuse HIV testing. This manuscript details the results of a qualitative study to understand traditional healer perspectives on performing healer-initiated HIV counseling and testing HIV in rural South Africa. We conducted 30 structured in-depth, in-person interviews between April and June 2019 to elicit traditional healer attitudes towards partnering with local health services to perform HIV counseling and testing with their patients. Healers reported that while some patients are open about their HIV status, others lie about it due to stigma around the disease. This creates challenges with concurrent treatment, which healers believe leads to allopathic and/or traditional medication treatment failure. Most healers expressed both an interest and a willingness to perform HIV counseling and testing. Healers felt that by performing testing in the community, it would overcome issues related to HIV stigma, as well as a lack of confidentiality and trust with health care workers at the clinic. Trained traditional healers may be able to bridge the testing gap between “non-testers” and the allopathic health system, essentially “opening” thousands of new testing locations with little financial investment.