Research Outputs (Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies)
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Item Climate change threats to two low-lying South African coastal towns: Risks and perceptions.(Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2016-05) Fitchett, J.M.; Grant, B.; Hoogendoom, G.Climate change poses a considerable threat to low-lying coastal towns. Possible risks include flooding induced by sea-level rise, increased discomfort from changes in temperature and precipitation, more frequent extreme events, biodiversity shifts, and water shortages. For coastal towns that attract many tourists, these threats can have far-reaching economic effects and may compromise the continued viability of the tourism sector. A growing number of studies are being published on the inter-relationship between climate change and tourism in the global North. As yet, little equivalent research has been conducted in developing countries with economically significant tourism sectors. This paper presents a mixed-method pilot study on two adjacent coastal towns, St Francis Bay and Cape St Francis, in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. We explored the climate change threats in this region, and perceptions of these threats within the tourism sector. The tourism climate index results showed that the towns are climatically well suited to tourism, but a decrease in these index scores between 1978 and 2014 suggests that climate change experienced in recent decades has detrimentally affected tourist comfort. A digital elevation model sea-level projection for the towns indicated a high risk of sea-level induced flooding by 2050, particularly for properties along the coastline. Interviews with tourism establishment respondents showed that people are aware of climate change threats, yet little adaptation is forthcoming. Rather the government is deemed responsible for adaptation, despite its limited capacity. A disjuncture therefore exists between the perceived severity of risk and the risk that is evident from scientific analyses. This gap results in poor planning for the costs associated with adaptation.Item A multi-disciplinary review of late Quaternary palaeoclimates and environments for Lesotho(2016-07) Fitchett, J.M.; Grab, S.W; Bamford, M.K.; Mackay, A.W.Lesotho provides a unique context for palaeoclimatic research. The small country is entirely landlocked by South Africa, yet has considerable variation in topography, climate, and associated vegetation over an approximate east–west transect. The region has been of archaeological interest for over a century, and hosts many Early to Late Stone Age sites with occupation preceding 80 000 years before present. The eastern Lesotho highlands are of interest to periglacial and glacial geomorphologists because of their well-preserved relict landforms and contentious evidence for permafrost and niche glaciation during the late Quaternary. However, continuous proxy records for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions for Lesotho are scarce and hampered by a range of methodological shortfalls. These challenges include uncertain ages, poor sampling resolution, and proxies extracted from archaeological excavations for which there may be bias in selection. Inferences on palaeoclimates are thus based predominantly on archaeological and palaeogeomorphological evidence for discrete periods during the late Quaternary. This review paper presents a more detailed multidisciplinary synthesis of late Quaternary conditions in Lesotho. We simultaneously considered the varying data that contribute to the under-studied palaeoenvironmental record for southern Africa. The collective palaeoenvironmental data for eastern Lesotho were shown to be relatively contradictory, with considerable variations in contemporaneous palaeoclimatic conditions within the study area. We argue that although methodological challenges may contribute to this variation, the marked changes in topography result in contrasting late Quaternary palaeoenvironments. Such environments are characterised by similar contrasting microclimates and niche ecologies as are witnessed in the contemporary landscape. These spatial variations within a relatively small landlocked country are of importance in understanding broader southern African palaeoenvironmental change.Item Disjunct perceptions? Climate change threats in two-low lying South African coastal towns.(Nicolaus Copernicus University Press, 2016-03) Hoogendoorn, G.; Grant, B.; Fitchett, J.M.Coastal towns rely heavily on the quality and expanse of their beaches to attract tourists. Climate is an important tourism determinant, controlling the length and timing of peak arrivals. South African tourism is particularly reliant on these factors. Perceptions of tourists and tourist accommodation establishment regarding climate change threats to tourism are explored for the towns of St Francis Bay and Cape St Francis. Tourism accommodation establishments were predominantly concerned with day-to-day changes in weather, investing in small-scale infrastructural changes to improve the comfort of their guests. By contrast, tourists demonstrated greater concern for the risk of flooding, sea-level rise and the degeneration of the beaches. This reflects concerning disjunctures between perceptions of tourists and accommodation establishments regarding climate change threats. This may portray to tourists insufficient investment in adaptation at accommodation establishments, resulting in decreased tourist visitations in the short-term in favour of destinations perceived as better prepared.