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Item The relations between dividend policy and stock returns in the Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange, Tanzania(2015) Sylvester, Deodatus MkobaDividend policy establishes the distribution of a company’s profit whether they could pay out to the stockholders as dividends or retain the profit for re-investments in the company. There are several theories which explain the dividend behaviour, and the empirical studies suggest evidence for one over the other, however the belief concerning corporate dividend theories are different. There are two conflicting theories; those who believe in dividend relevance theory (Lintner & Gordon) and those who believe in dividend irrelevance theory (Miller & Modigliani). The key part of the study is related to the evaluation of which theory is suited for dividend policy of companies in Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE). So far numerous researchers have make an effort to solve the dividend puzzle. The main aim of this study was to establish whether there is a relationship between dividend policy and stock return of companies listed in Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. In particular, the study focuses on three main aspects, namely; investigating the association between stock returns and dividend yield, stock price reaction to dividend announcements and identifying the factors influencing dividend policy decisions. The empirical findings confirmed that dividend yield has a strong impact on stock returns and it is statistically significant. The finding of this study supported the dividend relevance theory. The event study found that dividend announcements have an impact on share prices and the significance of the abnormal around event date confirms that the DSE market supports dividend relevance and signaling theory. Finally, the study concluded that debt ratio and age of the firms have a strong influence on the dividend policy on firms on the DSE.Item A comparative analysis of dollarization in Tanzania and Argentina(2014-01-14) Agwambo, Neema JohnThis study examined the portfolio theory of dollarization of Ize and Yeyati (2003) to see if it holds in Argentina and Tanzania, this study was conducted to see if the variables of the exchange rate volatility and inflation rate fluctuation contribute to dollarization. Moreover, it shows that there is a relationship between the level of dollarization on nominal interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate as the portfolio theory predict. The Chow test (Chow (1960) was used to test for the equality of coefficients in Argentina and Tanzania as separate samples. The results indicated that the correlation analysis and regression analysis in both countries there is disagreement over the assumptions and showed that exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rates do not have a significant effect on the level of dollarization. This means that the theory of portfolio do not hold for the case of Tanzania and Argentina and it is suggested that because the nature of the relationship is not linear, a new research design can be developed or it simply means that the portfolio theory is incorrect. We recommend that further research be pursued using the same variables as in this study but using different forms, such as using real as opposed to using nominal values, using non-linear forms instead of using a linear estimation method. Or the search for the significant explanatory variable of dollarization and the variables could only be included in a process that calls for the formulation of new theory to replace the current theory. The new variables to be included are government quality, monetary policy agility, individual heterogeneity, domestic debt, default risk, institutional quality and financial integration.Item Institutional dynamics and impact on capital formation: evidence from Namibia and Tanzania(2013-03-15) Zaaruka, Benethelin P.The purpose of this thesis is to examine the impact of institutions on fixed capital accumulation over time in two developing countries, both former German colonies: Namibia and Tanzania. This is motivated by two recent underpinning theories: the new institutional theory, which views institutions as fundamental determinants of economic outcomes and income variations among countries (the institutional hypothesis); and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty, which emphasis the impact of uncertainty on investment and capital-stock accumulation. The first part of the thesis deals with the measurement and definitions of institutions. Empirical measures of political and economic institutions have been previously produced; however, most cover short periods of time. The short time span of the institutional indices makes them practical in cross-countries and panel studies, rather than in country-specific studies. The importance of country-specific studies is underscored by the notion that different historical paths led to different ways of organising economic activities and political structures, yielding the differences in economic development across countries. To overcome this challenge, this thesis presents a database on institutional measures for Namibia and Tanzania for the period 1884 to 2009. These indicators are used to assess the nature of political and economic institutional transformation from the colonial legacy to the modern outcome, using Namibia and Tanzania as a natural experiment. Relying on archival information on formal laws in Namibia and Tanzania, the thesis constructs institutional indicators that are de jure in nature representing political freedom, property rights and judicial independence. These allow for the assessment of rules the game, rather than outcome. The formal codification of rights and freedoms is of little significance if those rights cannot be enforced. Therefore, the de facto element is also considered through the construction of separate indicators on political instability and judicial independence. A clear theoretical framework on each indicator provides the selection and combination of each sub-component. A meaningful composite measure is based on the techniques of principal components and factor analysis. v The thesis argues that despite changes in colonial identity in these countries (i.e. German, then British or South African), the broader framework of institutions remained partly the same, particularly in the case Namibia. It is true that, with the attainment of independence in Namibia, many institutions did change, particularly in the areas of political freedom, and judicial and political instability. Measures such as property rights, on the other hand, are slow to change. However, the overall long-lasting effect of these colonial institutions on economic outcomes remains an empirical question. Similarly, the case of Tanzania reflects the notion of institutional persistence as the country continued to undermine political freedom even after the attainment of independence. Tanzania is among the few countries which adopted a constitution without a bill of rights at independence. Also, the new indicators for both countries, while covering a long time period (1884–2009), correlate fairly well with some of the widely used institutional indices produced by Freedom House and the Heritage Foundation. The second part of thesis establishes the impact of institutional variables on capital accumulation in Namibia and Tanzania, applying the Johansen Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique. The data span for Namibia is from 1923 to 2009, and that for Tanzania is from 1946 to 2009. The findings highlight the importance of uncertainty (political instability) in explaining capital accumulation over time in Namibia. The results also show that other institutional variables are important in explaining uncertainty. Rising levels of property rights and political rights lower political instability in Namibia. The empirical evidence for Tanzania indicates the importance of property rights in explaining capital accumulation over time. The most interesting result is the importance accorded to the judicial independence, which showed a positive correlation to gross domestic product (GDP). It is also shown that other institutional variables (property rights and political rights) have a positive correlation to judicial independence. A further finding is that uncertainty (political instability) has a negative effect on economic development over time in Tanzania.Item The role of birth order in infant mortality in Ifkara DSS area in rural Tanzania(2010-10-26) Sangber-Dery, Matthew DeryIntroduction: Studies of factors affecting infant mortality have rarely considered the role of birth order. Despite the recent gains in child mortality in Tanzania, infant mortality rate is still high (68 per 1000 live births) according to the Tanzania Demographic Health Survey (2004-5). This study investigated the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems area in rural Tanzania from January 2005 to December 2007 with specific reference to birth order, and identified causes of infant death for the study period. Materials and Methods: The study was a secondary analysis of existing data from the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS). Child data for 8916 live births born from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2007 were extracted for analysis. The binary outcome variable was infant mortality. Tables and graphs were used to describe the distribution of maternal demographic and study population characteristics. Poisson regression analyses were used to establish the association between infant mortality and exposure variables. Results: We recorded 562 infant deaths. Neonatal mortality rate was 38 per 1000 person-years while infant mortality rate was 70 per 1000 person-years. Birth order of 2nd to 5th was associated significantly with 22% reduced risk of infant mortality (IRR=0.78, 95%CI: 0.64, 0.96; p=0.02) compared with first births. The infant mortality rates per 1000 person-years for first births was 84, 2nd to 5th was 66 and sixth and higher was 71 per 1000 person-years. Male infants were 17% more at risk of infant deaths as compared to their female counterparts, but not statistically significant (IRR=1.17, 95%CI: 0.99, 1.38; p=0.06). Mothers aged 20 to 34 years had 19% reduced risk of infant death (IRR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.65, 1.00; p=0.05) as compared v to mother of less than 20 years of age. Singleton births had 71% reduced risk of infant mortality (IRR=0.29, 95%CI: 0.22, 0.37; p<0.001) compared with twin births. Mothers who did not attend antenatal care had 2% reduced risk of infant deaths (IRR=0.98, 95%CI: 0.49, 1.97) but not statistically significant compared with mothers who attended antenatal care. Mothers who delivered at home were 1.05 times more at risk of infant deaths but not statistically significant (IRR=1.05, 95%CI: 0.89, 1.24; p=0.56). Mothers who had no formal education were 1.41 times more likely to have infant deaths (IRR=1.41, 95%CI: 0.72, 2.79; p=0.32) as compared to those who had education beyond primary. When adjusted for sex, maternal age and twin births, second to fifth birth order had 20% reduced risk of infant death (IRR=0.80, 95%CI: 0.61, 1.03; p=0.08), but statistically not significant as compared to first births. Malaria (30%), Birth injury/asphyxia (16%), Pneumonia (10%), Premature and/or low birth weight (8%), Anaemia (3%) and Diarrhoeal diseases (2%) were the major causes of infant deaths from 2005 to 2007. Discussion and conclusion: First births and higher birth orders were associated with higher infant mortality. Twin birth was a risk factor for infant mortality. The health systems should be strengthened in providing care for mothers and child survival. We recommend that the high-risk group, first or sixth or higher pregnancies, need special care and the existing health management system may be strengthened to create awareness among potential mothers for seeking appropriate health care from the beginning of pregnancy. Also, antenatal care follow-up can be emphasized for high-risk mothers. Efforts to control mosquitoes must be accelerated in the Ifakara sub-district.Item Assessment of risk factors associated with maternal mortality in rural Tanzania(2010-10-14) Illah, Evance OumaBackground Complications of childbirth and pregnancy are leading causes of death among women of reproductive age. Worldwide, developing countries account for ninety-nine percent of maternal deaths. The United Nations’ fifth millennium development goal (MDG-5) is to reduce maternal mortality ratio by three fourths by 2015. Aim The aim of this study is to explore the levels, trends, causes and risk factors associated with maternal mortality as put forward by World Health Organization (WHO) in rural settings of Tanzania. Specific objectives To establish the trend of maternal mortality ratios in Rufiji health and demographic surveillance system (RHDSS) during the period 2002-2006. To determine the main causes of maternal deaths in RHDSS during the period 2002-2006. To determine the risk factors associated with maternal mortality RHDSS during the period 2002-2006. Method Secondary data analysis based on the longitudinal database from Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System was used to study the risk factors and causes of maternal death. Data for a period of 5 years between 2002-2006 was used. A total of 26 427 women v aged 15-49 years were included in the study; 64 died and there were 15 548 live births. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the risk factors associated with maternal deaths. Results Maternal mortality ratio was 412 per 100 000 live births. The main causes of death were haemorrhage (28%), eclampsia (19%) and puerperal sepsis (8%). Maternal age and marital status were associated with maternal mortality. An increased risk of 154% for maternal death was found for women aged 30-39 versus 15-19 years (HR=2.54, 95% CI=1.001- 6.445). Married women had a protective effect of 62% over unmarried ones (HR=0.38, 95% CI=0.176-0.839). These findings were statistically significant at the 5% level. Conclusion This analysis reinforced previous findings pointing to the fact that haemorrhage and eclampsia are the leading causes of maternal mortality in Tanzania and other developing countries. This indicates the need for better antenatal and obstetric care, particularly for women over thirty years of age, as well as implementing health care delivery strategies according to the regional specific risk factors of maternal deaths and not the global factors.Item Risk factors and trends in injury mortality in Rufiji Demographic Surveillance System, rural Tanzania from 2002 to 2007(2010-09-28) Ae-Ngibise, Kenneth AyuurebobiBackground Worldwide, injuries are ranked among the leading causes of death and disability, killing over 5 million people and injuring over 50 million others globally. Approximately 90% of these deaths occur in developing countries. The burden and pattern of injuries in low-income countries are poorly known and not well studied. Few studies have been conducted on injury mortality and therefore this study can add to the scientific literature. Analyzing injury mortality in rural Tanzania can assist African countries to develop intervention programmes and policy reform to reduce the burden caused by injuries. Objectives The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors and trend in injury mortality in the Rufiji Demographic Surveillance Area in rural Tanzania from 2002-2007. Specifically, the study would identify and describe the types and trends in injury mortality, calculate the crude death rates of injury mortality by gender, SES and age groups, describe the risks factors associated with injury mortality, and measure association between the risk factors and injury mortality. Methods Rufiji HDSS data used included people aged 1 year and older from 2002-2007. Verbal Autopsy data was used to determine the causes of death which was based on the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 10) recommended by WHO. Injury Crude death rates (ICDR) were calculated by dividing number of deaths in each year by person years observed and multiplying by 100,000. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to construct household wealth index using household characteristics and assets ownership. Also trend test analysis was done to assess a linear relationship in the injury mortality rates across the six year period. Poisson regression was used to investigate v association between risk factors and injury mortality and all tests for significant associations were based on p-values at 5% significance level and a 95% confidence interval. Results The overall injury crude mortality rate was 33.4 per 100,000 PYO. Injuries contributed 4% of total mortality burden with statistical significant association between gender, age and occupation. Mortality rate was higher for males [Adjusted IRR=3.04, P=0.001, 95% CI (2.22 - 4.17)]. The elderly (65+) were 2.8 times more likely to die from injuries compared to children [Adjusted IRR=2.83, P=0.048, 95% CI (1.01 - 7.93)]. The unemployed, casual workers, the retired, and farmers all had an increased risk of dying from injuries compared to students (P<0.005). Most injury deaths were due to road traffic accidents (28%), unspecified external injuries (20%), drowning (16%), burns (9%), accidental poisoning (8%), homicidal (8%) and animal attack (5%). Conclusion The contribution of injury to mortality burden in the Rufiji Demographic Surveillance Area was relatively low. However, there is the need to institute measures that would help prevent injuries. Life saving interventions such as road safety education, regular road maintenance, rapid response to accidents, use of life jackets for fishermen and recreational swimmers are very necessary in preventing injuries. Also, proper fishing practices should be imparted to the populace as precautionary measures to reduce the burden of injury mortality.Item The effect of distance to formal health facility on chilhood mortality: case of Ifakara DSS in rural Tanzania(2010-04-14T07:31:02Z) Kadobera, DanielBackground: MDG 4 commits the international community to reducing mortality in children younger than 5 years by two-thirds by 2015.The biggest burden of child mortality lies in Saharan Africa. Objective: To investigate how distance from home to the nearest health facility is associated with infant and child (1-4 years) mortality in a typical rural setting of sub Saharan Africa. Methods: A secondary analysis of 28,823 under five children in Ifakara Health and Demographic surveillance system between 2005 and 2007 was carried out. Both Euclidean and networked distance from the household to the nearest health facility was estimated using geographical information system methods. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the effect of distance from home to the nearest health facility on infant and child mortality. Results: Children who lived in homes with networked distance >5KM experienced about 18% increased mortality risk [HR=1.18;95%CI 1.02-1.38 p-value 0.05] compared to those who lived less than 5KM networked distance to the nearest health facility. Death of mother, death of preceding sibling and multiple births were the strongest independent predictors of child mortality. Malaria/AFI and pneumonia/ARI were the leading causes of death in children although there was no evidence to show association of cause specific mortality with networked distance in the study. vi Conclusions: Staying closer to the health facility improved the survival probability of the children. This effect was similar to that reported elsewhere in other studies which re-emphasize the usefulness of having fully functional health facilities closer to the populations that need them. The inconsistency of the Euclidean distance in the study further suggests that the networked distance is a better estimator of geographical accessibility and should be the preferred proxy distance measurement option in public health research. 1 Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand; South Africa. 2 Ifakara Health & Demographic Surveillance System; Tanzania. 3 Iganga/Mayuge Health & Demographic Surveillance System; UgandaItem Landscapes sublime: imperialism, the wilderness ideal and the history of conservation in Tanzania(2009-09-18T10:52:15Z) Butler, Marie-JeanAbstract “LANDSCAPES SUBLIME: IMPERIALISM, THE WILDERNESS IDEAL AND THE HISTORY OF CONSERVATION IN TANZANIA" The aim of this dissertation is to trace the implications that Western views of nature have had for the restructuring of African landscapes through the creation of game reserves and national parks, with a particular focus on Tanzania. I contend that wilderness spaces are the main repositories of a western imaginary that longs for those places where nature is prodigious and untamed, uncontaminated by development and devoid of people. The idealization of landscapes is derived from the aesthetic of the Romantic sublime with its dual impulse: the quest for escape from a fragmenting and morally corrupting capitalist society, and the search for the immutable and the transcendent in landscape 'untouched' by development. In Africa the physical manifestation of the wilderness landscape ideal came to be reflected in real space – the space of the East African national park. To produce a wild landscape in which animals roam free required the reproduction of a certain ideology of nature which may have been inaugurated during the colonial period, but which has been assimilated and even expanded by post-colonial regimes like Tanzania. Why is it, I ask, that the wilderness landscape ideal is so remarkably persistent in the post-colonial, post-socialist Tanzania of today? Taking the approach of scholars like Mitchell, I ask not just what landscape ‘is or ‘means’ but what it does in this context.Item Does place of delivery affect neonatal mortality in Rufiji Tanzania?(2009-04-29T13:33:26Z) Ajaari, JusticeIntroduction The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) calls for a reduction in newborn mortality but newborn mortality is one of the world’s most neglected health problems. While there has been significant progress in reducing deaths among children under age five over the past decade, the proportion of under five mortality that occur in the neonatal period, an estimated 38% in 2000, is increasing. Therefore the Millennium Development Goal for child survival cannot be met without substantial reductions in neonatal mortality. It is therefore extremely important to make available the much needed epidemiological information regarding the time, place and causes of neonatal deaths which will enable greater attention to policies aimed at reducing levels of mortality and programme planning. Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between neonatal mortality and place of delivery in Rufiji in rural Tanzania. The specific objectives were: 1.to measure and compare the neonatal mortality rates among neonates born in and outside health facilities, 2. to compare the maternal characteristics of those who deliver in and outside health facilities, 3. to compare cause-specific neonatal mortality among neonates born in and outside health facilities and 4.to measure the association between place of delivery and neonatal mortality. Methods Data from the Rufiji Demographic Surveillance System (RDSS), Tanzania, was used for the analysis. A total of 5124 live births and 166 neonatal deaths were recorded from 1st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2006. Place of delivery and place of death were categorized as either health facility or outside health facility. Neonatal mortality rates were calculated by dividing the number of neonatal deaths to the total number of live births and multiplied by 1000. Data on causes of death were collected using verbal autopsies. Cause specific mortality was determined by using physician coding according to a list of causes of death based on the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases. Household characteristics and assets ownership of the mothers of the neonates were used to construct a wealth index as proposed by Filmer and Pritchett in 20011. The index was calculated using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in Stata version 10 software. A chi-square (x2) test at 5% significant level was also used to compare the maternal characteristics by place of delivery and neonatal characteristics and place of delivery. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also used to assess the association between neonatal mortality and place of delivery as well as between neonatal mortality and maternal risk factors, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results The highest number of neonatal deaths occurred during the first week of life 111(67%), the remainder occurred from the second week to the fourth weeks of life 55(33%). The overall neonatal mortality rate was 32/1000 live births. Neonatal mortality rate was higher in children born outside heath facilities 43/1000 live births compared with those born in health facilities 27/1000 live births. The two major causes of deaths in both health facility deliveries and outside health facility deliveries were birth injury or asphyxia n=29 (26%) and prematurity/low birth weight n=25 (22%). Mothers who delivered out-side a health facility were 1.6 times more likely to have experienced neonatal death [unadjusted OR=1.6, p-value = 0.002, 95% CI 1.2, 2.2] compared to mothers who delivered in health facility and this was statistically significant. After adjusting for maternal risk factors, mothers who delivered outside a health facility were 1.7 times more likely to have experienced neonatal death [adjusted OR=1.7, p-value = 0.002, 95% CI 1.2, 2.4] compared to mothers who delivered in a health facility and this was statistically significant. Maternal household socio-economic status and parity were the only other factors that were found to be statistically significantly associated with neonatal mortality in the multivariate analysis. For instance, least poor mothers were found to be 40% less likely to have experienced neonatal death [adjusted OR = 0.6, pvalue = 0.046, 95% CI 0.4, 1.1] compared to the poorest mothers and this was statistically significant. Less poor mothers were also found to be 50% less likely to experience neonatal mortality [adjusted OR =0.5, p-value = 0.002, 95% CI 0.3, 0.8] compared to the poorest mothers. Mothers who had parity of three to four (3-4) were found to be 40% less likely to have experienced neonatal death compared to mothers who had parity of one to two (1-2). Mothers who had parity of five (5) and above were also found to be 50% less likely to have experienced neonatal death compared to those who had parity of one to two (1-2). Conclusion Place of delivery has a very important role in neonatal survival in this rural setting. In order to reduce neonatal mortality, pregnant women should be encouraged and supported to give birth to their newborns in a health facility while discouraging deliveries that occurred outside health facility. Infrastructure, such as emergency transport, to facilitate health facility deliveries requires attention.Item Assessment of predictors of use of antimalaria drugs for treatment of malaria/fever in the Kilombero and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania(2008-10-13T12:47:03Z) Tindanbil, DanielBackground The World Health Organisation currently recommends the use of artemisinin-based combination drugs for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in high malaria endemic regions. However, comprehensive understanding of factors affecting treatment of malaria with antimalarials is lacking in many rural communities in Africa. This study seeks to test the following hypothesise: 1. That socio-economic and demographic factors at the household level affect treatment of self reported malaria/fever with antimalarials in the Kilombero/Ulanga and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania 2. Distance of a household to a health facility affects treatment of malaria/fever with antimalarials in the Kilombero/Ulanga and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania. Methods: Secondary data analysis of a cross- sectional household survey on antimalarials carried out in 2005 in the Kilombero/Ulanga and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania. Georeferenced health facilities and households’ datasets from the Rufiji and Ifakara demographic surveillance systems sites were also used to estimate distance variables. Results: Out of a total of 1433 participants who reported malaria/fever, 32% (95% CI: 29.29, 34.89) obtained treatment with antimalarials. Among them, 36% obtained treatment with Sulfadoxine Pyreminthamine (SP) as a monotherapy and 44% treated malaria/fever with SP and Artesunate as a combination therapy.8% used quinine while 11 % used Amodiaquine and Artesunate. The remaining 1% used chloroquine. After adjusting for all confounding variables in a multivariate survey logistic regression model, age group, education level of the household head and district of residence were found, with statistical evidence, to be associated with treatment of reported malaria/fever with antimalarials. Background The World Health Organisation currently recommends the use of artemisinin-based combination drugs for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in high malaria endemic regions. However, comprehensive understanding of factors affecting treatment of malaria with antimalarials is lacking in many rural communities in Africa. This study seeks to test the following hypothesise: 1. That socio-economic and demographic factors at the household level affect treatment of self reported malaria/fever with antimalarials in the Kilombero/Ulanga and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania 2. Distance of a household to a health facility affects treatment of malaria/fever with antimalarials in the Kilombero/Ulanga and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania. Methods: Secondary data analysis of a cross- sectional household survey on antimalarials carried out in 2005 in the Kilombero/Ulanga and Rufiji valleys in Tanzania. Georeferenced health facilities and households’ datasets from the Rufiji and Ifakara demographic surveillance systems sites were also used to estimate distance variables. Results: Out of a total of 1433 participants who reported malaria/fever, 32% (95% CI: 29.29, 34.89) obtained treatment with antimalarials. Among them, 36% obtained treatment with Sulfadoxine Pyreminthamine (SP) as a monotherapy and 44% treated malaria/fever with SP and Artesunate as a combination therapy.8% used quinine while 11 % used Amodiaquine and Artesunate. The remaining 1% used chloroquine. After adjusting for all confounding variables in a multivariate survey logistic regression model, age group, education level of the household head and district of residence were found, with statistical evidence, to be associated with treatment of reported malaria/fever with antimalarials. Conclusion: The results suggest that participant’s age, education level of household head and location of district are important predictors of treatment of malaria with antimalarials in rural Tanzania. The implementation of any antimalarials policy in Tanzania would therefore, require a careful consideration of these factors.