Faculty of Science (ETDs)

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Assessing livelihood vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change among farming households in Plateau State, north-central Nigeria
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Hassan, Buhari; Knight, Jasper
It has been projected that sub-Saharan Africa would be severely affected by climate change in form of persistent and increasing climate variability. Nigeria’s situation as a developing country coupled with the fact that agricultural activities are primarily rainfed, provides a suitable case study in which to assess the vulnerability of farming households to climate variability and change. Lack of data on the nature and extent of vulnerability to climate variability (particularly annual changes in rainfall and temperature patterns) on food production systems and livelihoods in Nigeria hinders the development of effective policies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and variability. The study aims to improve understanding of the socio-economic, institutional, biological and physical factors that contribute to vulnerability of farming households to climate change and variability in Nigeria. By combining descriptive, participatory and statistical analysis as well as field observations, this research develops a holistic approach to assess the level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of farming households. Multistage sampling was used to purposely select communities in Bokkos Local Government Area, Plateau State, for the study, while farming households were randomly selected for the household questionnaire survey within four communities. Purposive sampling was used to identify key informants for interviews. Observation and taking photographs of farmers’ activities were used to complement the other data collection methods. Qualitative data was analysed using descriptive and content analysis, while the quantitative data was analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) (v 27) and Microsoft Excel (v2020). The level of vulnerability of farming households was determined using the Sustainable Livelihood Approach. Results show that farmers are exposed to climate variability in form of changing rainfall patterns which includes late onset of rains, dry spells, and early cessation of rains and crop loss due to pests and disease infestation. Results show that the vulnerability of farming households can be linked to access to household livelihood capital assets and that households are characterised by low levels of financial, social and physical capital. Smallholder farming households adopt a range of on-farm and off-farm adaptation strategies including changing planting time, crop diversification, engaging in irrigation farming, intensifying the use of fertilizers, manure and agro-chemicals to boost crop yield, and planting of disease-resistant and drought-tolerant crop varieties. Farming households experience a number of challenges which include a lack of financial resources which has a strong influence on enhancing other capital assets such as physical and natural capitals; poor access to mechanised agricultural equipment, lack of training on how to deal with climate change and variability, limited access to improved crop varieties as well as a lack of institutional support, which constitute serious barriers to adaptation to climate variability. In applying these results to climate change adaptation it is recommended that policymakers need to institute specific and implementable climate change adaptation policies that will enable farmers to utilize their capital assets on effective adaptation measures and also engage in viable alternative livelihood diversification strategies, enhance agricultural productivity and resilience and improve institutional support including access to information and training
Carbon nitride-based catalysts for thermal carbon monoxide oxidation: Does phase matter?
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-06) Mohamed, Ahmed Gamal Abdelmoneim; Ozoemena, Kenneth Ikechukwu; Abdullah, Aboubakr M.; Eid, Kamel
Carbon monoxide (CO) has a poisonous effect on all living organisms as it binds to the hemoglobin of blood cells, preventing oxygen uptake. Thus, the conversion of CO to less dangerous gas such as CO2 is an essential process. This work presented the utilization of carbon nitrides (C3Nx) in different phases (βgC3N4, βC3N5, βC3N6) for thermal carbon monoxide (CO) oxidation. Herein, gC3N4, C3N5, and C3N6 were prepared by pyrolysis of their amine precursors, which were doped with Fe by two distinct methods; mechanical mixing (Fe/C3Nx-M) and polymerization (Fe/C3Nx-P). The controlled preparation of Fe/gC3N4-P allowed the formation of hierarchical porous structures with high surface area (219 m2/g) compared to the Fe/gC3N4-M (77 m2/g). This enabled the ease of reactants diffusion, enhanced the electron transfer, and maximized the atomic utilization. Accordingly, Fe/gC3N4-P (T100= 245 °C) presented higher catalytic activity than Fe/gC3N4-M (T100= 291 °C). In addition, bimetallic FeTi/gC3N4-P and trimetallic FeTiCu/gC3N4-P catalysts achieved the complete conversion of carbon monoxide (CO) at lower temperatures; 175 and 147 °C, respectively, which was attributed to the enhanced reducibility, and synergistic effect of Ti and Cu. Besides, FeTi/gC3N4-P and FeTiCu/gC3N4-P showed higher catalytic activity than Pd/C commercial catalyst (T100= 198 °C). In addition, the trimetallic FeTiCu/gC3N4-P showed a stable catalytic behavior without any deactivation for more than ten hours. This study showed that the C3Nx phases worked successfully in the thermal catalytic CO oxidation. However, the gC3N4 phase is the most active one when doped with metal(s), as it offered higher crystallinity, graphitization, and thermal stability than C3N5 and C3N6. This study also paves the way for the utilization of gC3N4 as a support for different metals to be used efficiently in various thermal catalytic applications, not only CO Oxidation.
Characterizing microclimates as potential thermal buffers for reptiles, birds, and mammals in an arid-zone environment
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Warner, Grace M.; Alexander, Graham J.; Fuller, Andrea
Aridification, increases in air temperatures and frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, are predicted to intensify under climate change, suggesting dire consequences for dryland animals. Microhabitats may buffer dryland animals against the changing climate, yet microclimatic data remains scarce from Africa and arid regions. The distribution, abundance, and thermal buffering capacity of five microhabitat types (burrows, nests, rock crevices, tree hollows and vegetation) were investigated across three habitat types (dunes, plains, and mountains) in the Kalahari. The distribution and abundance of microhabitats were assessed via strip transects, while thermal buffering capacity was evaluated by comparing miniature black globe temperatures from 70 representative sheltered microhabitats with 12 localised exposed-site microhabitats. The data generated have provided a baseline measure of the abundance and distribution of microhabitats in the Kalahari and have produced a year-long fine-resolution microclimatic thermal dataset. Microhabitat types and abundance were found to differ per habitat type and across topographic gradients. Abiotic drivers, such as soil type and fire frequency, along with drivers such as biotic community composition, were highlighted as potential causes of these microhabitat distribution patterns. Burrows were the best buffered microhabitat across all tested temporal and spatial gradients, providing an average maximum decrease of -29.5 ˚C during the day, and an average maximum increase of 20.1 ˚C during the night. Well-buffered microhabitats were rare within the field-site, whereas some of the poorest buffering microhabitats (Vegetation) were abundant and widespread. Thus, competition for well-buffered microhabitats may increase under climate change, whilst the risk of traversing large distances between microhabitats may become too great for smaller animals as exposure risk to extreme temperatures increases. Furthermore, birds and large mammals may likely be at a high risk of extreme temperature exposure, as their size and structural adaptations may restrict them from access to well-buffered microhabitats. Therefore, the need for the concurrent assessments of microhabitat distribution, abundance and buffering capacity in future species vulnerability assessments is highlighted, as it is the combination of these factors that are likely to impact population viability under climate change.
Climate change and heritage tourism: threats to Makgabeng in a regional context, Limpopo South Africa
(2020-11) Mcpherson, Fazlin Ahdielah
The Makgabeng area is situated in the north-west corner of the Limpopo province in South Africa. The Makgabeng area is an emerging tourist destination with a variety of activities to offer. The area is rich in ancient rock art sites and, as a result, has great potential for the development of heritage tourism. Extensive research has been conducted on the rock art in this region. However, the impact of climate change on heritage tourism has not yet been explored. The local community of the Makgabeng area is developing a heritage tourism destination within the region and it is important to determine whether the initiative will be sustainable, especially in the context of climate change threats to the region. In a region such as Makgabeng where the primary attraction is natural heritage tourism rather than cultural, this then poses a severe threat to tourism within the region, especially since most of these attractions are outdoors. Hence, this research project is primarily aimed at determining climate change threats to heritage tourism in the Makgabeng region, South Africa. The research has employed a mixed-method approach consisting of interviews done with various stakeholders within the tourism industry and community members in the Makgabeng region. The other methods used are hard-copy and online questionnaires, TripAdvisor reviews, and the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI). What the research has found is that people do not know that Makgabeng exists, and for those who are aware of its existence they have never visited the region. this is because the area is not being marketed effectively. The TCI scores show that winter is the best time of the year for tourism. Consequently, stakeholders and community members should market the area with this in mind. However, tourists have said they enjoy the weather in the region all year round.
Climate Variability and Asset Adaptation of Small-scale Farmers in Zimbabwe's Gokwe South District:A Search for Knowledge Integration Approach
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-05) Chatsiwa, Jaison; Simatele, Mulala Danny
Globally, climate change and variability threaten food production and security for an unforeseeable future leaving millions of people vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition related diseases. Climatic models are projecting that Zimbabwe’s climate will be hanging drastically with a high possibility of experiencing extreme weather patterns impacting the livelihoods of small-scale farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. This study aims to investigate the role of asset portfolios in reducing the climate vulnerability of small-scale farmers of Gokwe South in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe’s agricultural production both crop and livestock production has been negatively impacted due to the dwindling rainfall and increase in temperature and climate related risks and disasters. The quality and quantity of asset portfolios determine the adaptive strategies and their success against the challenges of climate variability. Despite these effects, small-scale farmers in the Gokwe South district are using their asset portfolios to increase their adaptive capacity and resilience to fight against the challenges of climate variability. Therefore, this thesis revealed a paradigm shift from asset vulnerability to pro-poor asset adaptation. The paradigm shift crafted the ‘Theory of Change’ which is useful for climate variability adaptation strategies in the Gokwe South district as the small-scale farmers change from asset vulnerability to asset adaptation. The Theory of Change encourages contextual analysis of the area and theme under study. A Theory of Change is a method that explains how a given intervention, or set of interventions, is expected to lead to specific development change, drawing on a causal analysis based on available evidence. This study used the Participatory Climate Change Adaptation Appraisal (PCCAA) as the primary data collection tool and the Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) known as the emancipatory methodology, to collect data in rural areas. A mixed methodological approach involving qualitative and quantitative was applied. We used thematic content analysis to analyse qualitative data collected during the data collection exercise. During the study period, computer-Aided Qualitative Data Software was used to store data in a sorted manner. The parametric variables were coded using the Predictive Analytic Software. This enabled to performance of statistical analysis and obtaining descriptive statistical outcomes were obtained. The assessment of the effect of the factors on climate adaptation strategies was done through the Likert scale. Indigenous knowledge remained widely used as a source of climate knowledge in the Gokwe South district. The research results showed that indigenous knowledge (IK) is unpredictable, productive assets and adaptive assets are inadequate, technoscience and institutional support are poor support to implement viable adaptation strategies is lacking, and poor distribution and dissemination of climate and weather information to small-scale farmers in the Gokwe South district is poor and asset portfolios and asset mix is poor. The available asset portfolios determine the adaptation strategies used in the Gokwe South district. Results show that climate vulnerability varies spatially and temporally across the Gokwe South district. The studied five constituencies for the Gokwe district have a mean vulnerability index of 3.04 with the highest index being 5 as being well adapted. Sengwa and Mapfungabutsi are highly vulnerable to the vagaries of climate variability in the Gokwe South district. The researchers recommend strong institutional support from the government. The fact that small-scale farmers should integrate their IK and modern science climate knowledge small-scale farmers in the Gokwe South district should adopt proactive or anticipatory adaptation, government climate-smart agricultural policies, and a bottom-up approach to climate variability. The quality and quantity of asset portfolios are key resources affecting the level of vulnerability to climate variability. The asset mix was seen to be significant in reducing the vulnerability of small-scale farmers in Sengwa and Mapfungabutsi, constituencies worst affected due to poor asset endowment of farmers in the Gokwe South district. The results have shown that the financial asset is the most important asset affecting vulnerability because it can be converted into other assets through buying. Weak institutional intervention renders many small-scale farmers helpless to climate variability, and the government is not fully supporting small-scale farmers to increase their adaptive capacity and resilience.
Commercial maize farmers’ adaptations to climate change in Sannieshof, North West Province, South Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Dunn, Benjamin Graham; Knight, Jasper
Commercial agriculture is a critical industry for South Africa, both from an economic and a social perspective. Maize forms a vital part of the diet of millions of people across the country and the continent of Africa. It is also an important commercial export crop. It is, therefore, imperative that the industry can adapt to both climate and socioeconomic changes. This study aims to investigate the specific challenges faced by commercial maize farmers in the Sannieshof region, North West Province, South Africa, in relation to climate change and socioeconomic factors. This study undertook questionnaires with 21 commercial maize farmers in the region, followed up by field observations and photographs from one large commercial maize farm. Several socioeconomic factors were identified by participants as having negative impacts on farming operations, including government policies, crime, and load shedding. Climate change adaptation includes several dynamic management practices which vary between seasons, including adjustments in cultivar choice, sowing dates, sowing depth, and plant population density. Adopting conservation agriculture and precision agriculture techniques forms an important element used by the farmers to achieve long-term climate change adaptation. Going forward, farmers need to consider the impacts of both climate change and socioeconomic factors, both of which impact their agricultural operation and which can be conceptualised through a Water-Energy-Food nexus framework. Due to limited financial resources, farmers need to consider which drivers of change need to be prioritised in their decision-making, which ultimately may create differences in adaptation strategies adopted by different farmers
Defect–engineered lithium titanate anode materials for lithium–ion batteries
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-10) Podile, Seromo; Haruna, Aderemi Bashiru; Ozoemena, Kenneth Ikechukwu
Energy is one of the aspects that plays a central role in moving society forward since it is one of the most important agenda of global economic and energy forums. There is an urgent need to move to clean energy given the environmental and the health benefits resulting from implementing energy systems that utilize green energy. The proposed energy sources in these systems are primarily natural (e.g. wind and solar), which means they are beyond human control and would work better if coupled with energy storage devices (ESDs). From this emerge the importance of energy storage systems (ESSs) which mostly perform based on the materials utilized to assemble the devices. In this study, we seek to enhance the power and energy densities of two of the prominent energy storage systems, namely lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and lithium-ion capacitors (LICs), using modified commercial lithium titanate (LTO) materials as anodes. The materials consist of the pristine LTO (LTO-p), LTO coated with cerium fluoride (LTO-CeF3) and dry and wet irradiated pristine LTO (LTO-p-md and LTO-p-mw) and LTO coated with cerium fluoride (LTO-CeF3-md and LTO-CeF3-mw). Microwave irradiation was used to study the possible defect that the radiation can bring to the materials and possibly use the microwave effect to improve their electrochemistry. The effects of the coated layer of CeF3 and microwave irradiation on the structure of the commercial LTO were extensively studied using powder X-ray diffractometer (XRD), Raman spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy (TEM), high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) theory. Structural investigations of TEM micrographs revealed CeF3 was present on the surface of the coated LTO materials. Further analysis did show that some portion of the CeF3 coating layer was co-doped into the LTO nanostructures. The findings from XRD and XPS analyses showed that co doping promoted a mixed state of Ti3+ and Ti4+ resulting from charge compensation when Ce3+ and F possibly substituted Ti4+ and O2-. This mixed state of titanium ions allowed the materials to have high electric conductivity than the pristine LTO (LTO-p). The spectrographs obtained from XPS analysis also showed that LTO microwave irradiated materials without coating experienced the same mixed states, which may have originated from oxygen vacancies that allowed for charge compensation when some of the LTO-p Ti4+ had to turn to Ti3+. The HRTEM analysis demonstrated changes to the lattice planes spacing of the modified LTO materials and these changes supported the (111) lattice plane shifts observed in the XRD analysis. The electrochemistry of the lithium-ion battery was studied on all the materials using cycling voltammetry (CV), galvanostatic charge-discharge (GCD) and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) techniques. From GCD technique, the results indicated that the modified materials had higher specific capacities than LTO-p at all rates under rate capability studies. All as prepared materials were stable with coulombic efficiency of almost 100% for 100 cycles using 1 C, with modified materials surpassing LTO-p specific capacity. Cycling at a high rate (5 C) for 1000 cycles, saw LTO-md, LTO-mw, LTO-CeF3 and LTO-CeF3-md having high-capacity degradation after 500 cycles. It was also observed that initial capacities were retained up to the 1000th cycle for LTO-CeF3-mw and LTO-p. With an aim of comparing LTO-p and LTO-CeF3 half cells, these two materials were further studied for lithium-ion capacitors (LICs). This choice was based on LTO-CeF3 having a better charge-discharge profile, high specific capacity and coulombic efficiency than LTO-p. The improvements resulted from the coating layer (leveraging the high ionic conductivity and chemically inert properties of CeF3) and the observed defects seen on the XPS studies created by the coating synthesis process. The LTO-CeF3 anode was paired with a carbon black cathode to construct a full LIC cell. The assembled cell produced a maximal energy density of 107.4 Wh kg 1 with an accompanying power density of 2000 W kg-1, and it yielded a power density of 10 000 W kg -1 with an energy density of 61.8 Wh kg -1.
Determining the spatial variations of evapotranspiration rates in a semiarid region
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Sorour, Wendy; Shoko, Cletah
Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the biggest ways in which water is transferred from water resources into the atmosphere as water vapor and understanding its variations is important for water resource management. This study determined land use land cover (LULC)-based ET and the influence of climatic events in Western Cape. Landsat 8, Surface Energy Balance System, Support Vector Machine, humidity, wind speed, surface pressure, temperature, and sunshine hours were used, during El Nino in 2015-2016, normal year in 2019-2020, and La Nina in 2020-2021. Median ET was calculated for each LULC type to determine their effect on ET. Climatic events increased ET compared to the normal year and increasing temperatures and rainfall during EL Nino and La Nina years respectively were the main drivers. Water had the lowest ET, and agricultural land had the highest. The results of this study can be used to create better water resource management plans
Eco-art for a transformative climate culture
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Warrington-Coetzee, Hannelie; Voge, Coleen; Manderson, Lenore
Human”‘development” since the industrial revolution has unequivocally attributed to a code red of climate disasters, according to the recent IPCC Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC, 2022a). To selectively unlearn or de-grow the unsustainable industrial culture crisis, humanity needs seriously to consider and act to transform (e.g., through ecocitizenship) in support of governments, scientists, and other civic actions in our journey to sustainable futures. Using a transdisciplinary praxis approach, artists can provide various forms of transformative possibilities, including transgressive interventions at a grassroots level, deliberately designed to provoke and inspire change. This research interrogates how eco-art deeply engages audiences to identify the key characteristics of such potentially radically transformative artworks. Humans have a narrowing window to transform our relationship to the Earth’s resources and reverse or slow temperature rise. The ‘near term’ (2022 – 2030) will determine and define the extent of various climate transformation pathways (IPCC, 2022, p. 7). Relational eco-art creates spaces for meaningful dialogue to design opportunities for transcendence to ecological citizenship. Art also holds a potential revolutionary connection tool that can unite science and society in incidences of immersion and change to spur further creations and change. These works, which visually articulate diverse types of knowledge, are described in the literature as situated in the fecund middle, a hidden third zone in which components are rhizomatically connected. Here I use fecundity to refer to intellectual productivity. The study aimed to establish which characteristics in eco-art can contribute significantly more to sustainable eco-cultural development and what form and opportunities such transformative interventions manifest. The ways in which artists position their work to contribute to cultural climate change adaptation is interrogated in transdisciplinary praxis. In doing so, I interrogate previously published work of a select group of artists. This is not an inquiry into the methodology of transdisciplinary research, but, drawing on the artists’ praxis, I argue and expand on how the value of collaboration of scholars and artists working in these liminal spaces can reach new audiences. Two datasets are interrogated to analyse the approaches in art related to the environment, one eco-art characteristic derived from the author’s public art praxis, and the second, a broader interrogation of 50 international eco-artworks. By comparing and contrasting the two datasets, characteristics of intentionality, often built into the artworks, were identified. Six key characteristics were isolated, described and further interrogated to discover how they may create opportunities for society to build and foster potential cultural climate change solutions
Estimating rooftop solar energy potential using spatial radiation models and thermal remote sensing: The case of Witwatersrand University
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Ndemera, Rudo Hilda; Adem, Ali K.; Adam, Elhadi
The main purpose of this research was to estimate the University of Witwatersrand building’s rooftop solar energy potential using the GIS-based solar Area Solar Radiation (ASR) analyst upward hemispherical view shed algorithm. The two major datasets used in this research for rooftop solar energy potential modelling are building footprint data and the Digital Surface Model. Building footprint data, specifically rooftop area was extracted using machine learning CNTK unified toolkit and deep neural networks. The data was presented as individual polygon shape files for each building. The high-resolution Digital Surface Model imagery was sourced from the Advanced Land Observation Satellite. Pre-processing of the imagery was done for atmospheric correction. The DSM was then used in the Area Solar Radiation model to create an upward view shed for every point on the study area which is essential for computing solar radiation maps. The efficiency of using this algorithm is that it considers the shading effects caused by surrounding topography and surrounding man-made features, alterations in the azimuth angle and the position of the sun. Apart from the incoming solar radiation reaching the rooftops, the elevation and orientation of the rooftop cells limit the solar panel tilt angle and intensity of the incoming solar radiation, respectively. These factors were used in setting the suitability criteria together with solar radiation for the identification of suitable rooftop cells in this research. The relationship between land surface temperature and solar radiation values was assessed to determine if it can be used as an indicator for solar panel efficiency. Results from this research indicate that the University of Witwatersrand receives high levels of incoming solar radiation and has a high solar energy rooftop generation capacity that can meet the energy demand on campus. To improve accuracy of the research results, a drone could have been used to measure insolation across the study area to improve the spatial resolution. However, this was not possible due to various restrictions.
Evaluating the spatiotemporal changes of urban wetlands in Klip River wetland, South Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-09) Nxumalo, Nolwazi; Knight, Jasper; Adam, Elhadi
This study assesses the impacts of land use / land cover (LULC) change in an urban wetland over the past 30 years utilizing machine learning and satellite-based techniques. This study looked at LULC distributions in the Klip River wetland in Gauteng, South Africa. The aims and methods used in this study were: (1) to conduct a comprehensive analysis to map and evaluate the effects of LULC changes in the Klip River wetland spanning from 1990 to 2020, employing Landsat datasets at intervals of 10 years, and to quantify both spatial and temporal alterations in urban wetland area. (2) To predict the change in urban wetland area due to specific LULC changes for 2030 and 2040 using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS. This model is based on observed LULC including bare soil, built-up area, water, wetland, and other vegetation in the quaternary catchment C22A of the Klip River wetland, using multispectral satellite images obtained from Landsat 5 (1990), Landsat 7 (2000 and 2010) and Landsat 8 OLI (2020). (3) For the results of this study, thematic maps were classified using the Random Forest algorithm in Google Earth Engine. Change maps were produced using QGIS to determine the spatiotemporal changes within the study area. To simulate future LULC for 2030 and 2040, the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS v2.8.18 was used. The overall accuracies achieved for the classified maps for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 85.19%, 89.80%, 84.09%, and 88.12%, respectively. The results indicated a significant decrease in wetland area from 14.82% (6949.39 ha) in 1990 to 5.54% (2759.2 ha) in 2020. The major causes of these changes were the build-up area, which increased from 0.17% (80.36 ha) in 1990 to 45.96% (22 901 ha) in 2020—the projected years 2030 and 2040 achieved a kappa value of 0.71 and 0.61, respectively. The results indicate that built-up areas continue to increase annually, while wetlands will decrease. These LULC transformations posed a severe threat to the wetlands. Hence, proper management of wetland ecosystems is required, and if not implemented soon, the wetland ecosystem will be lost.
Extreme weather events and human health in South Africa: implications for climate services
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Manyuchi, Albert Edgar; Erasmus, Barend; Wright, Caradee; Vogel, Coleen
Extreme weather events (EWEs), defined as ‘weather events that are rare at a particular place and time of the year’, have increasingly been affecting many countries worldwide (IPCC 2014). The increased occurrence and intensity of EWEs, among other factors, has increased public interest and demand for climate information. More detail is needed on EWEs and how they can be more effectively coupled to climate services in Africa. This study brings a compendium of empirical evidence, conceptual clarity and transdisciplinary approaches to policymakers, researchers and practitioners dealing with these crucial issues. The main aim of this study is to explore the human health effects of EWEs, particularly heat and the delivery of climate services for health in Africa. Through a systematic review, the study examines the potential impacts of heat on human health in Africa. Using a case study approach heathealth effects are evaluated including the status of climate services in the Agincourt subdistrict of South Africa. A novel systems theory-based conceptual framework and an inclusive analytical framework are employed to explore climate services delivery within the context of climate change adaptation. The study produces two main findings. First, EWEs particularly heat, potentially affects human health in Africa by changing mortality and morbidity patterns. In the Agincourt sub-district in particular, heat may be associated with adverse health effects on vulnerable populations, including inter alia the elderly, children and outdoor workers. Despite this, Africa-specific heat-health interventions and policy suggestions are scarce. Second, climate services are generally in embryonic stages of development and climate services for health in Agincourt subdistrict are non-existent. Within the South African context, the main barriers to delivery of climate services for health are paucity of interagency coordination and gaps in meteorological data. One of the key conclusions of the study is that African countries can promote development of climate services to adapt to EWEs such as heat. Heat, and heatwaves, for example, are already affecting populations, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with concomitant adverse effects on health outcomes on vulnerable population groups. The three key recommendations from this study are as follows. First, African policymakers and practitioners must avoid a reductionist approach to analysis of EWEs, especially heat impacts and start viewing these as harmful to human health. Therefore, governments must prioritise interventions, create institutions and formulate policy measures to deal with the health effects of heat within their national adaptations plans. Second, African countries must prioritise policy mixes that promote climate services in general and climate services for health in particular. And finally, further policy-science research that generates empirical evidence for African policymakers and practitioners engaged in international negotiations and programmes for climate change adaptation and climate services should be encouraged.
Factors affecting mammal utilisation of non-wildlife railway underpasses within the Greater Kruger, South Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) de Villiers, Hannah; Parrini, Francesca; Teren, Gabriella
Railways are an integral component of sustainable transport systems, but cause significant impacts to biodiversity, primarily through wildlife-train collisions and the habitat fragmentation created in the landscape. Crossing structures (CSs) for wildlife are the key mitigation measure for these adverse impacts, which will be critical throughout Africa, where 55,000 km of new railway lines are predicted to cut through hundreds of protected areas. For the first time in southern Africa, mammal usage of railway underpasses that were not designed to facilitate wildlife movement was studied using camera traps in the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa. This study demonstrates that 70% of the terrestrial medium and large mammals species present in the area used at least one non-wildlife CS during the study period, with a total of 1,823 usage events by 33 species. Twelve medium to large African mammal species used underpasses regularly, improving the permeability of the railway line for these species. A viaduct design was characterised by almost four times the usage rate of a typical box culvert and was used by twice as many species, including megaherbivores and mesoherbivores, whereas box culverts supported a smaller number of species, of which the majority were predators. Species most affected by rail collisions in the study area were mostly herbivorous and seldom used non-wildlife underpasses. These results indicate that a railway line with only drainage culverts and the occasional viaduct is not effective in providing adequate safe crossing structures for megaherbivores and ungulate mesoherbivores. Contrary to expectations, vegetation and environmental factors influenced mammal usage of box culverts more than structural dimensions. Ensuring that there is high visibility through the structure, with less herbaceous cover and more woody cover outside of entrances, is likely to enhance culvert usage by most trophic groups. In a savanna context where faunal diversity is high and no single species is a target for mitigation, a range of underpass designs including larger viaducts, located in different types of vegetation cover, thereby combining the range of requirements of different guilds, is recommended.
Geochemical Investigation Into Holocene Palaeoenvironmental Change Along The Southern Cape Coast, South Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-06) Dyubele, Viwe; Quick, Lynne; Humphries, Marc
Climatic conditions across southern Africa are affected by the complex interaction of different atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems, the understanding of which is important to predicting future climate change. Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction is an essential tool to understand long-term environmental change and the response of ecosystems to such changes. This study examines the geochemical composition of a sediment core (WR1-1) extracted from a freshwater wetland located near Plettenberg Bay on the southern Cape coast. The wetland is located ~4 m above present sea level and positioned ~500 m from the modern coast. Situated within the year-round rainfall zone, the site is influenced by tropical easterly flow and the southern westerlies. Elemental and stable isotope geochemistry are used to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental change at the site over the last ~8000 cal yr BP. Variations in CaO/Al2O3, Sr/Al2O3 and δ13C indicate that marine conditions dominated from 7300 to 6400 cal yr BP. Marine influence at the site decreased dramatically from ~6300 cal yr BP, as the system transitioned to a freshwater back-barrier wetland. Enrichments in SiO2/Al2O3 and Zr/Al2O3 track changes in depositional energy and suggest that the period 3800 – 3200 cal yr BP was associated with increased aeolian activity. This is interpreted to reflect increased aridity and is consistent with geochemical and pollen records from nearby sites at Eilandvlei and Voëlvlei. This suggests that a shift to more arid conditions during this time was a broad feature of the climate in the year-round rainfall zone of South Africa. The timing of this event corresponds with a marked decrease in Antarctic sea ice and pronounced aridity along the east coast of South Africa, suggesting that mid to late Holocene aridity in the YRZ was likely driven by declines in moisture from both westerly and easterly wind systems.
Heat-related health impacts: the responses of local governments to current and emerging heat extremes in the Gauteng province
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Riley, Bradley; Vogel, Coleen
In recent years, particularly during the last few summer seasons across the globe, there has been growing attention to the impacts of heat on human health due to unprecedented extreme heat and heatwave events. Cities and urban areas are especially at risk due to enhanced urbanisation and anthropogenic activities, leading to increased heat-related deaths and hospitalisation. Although many cities globally have developed adaptation approaches to address the current and emerging heat risks, heat adaptation strategies and planning in an African context have been poorly recognised despite the continent warming at double the rate of global temperatures. The high vulnerability of African cities due to poverty and poor socio-economic conditions, coupled with these temperature extremes, puts African societies at the forefront of future heat-related health impacts. South Africa is one African country that has recognised these growing heat risks and provided frameworks in their national and municipal policy and planning instruments. However, implementing and mainstreaming heat action across institutional structures remains a challenge. This study investigated the extent of current heat responses within three metropolitan municipalities in the Gauteng Province, South Africa, in the cities of Tshwane, Ekhuruleni and Johannesburg; to advance heat action within the local government and institutional structures of the province. In this mixed-methods research design, local officials from the municipality’s Environmental Health Department in each metro were interviewed, and a perception-informed assessment of vulnerability to heat-related health impacts was developed using Principal Component Analysis. Through interviews with the local Environmental Health Officials, it was revealed that extreme heat is not a priority within the Department, as heat action is neither mandated nor budgeted for, leading to a misalignment between policy and implementation. The ability of the Department to unlock its full potential for heat action is constrained by many challenges, highlighted by three central themes: (1) Resource capacity and the ripple effects, (2) Policy-implementation gap and (3) Interdepartmental coordination. Despite this, the Department has the potential to unlock many opportunities for future heat responses, highlighted by four central themes: (1) Existing systems: connecting the dots, (2) Power in unity: embracing a collaborative approach, (3) Mandated heat action and (4) Specialised heat action units. Additionally, this study demonstrated how a heat vulnerability assessment tool could be created using heat-specific socio-economic variables. This reveals the spatial distribution of vulnerability throughout the metro’s and highlights high levels of vulnerability within rural and informal settlements due to poverty, lack of access to resources and services and poor living conditions in these areas. Such an approach can offer valuable insights into the populations and areas most susceptible and at risk of heat-related health impacts, which can aid in developing targeted heat action responses and plans. Finally, this study contributes
Integration of Sustainable Development Principles and Climate Change Adaptation Measures in Energy Optimization in Gold Mining in South Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-08) Nadunga, Irene; Simatele, Mulala Danny
South Africa located in the sub-Saharan African region and being a mining-intense country, is reported to be affected by extreme weather events which are increasing the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts and therefore reducing the chances of achieving sustainable development. In light of this, mining companies are being pressured to make strong commitments towards implementation of sustainable development principles for sustainable mining. This study therefore aimed at investigating how sustainable development principles and climate change adaptation measures are interlinked and structured; and embedded in a gold mining company’s policies and strategies, in an effort to build the mining operations’ adaptive capacity and resilience against the impacts of climate change and achieve energy optimization. The challenges that can potentially prevent the effective integration of the sustainability principles and adaptation measures were also explored. Using a case study approach, this study was centered on the gold mining operations located within the Witwatersrand Basin of South Africa. Research data was collected from multiple sources, therefore employing a mixed method approach by applying the concurrent triangulation technique. Different analytical tools of policy, content and inductive data analysis, and descriptive statistical data analysis were applied. The empirical evidence shows that the gold mining operations are faced with increasing operating costs associated with the increased energy consumption and implementation of costly mining practices in an effort to combat the impacts of extreme weather events caused by climate change. This affirms that a relationship exists between climate change and energy use in gold mining. In an effort to address climate related risks and energy security, gold mining operations are implementing energy efficiency measures and using renewable energy in their energy mix; which measures are seen to integrate sustainability principles, therefore adopted as sustainability adaptation measures. In addition, some mining company policies and strategies are also seen to integrate sustainability principles and adaptation measures, in an effort to guide the mining operations in effectively developing and implementing sustainability adaptation measures, designed to holistically address climate related risks and energy security. This affirms that a relationship exists between sustainable development principles, climate change adaptation measures and energy optimization. This therefore, implies that sustainability principles and adaptation measures can be integrated to form sustainability adaptation measures, and that gold mining companies have the potential to achieve sustainable mining and contribute to sustainable development, particularly achieving SDG 7 and SDG 13.
Late Quaternary Palynological Studies at Lake St Lucia, KwaZulu-Natal
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-08) Effiom, Angela Charles; Neumann, Frank; Bamford, Marion
Palynological studies were done on lacustrine sediments deposited during the last ~6300 and about ~2000 cal yrs BP in Mkhuze Swamp, which drains into the most northern part of Lake St Lucia located in the Indian Ocean Coastal Belt Biome of KwaZulu-Natal, eastern South Africa. The aim was to reconstruct the past vegetation and to infer past climate fluctuations as well as human disturbances to complement growing evidence from other disciplines about these questions in the area. Following standard palynological methods, samples from two cores Mkhuze River Delta (MKD-1, long core) and Mkhuze swamp (MK24-1, short core) were extracted and analyzed. Palynological results for both cores show a dominance of Poaceae (20-90%) suggesting a strong influence of grassy woodland savanna. Spirostachys pollen dominated the arboreal spectra of the pollen profile in MK24-1, but it dominated the arboreal pollen spectra for the last 2600 cal yrs BP in MKD-1 as Podocarpus pollen dominated the arboreal spectra from 6300-2600 cal yrs BP indicating a change from a forested environment to a more open woodland environment. The results also show that the mid Holocene was humid with high precipitation and high sea level while the late Holocene was warm, dry with Marine influence (more sea water flowing into the lake due to high evaporation and low fresh water supply caused by drought). Similar pollen fluctuations were observed in records from Lakes Eteza and Sibaya also located within the Indian Ocean Coastal Belt Biome. The presence of Pinus pollen at the top of the profiles suggests the onset of European settlement when pines were introduced for timber production. Other published pollen records from the region in the last ~7000 cal BP show a general trend from a mesic forested environment towards an open woodland environment with grasses which is due to climate change.
Mapping and monitoring land transformation of Boane district, Mozambique (1980 – 2020), using remote sensing
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Dengo, Claudio Antonio; Atif, Iqra; Adam, Elhadi
Although natural and environmental factors play a significant role in land transformation, human actions dominate. Therefore, to better understand the present land uses and predict the future, accurate information describing the nature and extent of changes over time is necessary and critical, especially for developing countries. It is estimated that these countries will account for 50% of the world's population growth in the next few years. Hence, this research was an attempt to assess and monitor land cover changes in Boane, Mozambique, over the past 40 years and predict what to expect in the next 30 years. This district has been challenged by a fast-growing population and land use dynamic, with quantitative information, driving forces and impacts remaining unknown. Through a supervised process in a cloud base Google Earth Engine platform, a set of five Landsat images at ten-year intervals were classified using a random forest algorithm. Seven land classes, i.e., agriculture, forest, built-up, barren, rock, wetland and water bodies, were extracted and compared through a pixel-by-pixel process as one of the most precise and accurate methods in remote sensing and geographic information system applications. The results indicate an active alternate between all land classes, with significant changes observed within agriculture, forest and build-up classes. As it is, while agriculture (-26.1%) and forest (-21.4%) showed a continuously decreasing pattern, build-up class (45.8%) increased tremendously. Consequently, over 69% of the forest area and 59% of the agricultural area shifted into build-up, i.e., was degraded or destroyed. Similarly, the conversion of barren land area (57.2%) and rock area (47.3%) into build-up indicates that those areas were cleaned. The overall classification accuracy averaged 90% and a kappa coefficient of 0.8779 were obtained. The CA-Markov model, used to assess future land uses, indicates that build-up will continue to increase significantly, covering 60% of the total area. From this finding, the land cover situation in the next 30 years will be critical if no action is taken to stop this uncontrolled urban sprawl. An adequate land use plan must be drawn, clearly indicating the locations for different activities and actions for implementation.
Modelling current and future distributions of Warburgia species at continental (Africa) and local (South Africa) scales Samista Kim
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Rooplal, Samista Kim; Thompson, D.I.; Glennon, K.L.; Witkowski, E.T.F.
Warburgia is a genus of trees and shrubs that is greatly valued in Africa for its use in traditional medicine. The genus contains four species, one of which has two subspecies: Warburgia elongata, W. salutaris, W. stuhlmannii, W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and Wugandensis subsp. ugandensis. Individuals are harvested primarily for their bark, which contains pharmacological compounds that are used to treat various ailments. Due to the high demand, species within the genus are overharvested throughout their range and have consequently become threatened by extinction. Warburgia salutaris, the pepper-bark tree, is the only species of the genus that naturally occurs in South Africa. Like its congeners, Wasalutaris is heavily exploited for its bark and has been listed as IUCN Endangered in South Africa. This dissertation, therefore, assesses the distributions of Warburgia species in eastern and southern Africa to identify new, potentially suitable areas to increase population numbers to aid in the conservation of the genus. The aim of the first part of the study was to assess the eastern and southern African distributions of Warburgia species. Species distribution models (SDMs) were created for the four Warburgia species and two subspecies, and the geographic distributions and key environmental predictors were identified for each taxon. Environmental niche analyses were also performed to understand whether the two subspecies of W. ugandensis should be considered as a single species in accordance with the ecological species concept. The second part of the study aimed to assess how the current South African distribution of W. salutaris will be affected by future climate change. An SDM was produced to assess the current distribution of W. salutaris in South Africa and identify its key predictor climate variables. The SDM was then extrapolated into the future (2070) using two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which are greenhouse gas emission scenarios that predict future climates under a probable and extreme scenario, respectively. Ecological niche analyses were also used to assess the degree to which W. salutaris’ climatic niche will change in response to the two climate change scenarios. Results showed that the distributions of Warburgia species are restricted and primarily influenced by climatic variables that likely impact their seeds’ and seedlings’ sensitivity to water stress and desiccation. Ecological niche modelling results show that the climatic niches of W. ugandensis subsp. longifolia and W. ugandensis subsp. ugandensis are identical and should therefore be considered as a single species according to the ecological species concept. The South African distribution of W. salutaris is fragmented and restricted. The species’ current and future distribution is influenced by its sensitivity to frost and the fact that it produces seeds that are susceptible to drying out. SDMs predicted that the distribution of W. salutaris will shrink in eastern Limpopo and in parts of Mpumalanga, but increase in eastern KwaZulu-Natal by 2070 under both climate change scenarios. Overall, this species was predicted to contract from the Indian Ocean coastal belt and grassland biomes and expand into the savanna biome. This study has expanded our knowledge of the distributions and environmental drivers of Warburgia species. It was found that in general, Warburgia species have restricted ranges that are likely governed by their sensitivity to desiccation at the seed and seedling stages. Climate change is anticipated to negatively impact the populations of many plant species, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the environmental niche of W. salutaris will remain stable, its geographical distribution was predicted to expand further in the savanna biome along the eastern coast of South Africa in response to climate change. Results from this study support pursuing different conservation techniques, including propagating Warburgia populations around the Great Lakes of Africa and Mt. Kenya and in western Limpopo and eastern KwaZulu-Natal for W. salutaris only. This study therefore emphasizes the importance of using SDMs as a baseline to inform effective conservation efforts for important medicinal plant species
Palynological insights into an 11,700-year sequence of vegetation change in mashishing, Mpumalanga, northeastern South Africa
(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023) Olatoyan, Jerry O.; Schoeman, Alex; Neumann, Frank; Sievers, Christine; Orijemie, Emuobosa; Evans, Mary
In this thesis, the issue of distinguishing anthropogenic and climatic drivers of vegetation change was explored through the analysis of pollen, phytoliths and microcharcoal in core sediment records from Mashishing Fen in the Thaba Chweu Municipality, Mpumalanga province, northeastern South Africa, that date from ca. 11.2 – 11.7 ka BP to the present. In southern Africa, generally, the distinction between the contributions of anthropogenic and climatic factors to vegetation changes poses a complex challenge in palaeoenvironmental research. This difficulty often arises due to limited, well-dated palaeoenvironmental sequences suitable for correlations between archaeological and palaeoecological records. For the last 2000 years, there has been a scarcity of direct evidence for farming, such as grains and other domesticated plants, and pastoralism. A further difficulty is that some plant taxa may be indicators for intense droughts but also signify anthropogenic disturbances. At the centre of the thesis are three papers. The first comprises a synthesis of existing literature of archaeobotanical evidence that was done to evaluate the relationship between climate, anthropogenic activities, and vegetation change during the first millennium CE in southern Africa. I focussed on this context in the paper because it is a time in which the arrival of pastoralism and farming in the region makes it the most likely period during which distinct anthropogenic vegetation change occurred. The published data demonstrates that microfossil assemblages are potential indicators of anthropogenic activities of pre-European pastoralists and farmers of the region, with patterns including a decline in tree pollen and increases in microcharcoal, spores of coprophilous fungi, open land/disturbance indicators, and ruderal species. The second paper addresses some of the limitations of palynology as a method. A modern pollen- and phytolith-vegetation study was conducted on surface sediment samples linked to the botanical survey of five vegetation survey plots at and around Mashishing Fen to investigate the relationships between the modern pollen and phytoliths in the surface samples and the contemporary vegetation within the area. The results support the accepted view that pollen and phytoliths often do not track similar vegetation signals. The modern pollen assemblages clearly track forest and wetland vegetation, and the modern phytolith assemblages reflect grassland vegetation in the area. The study confirmed that differential phytolith and pollen production, dispersal and preservation substantially influence the proxy records and that combining phytolith and pollen data provides a more accurate basis for plant fossil interpretations in palaeoenvironmental studies. The results of this paper constrained my interpretation of the pollen data used in the third paper. Finally, pollen, spores and microcharcoal data from the core sediment records from Mashishing Fen (formerly the Lydenburg Fen) provide palaeoenvironmental records for approximately the last 11,2 to 11,7 ka years–most of the Holocene. The data is interpreted through the patterns identified in the first paper, including potential indicators of anthropogenic activities. The data of the earlier period provide a backdrop to possible anthropogenic change in the first millennium CE; the extended data illustrate paleoenvironmental changes that took place in a region occupied by hunter-gatherers but predate any possible anthropogenic influences by pastoralists or farmers. The core data suggests that the early Holocene began with moist and warm conditions that were followed by fluctuations between wet and dry conditions during the mid-Holocene and the decline of trees with the dominance of open-land indicators during the later Holocene, thereby providing the basis for correlating the palaeoecological records with the archaeological records in the region

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Browsing Faculty of Science (ETDs) by SDG "SDG-13: Climate action"

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