Faculty of Science (ETDs)

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    The Relationship between Climate Variability, Household Food Security, and Child Nutrition in a Rural Social-Ecological System
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Xuba, Ntshika
    Climate change is expected to impact livelihoods and human well-being, with rural areas potentially most at risk. The potential impacts of climate change on food security and nutrition in rural communities are particularly worrying. The socioeconomic disparities that exist in South Africa also drive disparities in food insecurity and undernutrition, with some people being affected more than others. Climate change is believed to threaten food security and nutrition, but only a limited number of studies in South Africa have evaluated the impact of climate change on changing household food security and, hence, the nutritional status of children under five years over time. Therefore, this study evaluated how climate variability (a proxy for climate change because of data limitations), specifically changes in precipitation, affected household food security and the nutritional status of children under five years between 2010 and 2021 in a rural social-ecological system in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. It is the first of its kind to assess the impact of climate variability on the changes in household dietary diversity, the experience of hunger and the prevalence of child undernutrition while considering the impact of household socioeconomic characteristics in the context of a rural social-ecological system. This study is part of the SUCSES (Sustainability in Communal Social-ecological Systems) study, which aims to examine household livelihood and socioeconomic characteristics and how this influences child nutrition. SUCSES is nested within the MRC/Wits Agincourt Health and Sociodemographic Surveillance System site, which consists of 31 villages with households that rely on remittances and government social assistance as their main livelihood strategies. SUCSES, however, comprised 590 households at baseline in 2010. The children’s ages (months), heights (cm) and weights (kg) were available for each household. These measurements were used to calculate the children’s weight-for-height, weight for-age, and height-for-age, respectively, and to categorise the number of children who were wasted, underweight, or stunted according to the United Nations Children’s Fund’s nutritional standards. These numbers were then used to determine the prevalence and severity of wasting, underweightness and stunting. The household dietary diversity score (HDDS) and the household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS) are two food security indices developed using data from the SUCSES household survey questionnaires. These indices were used to quantify changes and trends in household food security status over time, while household socioeconomic characteristics, such as employment, asset ownership and household head, among others, were assessed as potential drivers of these households’ food security status. Then, utilising these food security and nutrition indices, the association between food security and child nutrition was examined. Seasonal precipitation trends were also quantified after converting rainfall averages to precipitation anomalies. The effects of precipitation were then assessed by comparing the variations in precipitation to indicators of food security and nutrition. Between 2010 and 2021, there was a significant rise in the prevalence and severity of wasting. Similar variations over time were seen in the prevalence and severity of underweightness (low weight-for-age). Stunting (low height-for-age) exhibited the highest mean prevalence and severity compared to wasting and underweightness, which fluctuated over time. The prevalence of stunting had no directional trend over the years, but the severity of stunting has increased dramatically, raising concerns because chronic poverty is a proxy for long-term undernutrition (e.g., stunting). Although the experience of hunger did not change, these households experienced a decrease in the diversity of diets over time. The diversity of diets was only associated with weight-for-height and weight-for-age in girls under five, despite popular research suggesting that food security is a significant contributor to nutrition. Therefore, households with less varied diets reported more wasted and underweight girls. Generally, rainfall stayed above normal between 2010 and 2014 while falling below average in the following years. However, the statistical analysis used in this study did not find evidence to support a downward or upward trend in precipitation over time. Changes in precipitation had little effect on the households’ experiences of hunger or how diverse their diets have been over time, but these precipitation patterns were associated with weight-for-height, with wasting (low weight-for-height) being more prevalent in below-average rainfall years. The study’s findings highlight the potential influence of climate change on nutritional status, regardless of changes in household food security, but the study’s low sample size may have limited this. Future studies need to build on this research, considering this study’s limitations, to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between climate change, food security and child nutrition