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Item Breast cancer survival to 5 years among young (<40 years) women in the sub-saharan African breast cancer-disparities in outcome (ABC-DO) cohort study(2024) Abioye, Oyepeju F.Introduction: Breast cancer remains a key global health challenge, accounting for most prevalent cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The impact of age at diagnosis on breast cancer survival has not been extensively investigated within the African context. Therefore, this study’s objectives were to estimate the breast cancer survival time among women 40 years) women in the ABC-DO Cohort Study in SSA. Methods: Secondary data analysis of breast cancer patients from the multi-country ABC-DO Prospective Cohort Study of 5 African countries was carried out. Baseline characteristics of study participants were summarized using descriptive statistics. Kaplan Meier curves were generated to evaluate breast cancer survival time by age group “<40 years, 40-64 years, 65+ years”. With the aid of Cox Multivariate Regression Modelling, factors correlated with a 5-year survival differential between younger and older women were investigated and Hazard Ratios were calculated adjusting for confounders. Results: This study had a total number of 2158 participants, 462 (21.41%) were <40 years at diagnosis, 1314 were between 40-64years (60.89%), while 382 patients were 65 years and above (17.70%). A total of 1211 deaths were recorded at 5 years. The total time at risk and incidence rate at 5 years was 6086.73 person years and 33 per 100 women respectively. The lowest overall survival at 5 years was found among women <40 years (33.46%; CI = 0.28-0.38), followed by women aged 65 years+ (37.63%; CI = 0.32-0.42), and highest overall survival was among women in the 40-64 years age group (42.66%; CI=0.39-0.45). For each country, the 5-year probability of survival was higher among women aged 40-64 compared to women under 40. On Cox multivariate analysis, a 20% rise in mortality was reported among women < 40 years (aHR 1.20; 95% CI= 1.03- 1.36) compared to women between 40-64 years in the final model, at p<0.05. The variables significantly associated with 5-year survival differential between younger and older women were: HIV status, Residence, and Stage at Diagnosis. Conclusion: This study reports that breast cancer survival among women in sub-Saharan Africa is age-specific, with lower 5-year overall and country-specific survival among women < 40 years in comparison to older women. Factors associated with lower survival include stage at diagnosis, HIV status, and area of residence. Young women (<40 years) in SSA remain at risk of increased mortality from breast cancer, hence there is an urgent need for targeted strategies to achieve a more favorable stage at diagnosis and improved survival in this populace.Item Cost utility analysis of long acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) as an alternative to long acting beta agonists (labas) for treatment of severe COPD in the South African public sector(2024) Thompson, PeggyObjective- The study purposed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of Tiotropium, compared with Salmeterol and Indacaterol for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients within the South African public sector. Methods- A global Markov model was adapted for the local setting and developed in Microsoft Excel. Transition probabilities and data on costs, resource use and effectiveness were obtained from literature. Outcomes were calculated for 3-years in the base case, then extrapolated over a 10-year and lifetime time horizon. A 5% discounting rate was applied according to local guidelines. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to consider model uncertainty. Results- When compared with Indacaterol (300µg), Tiotropium was dominant (less costly and more effective) across all time horizons. Conversely, Tiotropium was not cost-effective when compared with Indacaterol (150µg) and dominated by Salmeterol over the 3- and 10-year time horizons. The resulting ICURs exceeded the estimated willingness to pay thresholds for all scenarios. The deterministic sensitivity analysis revealed the new intervention cost and utility for mild COPD impacted most on intervention cost effectiveness. Conclusion- Tiotropium was deemed not cost-effective at the proposed price, when compared to usual care for COPD. A price reduction should be considered, to determine the feasibility of displacing existing maintenance therapies. Indacaterol 150µg appeared more cost-effective at the current price and effectiveness demonstrated.Item Determinants of mortality in children younger than five years admitted with severe acute malnutrition to three hospitals in Vhembe district, Limpopo(2024) Fakudze, DakaloBackground: In 2014, one-third of child deaths occurring in South African hospitals were attributed to severe acute malnutrition. This study sought to determine demographic, family, socio-economic, clinical, and case-management factors contributing to mortality in severely malnourished children younger than 5 years admitted to three hospitals in Vhembe district, Limpopo, South Africa. Methods: A retrospective record review of children aged 6 to 59 months admitted with severe acute malnutrition over 30 months was conducted. Bivariable and multivariable regression analyses of determinants of mortality were undertaken. Results: Two hundred and forty-five children with severe acute malnutrition were identified. Their median (interquartile [IQR]) age was 14 (10, 18) months. The overall mortality was 26.9% (66/245). Determinants of mortality, based on the multivariable analysis, included diarrhoea on presentation (odds ratio [OR]=3.34, 95% CI 1.38, 8.10); anaemia (OR=3.30, 95% CI 1.28, 8.50]); a raised CRP (OR=9.29, 95% CI 2.81, 30.76]); and hyponatraemia (OR=6.64, 95% CI 2.70, 16.31). HIV status and a diagnosis of shock were not significant determinants of mortality. Conclusion: Severe acute malnutrition mortality was high, particularly for a high middle-income country setting. Factors that may be amenable to intervention include better management of the presenting illness, particularly diarrhea, a focus on electrolyte imbalance correction, and treatment of anemia.Item Efficacy of water suppression method for controlling the emissions of submicron particles at a quarry, Boksburg, South Africa(2024) Mkwanazi, D. D.Background: Respiratory diseases has contributed 70% to worldwide occupational disease mortality in all industrial sectors since over a decade ago. Pneumoconioses occur as a result of accumulation of dust in the lungs. Silicosis, one of the most common forms of pneumoconioses, presents in three different forms namely acute, accelerated, and chronic silicosis. Quarrying and open cast mining are responsible for different workplace hazards including noise, trauma, vibration, ultraviolet radiation, and dust exposure, which may cause silicosis. Lung deposition of particulate matter depend on the particulate matter surface characteristics, aerodynamic size, and weight. Quarrying and stone crushing activities are associated with high levels of crystalline silica release. Water suppression has been proven to effectively control dust in mining and construction industries, but not enough attention has been paid on effects of water suppression on fine particulate matter. Purpose: To evaluate efficacy of water suppression as a dust control measure for submicron particles for the primary, secondary and tertiary treatment processes during the production of stone aggregates in a quarry. Methods: In this cross-sectional study data was collected using a Nanozen dust sampling device to monitor dust emissions in 0.300µm to 10.658µm bin sizes across 4 different sampling points namely primary, secondary, tertiary treatment area, and office complex at a quarry in Boksburg, South Africa. In the primary treatment area big rocks are crushed into 150mm smaller rock without dust suppression, the secondary area breaks them further into 57mm stones with water supperssion applied, and tertiary breaks them into 19mm and smaller stone products under further water suppression conditions. Primary treatment area and office complex were sampled as dry areas, while secondary and tertiary treatment areas were sampled as water suppression areas. Data was analysed based on mass and number concentrations for different bin sizes, and comparisons were made between dry and wet areas. The effect of water treatment (suppression) on submicron bin ranges (0.300-0.915µm) in terms of mass concentration and number concentration was analysed to determine its efficacy in reducing dust emissions in this range. Results: The total average mass concentration of 460.2 µg/m3 (±486.3) was emitted from the primary area without dust suppression with average of 2.22E+08 (±136958.7) number concentration. This was reduced to 6.02µg/m3 and 60.9 million (±552879) mass and number concentration respectively in secondary treatment area with water suppression. In tertiary area emissions were 10.52µg/m3 and 54.8 million particles/cm3 (±828126) respectively for mass and number concentrations following further water suppression, while in office area (no water suppression) 6.07µg/m3 and 44.4 million/cm3 mass and number concentrations were recorded respectively. Conclusions & Recommendations: Data showed reduction of emissions between primary and secondary area by 98.7% (mass concentration) and 72.5% (number concentration). Further treatment in tertiary treatment showed a further decrease in total average number concentration compared to secondary treatment. Emissions at the office block as a control site were consistent with emissions from secondary and tertiary treatment areas, demonstrating possible dispersion by wind. Water suppression was demonstrated to be effective against particle bin sizes larger than 1 micron, with progressively less effect on submicron particles as they became smaller. More research is recommended on suppression of submicron dust particulate matter emission and consideration of number concentration as a key dose matrix to determine exposure.Item Estimating and predicting HIV risk using statistical and machine learning methods: a case study using the 2005 to 2015 Zimbabwe demographic health survey data(2024) Makota, Rutendo Beauty BirriBackground: The 90–90–90 targets were launched by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and partners with the aim to diagnose 90% of all HIV-positive persons, provide antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 90% of those diagnosed, and achieve viral suppression for 90% of those treated by 2020. In Zimbabwe, a population-based survey in 2016 reported that 74.2% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 15–64 years knew their HIV status. Among the PLHIV who knew their status, 86.8% self-reported current use of Antiretroviral treatment (ART), with 86.5% of those who self-reported being virally suppressed. For these 90–90–90 targets to be met, prevalence and incidence rate estimates are crucial in understanding the current status of the HIV epidemic and determining whether the trends are improving to achieve the 2030 target. Ultimately, this will contribute to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 3 (SDG 3) and the broader goal of promoting sustainable development and eradicating poverty worldwide by 2030. Using data from household surveys, this thesis provides a unique statistical approach for estimating the incidence and prevalence of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). To properly assess the efficacy of focused public health interventions and to appropriately forecast the HIV-related burden placed on healthcare systems, a comprehensive assessment of HIV incidence is essential. Targeting certain age groups with a high risk of infection is necessary to increase the effectiveness of public health interventions. To jointly estimate age-and-timedependent HIV incidence and diagnosis rates, the methodological focus of this thesis was on developing a comprehensive statistical framework for age-dependent HIV incidence estimates. Additionally, the risk of HIV infection was also evaluated using interval censoring methods and machine learning. Finally, geospatial modelling techniques were also utilised to determine the spatial patterns of HIV incidence at district levels and identify hot spots for HIV risk to guide policy. The main aim of this thesis was to estimate and predict HIV risk using statistical and machine learning methods. Study objectives: The study objectives of this thesis were: 1. To determine the effect of several drivers/factors of HIV infection on survival time over a decade in Zimbabwe, using current status data. 2. To determine common risk factors of HIV positivity in Zimbabwe and the prediction capability of machine learning models. 3. To estimate HIV incidence using the catalytic and Farrington models and to test the validity of these estimates at the national and sub-national levels. 4. To estimate the age- and time-dependent prevalence and HIV Force-of-infection (FOI) using current status data by comparing parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric models; and determining which models best fit the data. 5. To investigate the HIV incidence hotspots in Zimbabwe by using geographicallyweighted regression. Methods: We performed secondary data analysis on cross-sectional data collected from the Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS) from 2005 to 2015. Datasets from three Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey HIV test results and adult interviews were merged, and records without an HIV test result were excluded from the analysis. The outcome variable was HIV status. Survey and cluster-adjusted logistic regression were used to determine variables for use in survival analysis with HIV status as the outcome variable. Covariates found significant in the logistic regression were used in survival analysis to determine the factors associated with HIV infection over the ten years. The data for the survival analysis was modelled assuming age at survey imputation (Model 1) and interval-censoring (Model 2). To determine the risk of HIV infection using machine learning methods, the prediction model was fit by adopting 80% of the data for learning/training and 20% for testing/prediction. Resampling was done using the stratified 5-fold cross-validation procedure repeatedly. The best algorithm was the one with the highest F1 score, which was then used to identify individuals with a higher likelihood of HIV infection. Considering that the proportion of those HIV negative and positive was imbalance with a ratio of 4.2:1, we applied resampling methods to handle the class imbalance. We performed the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to balance the classes. We evaluated two alternative methods for predicting HIV incidence in Zimbabwe between 2005 and 2015. We estimated HIV incidence from seroprevalence data using the catalytic and Farrington-2-parameter models. These models were validated at the micro and macro levels using community-based cohort incidence and empirical estimates from UNAIDS EPP/SPECTRUM, respectively. To ascertain the age-time effects of HIV risk, we estimated the age- and time-dependent HIV FOI using current status data. Five generalised additive models were explored, ranging from linear, semi-parametric, non-parametric and nonproportional hazards additive models. The Akaike Information Criteria was used to select the best model. The best model was then used to estimate the age- and time-dependent HIV prevalence and force-of-infection. The OLS model was fitted for each survey year to determine the global relationship between HIV incidence and the significant covariates. The Moran's I spatial autocorrelation method was used to assess the spatial independence of residuals. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used for Hotspot Analysis, which identifies statistically significant hot and cold spots using a set of weighted features. Interpolation maps of HIV incidence were created using Empirical Bayesian Kriging to produce smooth surfaces of HIV incidence for visualisation and data generation at the district level. The Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression method was used to see if the relationship between HIV incidence and covariates varied by district. The software used in the thesis analysis included R software, STATA, Python, ArcGIS and WinBugs. Results: Model goodness of fit test based on the Cox-Snell residuals against the cumulative hazard indicated that the model with interval censoring was the best. On the contrary, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) indicated that the normal survival model was the best. Factors associated with a high risk of HIV infection were being female, the number of sexual partners, and having had an STI in the past year prior to the survey. The machine learning model indicated that the XGBoost model had better performance compared to the other 5 models for both the original data and SMOTE processed data. Identical variablesfor both sexes throughout the three survey years for predicting HIV status were: total lifetime number of sex partners, cohabitation duration (grouped), number of household members, age of household head, times away from home in last 12 months, beating justified and religion. The two most influential variable for both males and females were total lifetime number of sex partners and cohabitation duration (grouped). According to these findings, the catalytic model estimated a higher HIV incidence rate than the Farrington model. Compared to cohort estimates, the estimates were within the observed 95% confidence interval, with 88% and 75% agreement for the catalytic and Farrington models, respectively. The limits of agreement observed in the Bland-Altman plot were narrow for all plots, indicating that our model estimates were comparable to cohort estimates. Compared to UNAIDS estimates, the catalytic model predicted a progressive increase in HIV incidence for males throughout all survey years. Without a doubt, HIV incidence declined with each subsequent survey year for all models. Based on birth year cohort-specific prevalence, the female HIV prevalence peaks at approximately 29 years of age and then declines. Between 15 and 30 years, males have a lower cohort-specific prevalence than females. Male cohort-specific prevalence decreases marginally between ages 33 and 39, then peaks at age 40. In all age categories, the cohort-specific FOI is greater in females than males. Moreover, the cohortspecific HIV FOI peaked at age 22 for females and age 40 for males. A 18-year age gap between the male and female HIV FOI peaks was observed. Throughout the decade covered by this study, the Tsholotsho district remained a 99 % confidence hotspot. The impact of STI, condom use and being married on HIV incidence has been strong in the Eastern parts of Zimbabwe with Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East and Manicaland provinces. From our findings from the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), we observed that Matabeleland North’s HIV incidence rates are driven by wealth index, multiple sex partners, STI and females with older partners. Conclusions: The difference between the results from the Cox-Snell residuals graphical method and the model estimates and AIC value may be due to inadequate methods to test the goodness-of-fit of interval-censored data. We concluded that Model 2 with interval-censoring gave better estimates due to its consistency with the published results from the literature. Even though we consider the interval-censoring model as the superior model with regard to our specific data, the method had its own set of limitations. Programmes targeted at HIV testing could use the machine learning approach to identify high-risk individuals. In addition to other risk reduction techniques, machine learning may aid in identifying those who might require Pre-exposure prophylaxis. Based on our results, older men and younger women resembled patterns of higher HIV prevalence and force-of-infection than younger men and older women. This could be an indication of age-disparate sexual relationships. Therefore, HIV prevention programmes should be targeted more at younger females and older males. Lastly, to improve programmatic and policy decisions in the national HIV response, we recommend the triangulation of multiple methods for incidence estimation and interpretation of results. Multiple estimating approaches should be considered to reduce uncertainty in the estimations from various models. The study spread the message that various factors differ from district to district and over time. The study's findings could be useful to policymakersin terms of resource allocation in the context of public health programs. The findings of this study also highlight the importance of focusing on districts like Tsholotsho, which have consistently had a high HIV burden over time. The main strength of this study is dependent on the quality of the data obtained from the surveys. These data were derived from population-based surveys, which provide more reliable and robust data. Another strength of this study was that we did not restrict our analysis to one method; however, we had the opportunity to determine the risk and incidence of HIV by exploring different methodologies. However, the limited number of variables accessible to us for this study constituted one of its drawbacks. We could not determine the impact of variables including viral load, health care spending, HIV- risk groups, and other HIV-related interventions. Additionally, there were missing values in the data, which required making assumptions about their unpredictability and utilising imputation methods that are inherently flawed. Last but not least, a number of the variables were self-reported and, as a result, were vulnerable to recall bias and social desirability bias.Item Evaluation of implementation fidelity to national guidelines on management of tuberculosis in paediatric patients in Homa-Bay County, Kenya(2022) Kiptoon, Sharon CheronoBackground: Tuberculosis (TB) has been a major public health concern for a long time. Infection in children has not been given a lot of focus as in adults despite children being a vulnerable population with weaker immunity. Prognosis is worse when there is HIV/TB coinfection. The WHO rolled out guidelines for the management of TB in pediatric patients which were adopted by the Kenya Government. Health care workers then implement the guidelines. The Objectives of this study were to measure adherence to national guidelines on the management of Tuberculosis in Pediatric patients (up to 14 years) and to identify moderators affecting implementation fidelity. Methods: A convergent parallel mixed method design was used to collect information from TB treatment sites in Homa bay County. The study was conducted during the months of August, September and October 2018.Quantitative data collected focused on Pediatric patients between ages zero and 14. A checklist based on the guidelines was designed to review 442 records in the clinics for a four-year period (2014 to 2018). Qualitative data was collected through in-depth interviews with eight Sub-County TB coordinators. Interview moderators were based on Carrol et al Implementation Fidelity framework. Summation of "yes" and "No" responses were tallied to get an adherence score for the County as a whole and for the sub-counties individually. The qualitative analysis used the thematic method in excel spreadsheets. Results: Results showed high adherence for the County with a median of 80% (IQR 66.66-93.33%). Four of the sub-counties with normally distributed scored had a mean score of 79% and while the other four had a median score of 80% (66.66 – 93.33). Guidelines which had low implementation fidelity scores were those involving follow up tests i.e., sputum, gene X-pert and X-ray during duration of treatment. In the qualitative aspect good facilitation strategies were found to be in place from both the County and national TB programs. An attitude of fear, lack of knowledge on infection prevention, lack of skills to produce specimens for TB testing and staff shortages affected quality of treatment delivery. The health care workers reported ease in following the guidelines especially with the roll out of new guidelines which simplified diagnosis of TB in children, drugs which are dispersible and in fixed dose combination. Participant’s response to the intervention was poor with both health care workers and patients expressing difficulties with direct observed therapy schedule which required frequent visits and frequent follow up tests. Conclusion and recommendations: In conclusion, implementation fidelity to guidelines on management of tuberculosis is high. Good facilitation strategies is a positive moderator towards achieving high implementation fidelity. The national TB program in Kenya is doing well so far in monitoring the process of guideline implementation once rolled out, however, to be able to achieve the sustainable development goal eradicating TB, further follow up is needed in the facilities to improve the levels of adherence from 80% to 100%. Use of the conceptual framework by Carroll has proved to be a good guide in evaluating healthcare worker’s performance in implementing treatment guidelines It is recommended that health workers should undergo more sensitization on why certain guidelines have been put in place e.g., repeating sputum samples at different phases of treatment in order to improve quality of care. More training on vital procedures e.g., gastric aspirate should also be done to improve health workers' confidence and ease diagnosis of TB at younger age. Further research on implementation fidelity on other evidence based interventions would go a long way to improve service delivery and ensure other program goals are met.Item Exploring healthcare user perspectives on utilisation of prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) services in a high-mobility context in Johannesburg, South Africa(2024) Bisnauth, Melanie AnnIncluded in this thesis are four original papers. The first of four papers explored the impact of the Option B+ Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) programme on the work of healthcare professionals and, investigated pregnant women living with HIV (WLWH) experiences with antiretroviral therapy (ART) for life, to gain insights in ways to better manage the programme. The first paper (Chapter 6) explored the views of both healthcare providers and user experiences with ART for life at the time the SA’s National Department of Health (NDoH) adopted World Health Organisation (WHO) 2013 guidelines on ARVs for HIV treatment and prevention in 2015. This included changes to PMTCT through Option B+ (now known as lifelong treatment). In 2015, little was known about the impact of these guidelines on the work of healthcare workers (HCWs) and no research at the time had focused on how these changes have affected adherence for the patients. Semistructured interviews were conducted with participants and revealed that work had become difficult to manage for all HCWs because of the need to strengthen indicators for tracking patients to decrease the PMTCT loss to follow-up (LTFU); there was inconsistency in delivery of counselling and support services and a need for communication across clinical departments of the hospital that both offered PMTCT services and had to provide care to the mothers and; a lack of compassion and understanding was existent amongst service providers. The overburdened healthcare environment had affected the overall views and experiences of pregnant WLWH going on ART for life. All patient participants (n=55) responded that they chose the fixed dose combination (FDC) pill for life to protect the health of the baby and felt ART for life could be stopped after giving birth, unaware of the long-term benefits for the mother. Although SA national women were interviewed at the time, RMMCH had provided PMTCT care to many migrants and their experiences needed to be heard. Further research was needed on how to strengthen the programme for long term scalability and sustainability for highly mobile WLWH to better adapt PMTCT programming within the healthcare system. Observations of the population of women accessing PMTCT at RMMCH indicated that many migrant WLWH were utilising the services and called for further investigation and lead into the next two phases of the research study. In addition, Paper 2 (Chapter 7) and Paper 3 (Chapter 8) data collection occurred during the COVID19 pandemic. Paper 2 (Chapter 7) investigated HCWs and their experiences in the provision of PMTCT services to WLWH, specifically migrants that were utilising services during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in SA, to provide further insights on the programme. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in SA taking preventative and precautionary measures to control the spread of infection, this inevitably proposed challenges to WLWH, especially migrant women by limiting population mobility with border closures and lockdown restrictions. Semi-structured interviews (n=12) conducted with healthcare iii providers across city, provincial, and national levels explored how COVID-19 impacted the healthcare system and affected highly mobile patients’ adherence and utilisation of PMTCT services. Findings revealed; a need for multi-month dispensing (MMD); fear of contracting COVID-19 leading to the disruption in the continuum of care; added stress to the already existent overburdened clinical environment; mistreatment and xenophobic attitudes towards the migrant HIV population and; three key areas for strengthening PMTCT programme sustainability for migrants. Paper 3 (Chapter 8) investigated the insights of migrant WLWH. Migrant typologies were not predetermined a priori. This research allowed for the different mobility typologies of migrant women utilising PMTCT services in a high mobility context of Johannesburg to first surface from the data. By analysing these experiences, it explored further into how belonging to a specific typology may have affected the health care received and their overall experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interviews with cross-border migrants (n=22) (individuals who move from one country to another) and internal migrants (n=18) (individuals who transcend borders within a country) revealed that women in cross-border migration patterns compared to interprovincial/intraregional mobility; expressed more fear to utilise services due to xenophobic attitudes from HCWs; were unable to receive ART interrupting adherence due to border closures and; relied on short message service (SMS) reminders to adhere to ART during the pandemic. All 40 women struggled to understand the importance of adherence due to the lack of infrastructure to properly educate them following social distancing protocols. COVID-19 amplified existing challenges for cross-border migrant women to utilise PMTCT services. Future pandemic preparedness should be addressed with differentiated service delivery (DSD) including MMD of ARVs, virtual educational care, and language sensitive information, responsive to the needs of mobile women and to assist in alleviating the burden on the healthcare system. The pandemics’ impact on the study timeline, key lessons learnt and, take away messages when conducting research during this unpredictable time are provided in Chapter 4 (Methods) and Chapter 9 (Discussion). It is important to include these reflections because of the impact it had on all participants and the entire PhD process. Paper 4 will be a future policy piece, drawn from Chapter 9, addressing the need for responsiveness from the SA government and NDoH. Chapter 9 brought together collectively the previous papers 1,2, and 3 and drew overall conclusions, recommendations, and a way forward for both policy and programme implementation. This chapter provided the principal findings of the overall thesis and in relation to other studies in the field, as well as implication for policy practice and research. Chapter 9 concludes with the recommendations for future research on WLWH, mobility typologies, service provision of PMTCT and future pandemic preparedness, and the vision for the South African PMTCT programme.Item Exposure and risk assessment of benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylene (btex) in a petrochemical depot at Heidelberg, South Africa(2022) Mdlalose, Richard JohnBackground: The International Labour Organization estimated 2.2 million workers are dying yearly from work-related accidents and occupational diseases, whilst about 270 million suffer serious injuries, and 160 million become ill due to their work. It is further estimated that work-related accidents and diseases cause 4% of annual Global Gross Domestic Product or US $1.25 trillion due to lost working time, workers’ compensation, the interruption of production, and medical expenses. In 2005, the ILO estimated that 440 000 people died throughout the world because of exposure to hazardous chemicals. In 2018 chemicals production was the second largest production sector in the world. Chemicals are indispensable and critical part of life. Their visible positive outcomes are quite palpable. They are well recognized for instance pesticides improve the quality of food production, pharmaceuticals cure illness, cleaning products help to establish hygienic living conditions. Chemicals are key development of final products that make life little easy for human beings, etc. Controlling employees ‘exposure to chemicals and preventing or minimizing emissions remains a significant challenge in workplaces throughout the world. The production, storage, and handling of petrochemical products particularly BTEX emissions are known and associated with potential harm to human and aquatic organisms. Some of the health effects associated with exposure to BTEX are the health effects on hematopoietic system, including pancytopenia. The benzene exposure leads to an acute myelogenous leukemia. The exposure to toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene have been linked to the damaging the central nervous system and irritation of the respiratory system. Benzene and ethylbenzene are confirmed carcinogens (Benzene is classified as a Group 1 and ethylbenzene is a Group 2 B carcinogens). Purpose: To characterize, assess exposure and health risk assessment to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) at the petrochemical depot at Heidelberg in Gauteng, South Africa. Methods: Exposure sampling was done using a MiniRAE 3000 Photoionization detector (PID). The PID (equipment) was calibrated before the commencement of the monitoring program following the manufacturer’s operating manual. The PID equipment was used to collect the BTEX samples. The PID was mounted on a marked tripod stand at 1.5 m above ground and approximately 0.2 m to 0.5 m in the microenvironment (Exposure scenario) of the depot workers (Controllers and/or laboratory assistant) with the probe extended or placed within 30cm of the breathing zone of the depot workers. Sampling was conducted at three different exposure scenarios (workstations) i.e., density huts, laboratory, and during plant equipment cleaning in the plant (strainer removal) over three days period. The sampling started from 08h00 to 17h00. One workstation was sampled per day. The sampling of BTEX per workstation took 30 minutes per hour over ten hours, every hour BTEX was sampled for a duration of 30 minutes and in totality ten samples were collected per 12- hour shift, a total of 30 BTEX samples were collected over the 3 days period. Additionally, the measured BTEX concentrations were used to obtain dose estimates. Data from the equipment was exported to a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. All outliners were removed from the data and a correction factor was applied to derive the final concentration. Thereafter, statistical tests using student F-test and Test were performed to evaluate for significant differences amongst paired comparisons. Results : The highest average BTEX concentrations were measured in the laboratory, followed by density huts and the least was measured during the removal of the strainer (plant equipment cleaning). The activity areas (exposure scenarios) served as direct sources for the BTEX vapours. The average benzene concentrations measured in three activity areas ranged from 469 ppm to 542 ppm. The highest benzene concentration was found to be 542 times higher than the current South African Occupational Exposure Limits of 1ppm. The average toluene concentrations measured ranged from 1335 pm to 1542 pm; the highest toluene concentration was found to be more than 30 times above the South African Occupational Exposure Limits of 50 ppm. The average ethylbenzene concentrations measured ranged from 433 ppm to 500 ppm; the highest concentration was found to be 5 times above the South African Occupational Exposure Limits of 100 ppm. The average xylene concentrations measured ranged from 1372 ppm to 1584 ppm, the highest concentration was found to be more than 15 times above the South African Occupational Exposure Limits of 100 ppm. All the measured BTEX compounds were found to be above their respective South African Occupational Exposure Limits. The cancer risk was determined to be 13 x 10-2 (male) and 10 x 10-2 (female), 14 x 10-2 (male) and 11x 10-2 (female), 16 x 10-2 (male) and 13 x 10-2 (female), 12 x 10-3 (male) and 10 x 10-3 (female) for the workers in the density huts, laboratory, strain remover (plant equipment cleaning), respectively. In all exposure scenarios (male and female) the cancer risk was found to be higher than the acceptable risk levels of 1E-4 . There were 13 males and 10 females in the population of 100 controllers who were likely to develop cancer when working density huts environment. In the laboratory work environment, 14 males and 11 females in a population of 100 controllers were likely to develop cancer, whereas 16 males and 13 female laboratory workers were likely to develop cancer in a population of 100 laboratory workers, and during plant equipment cleaning 12 males and 10 female controllers were likely to develop cancer in a population of 1000. Therefore, the potential of developing cancer was heightened by working in the laboratory and density huts. The risk of the number of employees who were likely to develop cancer was reduced when doing plant equipment cleaning. In all three activity areas, cancer risk for males was higher than for their female counterparts. This finding denotes that male were more vulnerable than females even though the exposure concentration is the same. The higher number of males who were likely to develop cancer in all the activity areas were influenced by two factors i.e., males have a shorter average life expectancy and higher average body weight versus their females’ counterparts. A hazard quotient was used to determine the non-carcinogenic health effects, a hazard quotient of greater than 1 was used as a reference value. A value greater than 1 denoted a higher possibility that depot workers will get health effects from exposure to the Toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (TEX). The hazard quotient for males ranged from 4.6 to 577.5, the highest hazard quotient was more than 577 times above the HQ reference value. The lowest was at density huts for xylene and the highest was at the laboratory for a chemist for xylene. The hazard quotient for females ranged from 3.15 to 399.00, the highest hazard quotient was more than 399 times above the HQ reference value. The lowest was at density for xylene and the highest was at the laboratory for laboratory assistant. From the results, both males and females had a hazard quotient far above 1 which means health effects arising from TEX exposure were anticipated. Conclusion: The results showed highest constant BTEX concentrations in the three exposure scenarios over the 12 hours shift. The BTEX emissions were generated by activities that were performed by the depot workers. Highest BTEX concentrations were measured at laboratory, followed by density huts and the least was measured during the removal of the strainer (plant equipment cleaning). The lack of effective vapour recovery system and natural ventilation in the laboratory and in density huts also contributed to the high BTEX concentrations measured in these areas. Individual BTEX component results measured in the three activity areas indicated concentrations that were far above the South African Occupational Exposure Limits for individual BTEX. The cancer risk score was found to be far above the reference USEPA cancer risk value and denoting that depot workers were likely to develop cancer. The hazard quotient for the three exposure scenarios was also found to be greater than the reference value of 1 which indicates the potential to develop non-carcinogenic health effects due to exposure in three exposure scenarios. Recommendations: The following recommendations are made to assist management of the depot to control employees’ exposure to BTEX emissions per activity area: Density huts: The practicality of introducing a vapour recovery system on workbenches to extract the VOCs generated during sample collection and from density measuring jugs should be investigated or alternatively, the introduction of an online fuels and density analysis should be investigated or the practicality of introducing sample bombs to collect fuel samples should be investigated. Keep the windows opened to promote an ingress of fresh air and allow BTEX emissions to escape. A practicality of introducing a controlled mechanical ventilation to blow vapours away from the breathing zone of the depot workers should be investigated. Laboratory: The practicality of automating or modifying the GC equipment in the laboratory to be able to conduct an online petrochemical analysis to control employees’ exposure should be investigated. The tasks that require rinsing of testing tubes with fuels, refilling of the testing tubes, and discarding of superfluous samples should be performed under controlled conditions, the practicality of introducing a vapour recovering system to control vapours emissions should be investigated. The current practice of keeping the decanting drum open should be discontinued to prevent the accumulation of vapours in the laboratory or alternatively, it should be kept under a vapour recovery system. The practicality of keeping the retained fuel samples under the vapour recovery system in the laboratory storage should also be investigated. The fume hood and two extraction units should be serviced on a regular basis. Cleaning of plant equipment (strainer removal): The practicality of automating the removal and lifting the strainer to be cleaned to increase the distance between the strainer and receptors (controllers) should be investigated. The practicality of putting the clogged-up strainer in degreaser bath to remove and clean the strainer with the view of automating the task to prevent employees ‘exposure to VOC emissions. Recommendations applicable to all activity areas: Employees exposed to BTEX including the other petrochemicals should undergo a risk-based medical surveillance program including biological monitoring to evaluate the efficacy of the existing controls and as part of a preventative medical surveillance program. Provide information, instruction, and training at regular interval about: - petrochemicals (BTEX) that employees are potentially exposed to at workplace and duties of persons who are likely to be exposed to VOCs vapour. The names and potential harmfulness of the BTEX at the workplace and the employees who are likely to be exposed. Significant findings of the BTEX exposure assessment (an occupational health risk assessment survey). Information on how to access the relevant safety data sheets and information that each part of an SDS provides. The work practices and procedures that must be followed for the use, handling, storage, transportation, spillage, and disposal of samples, in emergency situations, as well as for good housekeeping and personal hygiene. The necessity of personal exposure air sampling, biological monitoring, and medical surveillance; The need for engineering controls and how to use and maintain them. The need for personal protective equipment, including respiratory protective equipment, and its use and maintenance. The precautions that must be taken by an employee to protect themselves against health risks associated with exposure, including wearing and using protective clothing and respiratory protective equipment. The necessity, correct use equipment, maintenance and potential of safety facilities and engineering control measures provided. Supervisor/Line Manager must give written instructions of the procedures to be followed in the event of spillages, leakages, or any similar emergency situations to employees. Once the aforementioned information, instruction and training have been provided, enforce the wearing of the prescribed PPE including ABEK respirator and no employee should be allowed to enter and remain in respiratory zone without the prescribed PPE and respiratory protection equipment (ABEK respirator).Item Facilitators and barriers influencing implementation of interventions to eliminate silicosis in the South African mining industry(2024) Patrick, Chinyelu JosephineBackground Silicosis is an occupational disease that affects workers, their life, livelihoods, families and communities. Poor workers’ health and wellness impact negatively on company efficiency, productivity and profits leading to major economic losses to the whole society. Silicosis is an added burden to the health service in South Africa. The disease is caused by exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) dust. In the South African mining industry, there is an increased risk of tuberculosis among mineworkers exposed to RCS dust and those who develop silicosis. Silicosis is incurable but preventable and RCS dust control is the key. Extensive efforts have been deployed globally and nationally toward the elimination of silicosis. In South Africa, the mining industry set milestones for RCS dust reduction and silicosis elimination by 2013, now extended to 2024. The National Programme for the Elimination of Silicosis in South Africa has only been partially successful due to poor implementation of interventions, the complexity of interventions, and non-compliance with enacted policies. This may account for the fact that novice, current and former mineworkers are still being diagnosed with silicosis in the country. This study aimed to describe the existing implementation strategies and explore the facilitators and barriers to implementation of silicosis elimination interventions in the mining industry, South Africa. Methods A cross-sectional exploratory qualitative study was conducted using in-depth interviews among 18 participants selected purposively based on knowledge and experience in the mining industry. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) guided the development of the interview guides, data collection and analysis. Framework analysis was conducted and the transcribed data were coded using a hybrid of inductive and deductive coding to derive themes and sub-themes. Results 18 participants consisting of representatives from DMRE, Minerals Council South Africa, MHSC, MOSH, mining companies, unions and an academic researcher were interviewed. The five main themes identified in this study were intervention-related factors, implementation related factors, human-related factors, health-related factors and contextual factors. The strategies identified in the study were found to be part of the facilitators for implementation. The facilitators identified in the study were technological advancement, communication and dissemination of strategies, the Minerals Council’s role, industry milestones, legislation, enforcement of regulations, monitoring and evaluation, and compensation benefits. The major barriers were the lack of implementation practices and inadequate enforcement. Conclusion In the study, CFIR framework was used to guide a systematic process that looked at the strengths and weaknesses of silicosis elimination in the larger mines under the leadership of the Minerals Council South Africa. A lot of work has been done in terms of communication, legislation, enforcement, provision of interventions and efforts from all stakeholders. There a is need to improve communication and feedback with mineworkers on the message of silica dust reduction, enforcement of legislation and policies.Item Factors associated with burnout among healthcare workers in a rural context, South Africa: a cross-sectional study(2024) Moses, AlexandraBackground. Healthcare providers (HCP) were at risk of burnout related to high levels of occupational stress in the workplace. However, there was little research in rural and primary care settings in subSaharan Africa. This study aimed to describe the individual and workplace factors of public sector HCP working in Mpumalanga province, their experience of burnout and to examine the factors associated with burnout.. Methods. A quantitative study design using a cross-sectional survey was employed. The research site was Nkomazi Local Municipality in Mpumalanga Province. All HCPs (n=1 139) working at the primary healthcare clinics, community health centres and district hospitals were invited to participate in the survey. Data were collected between April and September 2022 via a selfadministered, electronic questionnaire. A demographic and occupational questionnaire, the General Help Seeking Questionnaire and the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) indicator tool were used to assess individual and workplace factors. Burnout was assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory– Human Services Survey. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with burnout. Results. Just over a quarter (n=302; 26.5%) of HCP participated. Participants were aged between 23 and 61 years, mostly female (n=252; 83.44%) and nurses (n=235; 77.81%). Most participants (n=215; 71.19%) would seek help if they had an emotional problem, most likely from mental health professionals, and least likely from traditional healers. Increased work-related stress was present due to the demands and roles of HCP. High levels of burnout were observed for Emotional Exhaustion (Median score 26 (IQR: 18)) and Personal Accomplishment (median score 29 (IQR: 9)) but not for Depersonalisation (median score 7 (IQR: 9)). On univariate regression analysis, the individual factor of being married and the workplace factor of increased years of experience were statistically significant to all three subscales of burnout. HSE factors of demands, control, management support, peer support, relationships, role and change were highly statistically significant to Emotional Exhaustion, Depersonalisation and Personal Accomplishment. On multivariate regression analysis, no individual demographic, occupational or HSE factors were significantly associated with Emotional Exhaustion or Depersonalisation. Personal Accomplishment ii improved by 0.49 (95%CI: 0.10-0.89) for every one point increase towards improved work demands, by 0.84 (95%CI: 0.01-1.67) for every point score increase towards improved management support, and by 1.19 (95%CI: 0.48-1.90) for every point score increase towards having improved role. Conclusions. During 2022, HCPs working in a rural area in South Africa displayed high levels of burnout for Emotional Exhaustion and Personal Accomplishment but not for Depersonalisation. Improvements in work demands, managerial support and role were significantly associated with an increase in the experience of Personal Accomplishment. Further research is recommended to better understand the nuances of the work environment. Solutions should be explored and implemented to prevent burnout, with special consideration given to work demands, managerial support and role clarity as part of the effort to retain rural HCP in the public health system.Item Implementation of universal health coverage in South Africa: formative effects, perceived quality of healthcare and modelling of health service utilisation indicators in a national health insurance pilot district(2024) Mukudu, HillaryBackground- According to the World Health Organisation, member countries should attain universal health coverage by 2030. To achieve this goal, South Africa introduced the National Health Insurance programme in 2012. Since then, the first phase of the pilot programme has been implemented in Tshwane and ten other country districts. Historically, no other health system reform in South Africa has generated more interest than the National Health Insurance. This 15-year preliminary plan and pilot received optimism and criticism depending on several factors. The pilot programme focusing on primary health care was implemented along with several other interventions. The components of the intervention included setting up: ward-based primary healthcare outreach teams, integrated school health programmes, district clinical specialist teams, centralised chronic medicine dispensing and distribution programmes, health patient registration systems, stock visibility systems, and contracting of private non-specialised (general) medical practitioners to provide services in public primary health care facilities. These interventions were envisaged to improve healthcare quality at the primary healthcare level and offset the burden of non-emergency (secondary) care at the hospital outpatient level. However, studies have yet to be done to determine population-level formative effects on primary and non-emergency secondary healthcare indicators, their relationships, and interdependencies. These data are needed to forecast and develop measures to meet the possible increase in health service utilisation. In addition, this information is essential to guide the possible scale-up of South Africa's National Health Insurance mechanism. Such guidance may be in setting benchmarks to monitor policy implementation, determine facility staffing, the package of health services, training needs, budget for medicines and consumables, and other resource allocation. Aim- Therefore, this study first aimed to determine the formative effects of implementing the Medical Practitioners' contracting of the National Health Insurance pilot program on primary healthcare utilisation indicators measured at both primary and non-emergency secondary levels of care. A comparison was made between Tshwane national health insurance pilot district and Ekurhuleni district, which is not a pilot district. Furthermore, the study aimed to determine the relationships between healthcare utilisation indicators and their interdependencies and then provide a forecast for 2025. Methods- This quasi-experimental and ecological study used selected primary health care and outpatient department indicators in the District Health Information System monthly reports between January 2010 and December 2019 for the Tshwane district and Ekurhuleni district. Thus, to determine the formative effects on primary healthcare utilisation indicators, the selected period was from June 2010 to May 2014. A total of 48-time periods (months), with 24 before (June 2010 to May 2012) and 24 after (June 2012 to May 2014) implementation of Medical Practitioners contracting of the National Health Insurance pilot programme. Similarly, June 2012 to May 2014 was the selected period to determine the effects on the perceived quality of care. A total of 24 months, with 12 before (June 2012 to May 2013) and 12 after (June 2013 to May 2014) implementation of the Medical Practitioners' contracting of the National Health Insurance pilot programme. To determine the relationship and interdependence between Primary Health Care and Outpatient Department indicators and forecasts for 2025, 113 time periods (quarters) were selected. There were 28 quarters before and 84 quarters after implementing the National Health Insurance pilot programme. Similar methodological approaches were used to determine the effects of Medical Practitioners contracting in the National Health Insurance pilot programme on Primary Healthcare utilisation indicators and perceived healthcare quality. All study data types used in the thesis were continuous; thus, they were initially evaluated descriptively using means (standard deviations) and medians (interquartile ranges). The range was evaluated using minimum and maximum values. An Independent t-test assuming unequal variances was used to compare the means of Outpatient Department indicators in determining the effect of Medical Practitioners contracting in the National Health Insurance pilot programme on the perceived quality of healthcare. Single- and multiple-group (controlled) interrupted time series analysis was used to determine the effect of the National Health Insurance pilot project implementation on the utilisation of selected primary and non-emergency outpatient department indicators and perceived healthcare quality. A different methodological approach was used to determine the interdependencies and relationships between selected primary healthcare and non-emergency outpatient department indicators and their forecasts for 2025. Initially, data were evaluated descriptively using means (standard deviations) and medians (interquartile ranges) and the range was evaluated using minimum and maximum values. Prior to the development of the vector error correction model, several steps were taken. Firstly, a natural log transformation of all time series data was done to enhance additivity, linearity, and validity. Additionally, the level of lags at which variables were interconnected or endogenously obtained was determined due to the sensitivity of causality. Furthermore, the stationarity of time series data was determined using both graphical means and the Augmented Dick Fuller test to confirm the stability of each time series. Finally, cointegration was determined using the Johansen cointegration test to check for the correlation between two or more nonstationary series. After developing the Vector Error Correction Model, the Granger causality test was done to determine whether one series is helpful for forecasting another. Then the Vector Error Correction Model relationships between variables of selected primary healthcare and non-emergency outpatient department indicators were used to forecast the utilisation of both levels of services by 2025. Results- The findings showed changes in primary healthcare indicators measured at primary and nonemergency secondary levels before and after contracting private medical practitioners of the National Health Insurance pilot programme. The study also confirmed the influence of selected primary health care and outpatient department headcounts on each other by finding four cointegration relationships between the variables. There were differences between single-group and controlled interrupted time series analysis findings for Tshwane district and Ekurhuleni district considered independently and collectively on the utilisation of primary health care services. Thus, the positive impact observed in primary healthcare utilisation post-June 2012 is not attributable to the implementation of the Medical Practitioners' contracting of the National Health Insurance pilot programme. Conversely, there were similarities between single-group and controlled interrupted time series analysis findings for Tshwane district and Ekurhuleni district considered independently and collectively on the perceived quality of primary healthcare. In the interpretation of this finding, the similarities indicated that implementing the Medical Practitioners' contracting of the National Health Insurance pilot programme positively influenced the perception of a better quality of primary healthcare in the Tshwane district. Regarding primary healthcare indicators, there were differences between single-group and controlled interrupted time series analysis. Single-group interrupted time series analysis showed a 65% and 32% increase in the number of adults remaining on anti-retroviral therapy in Tshwane and Ekurhuleni districts, respectively (relative risk [RR]: 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.64–1.66; p < 0.0001 and RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.32–1.33; p < 0.0001, respectively). However, controlled interrupted time series analysis did not reveal any differences in any of the post-intervention parameters. Furthermore, single-group interrupted time series analysis showed a 2% and 6% increase in the number of clients seen by a professional nurse in the Tshwane and Ekurhuleni districts, respectively (RR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02; p < 0.0001 and RR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.05–1.07; p < 0.0001, respectively). However, controlled interrupted time series analysis did not show any differences in any of the postintervention parameters. In addition, single-group interrupted time series analysis revealed that there was a 2% decrease and 1% increase in the primary healthcare headcounts for clients aged ≥5 years in Tshwane and Ekurhuleni district (RR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97–0.98; p < 0.0001 and RR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02; p < 0.0001, respectively). Similarly, there was a 2% decrease and a 5% increase in the total primary healthcare headcounts in the Tshwane district and Ekurhuleni districts, respectively (RR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97–0.98; p < 0.001 and RR: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.04–1.06, p < 0.0001, respectively). However, controlled interrupted time-series analysis revealed no difference in all parameters before and after intervention in terms of total primary healthcare headcounts and primary healthcare headcounts for clients aged ≥5 years. Regarding secondary non-emergency outpatient department headcounts, single-group and controlled interrupted time series analyses revealed similar findings. Despite these similarities, single-group interrupted time series analysis showed a disparate increase in the outpatient department not referred headcounts, which were lower in the Tshwane district (3 387 [95%CI 901, 5 873] [p = 0.010]) than in Ekurhuleni district (5 399 [95% CI: 1 889, 8 909] [p = 0.004]). Conversely, while there was no change in outpatient department referred headcounts in the Tshwane district, there was an increase in headcounts in the Ekurhuleni district (21 010 [95% CI: 5 407, 36 611] [p = 0.011]). Regarding the outpatient department not referred rate, there was a decrease in the Tshwane district (-1.7 [95% CI: -2.1 to -1.2] [p < 0.0001]), but not in the Ekurhuleni district. Controlled interrupted time series analysis showed differences in headcounts for outpatient department follow-up (24 382 [95% CI: 14 643, 34 121] [p < 0.0001]), the outpatient department not referred (529 [95% CI: 29, 1 029 [p = 0.038]), and outpatient department not referred rate (-1.8 [95% CI: -2.2 to -1.1] [p < 0.0001]) between Tshwane the reference district and Ekurhuleni district. Four common long-run trends were found in the relationships and dependencies between primary healthcare indicators measured at the primary healthcare level and the non-emergency secondary level of care needed to forecast future utilisation. First, a 10% increase in outpatient departments not referred headcounts resulted in a 42% (95% CI: 28-56, p < 0.0001) increase in new primary healthcare diabetes mellitus clients, 231% (95% CI: 156-307, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare clients seen by a public medical practitioner, 37% (95% CI: 28-46, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare clients on ART, and 615% (95% CI: 486- 742, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare clients seen by a professional nurse. Second, a 10% increase in outpatient department referrals resulted in an 8% (95% CI: 3-12, p < 0.0001) increase in new primary healthcare diabetes mellitus clients, a 73% (95% CI: 51-95, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for clients seen by a medical professional, a 25% (95% CI: 23-28, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for clients on ART, and a 44% (95% CI: 4-71, p = 0.026) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for clients seen by a professional nurse. Third, a 10% increase in outpatient department follow-up headcounts resulted in a 12% (95% CI: 8-16, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for new diabetes mellitus, 67% (95% CI: 45-89, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for clients seen by public medical practitioners, 22% (95% CI: 19-24, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for clients on ART, and 155% (95% CI: 118-192, p < 0.0001) increase in primary healthcare headcounts for clients seen by a professional nurse. Fourth, a 10% increase in headcounts for total primary healthcare clients resulted in a 0.4% (95% CI: 0.1-0.8, p < 0.0001) decrease in primary healthcare headcounts for new diabetes clients. Based on these relationships and dependencies, the outpatient department follow-up headcounts would increase from 337 945 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 534 412 (95% CI: 327 682–741 142) in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the total primary healthcare headcounts would only marginally decrease from 1 345 360 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 1 166 619 (95% CI: 633 650–1 699 588) in the fourth quarter of 2025. Conclusion -The study findings suggested that improvements in primary health care indicators in National Health Insurance pilot districts could not be attributed to the implementation of contracting private medical practitioners but were likely a result of other co-interventions and transitions in the district. However, it might have resulted in an improved perception of quality of care at primary health care facilities, evidenced by a reduction in the self-referral rate for nonemergency hospital outpatient departments. The study also confirmed the influence of selected primary healthcare and non-emergency outpatient department headcounts on each other by finding four common long-run trends of relationships. Based on these relationships and trends, outpatient department follow-up headcounts are forecasted to increase by two-thirds. Conversely, the total headcount for primary healthcare clients seen by a professional nurse will marginally decrease. Recommendations- Based on the study findings, the bidirectional referral between primary and non-emergency secondary levels of care in the Tshwane district should be strengthened to offset the burden of care at outpatient departments of district hospitals. Thus, the district health information system should include a down-referral indicator to monitor this activity. With the implementation of National Health Insurance, there is a need to improve the perception of quality of care at the primary healthcare level through appropriate training, recruitment, and placement of medical practitioners. Similarly, professional nurses, the core providers of primary healthcare services, should be supported and capacitated in line with the epidemiological transition.Item Initial loss to follow up among tuberculosis patients: the role of Ward-Based Outreach Teams and short message service (SMS) technology(2024) Mwansa-Kambafwile, Judith Reegan MulubwaIntroduction: In South Africa, tuberculosis (TB) is still a serious public health problem with rates of initial loss to follow up (initial LTFU) varying between 14.9% and 22.5%. Poor clinician-patient communication resulting in lack of clarity on next steps, patients not prioritizing their healthcare and patients not knowing that their results are ready at the clinic are some reasons for initial LTFU. This PhD aimed to assess the effectiveness of Ward-based Outreach Teams (WBOTs) or Short Message Service (SMS) technology in reducing TB initial LTFU in Johannesburg, South Africa between 2018 and 2020. Methods: A mixed methods approach comprising two phases (formative and intervention) was employed. In the formative phase, secondary data were analyzed for frequency distributions to determine the rates of initial LTFU in the study area. In addition, in-depth interviews with WBOT Managers and with TB Program Managers were conducted to determine their perceived reasons for TB initial LTFU. In the intervention phase, two interventions (WBOTs/SMS technology) were tested using a 3 arm randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing each of the interventions to standard of care (SOC). The WBOTs delivered paper slip reminders while SMS intervention entailed sending reminder SMS messages to patients as soon as TB results were available. Chi square statistics, Poisson regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to analyze the data. The RCT was followed by in-depth interviews with WBOT members and with some of the trial participants who had tested TB positive and had received reminder messages. To identify themes in the qualitative studies, both inductive and deductive coding were used in the hybrid analytic approach. Results: From the formative phase, the TB initial LTFU among the 271 patients was found to be 22.5% and the overall time to treatment initiation was 9 days. Interviews with managers revealed that relocation and “shopping around” were the main patient related factors found as the reasons for initial LTFU. Health system related factors for initial LTFU were communication and staff rotations. In terms of TB related work, WBOTs screened household members for TB and referred them for TB testing. The services of the WBOT/TB programs which were found to be integrated were: referral of symptomatic patients for TB testing and adherence monitoring in patients already on TB treatment. There was minimal involvement of the WBOTs in the treatment initiation of patients diagnosed with TB. Findings from the trial were that 11% (314/2850) of the participants tested positive for TB. The 314 TB patients were assigned to one of the 3 arms (SOC=104, WBOTs=105, and SMS=105). Overall, 255 patients (81.2%) were initiated treatment across all study arms. More patients in the SMS arm were initiated TB treatment than in the SOC arm (92/105; 88% and 81/104; 78% respectively; P=0.062). Patients in the SMS arm also had a shorter time to treatment initiation than those in the SOC arm (4 days versus 8 days; P 8 days; P<0.001). A comparison of the WBOTs arm and the SOC arm showed similar proportions initiated on treatment (45/62; 73% and 44/61; 72% respectively) as well as similar times to treatment initiation. Findings from the post-trial interviews showed that delivery of the reminder paper slips by the WBOTs during the trial was something new, but possible to incorporate into their daily schedule. The patient interviews revealed that various emotions (happiness, fear, worry etc.) were experienced upon receipt of the reminder messages. Participants also reported that receiving the reminder message did influence their decision to go back to collect the results. Conclusion: Reminder messages to patients are beneficial in TB treatment initiation. National TB programs can use SMS messaging because it is an affordable and feasible method. Although implementation of the WBOTs intervention was suboptimal, findings show that with proper integration of TB and WBOT programs, WBOTs have the potential to contribute to improved treatment initiation.Item Modelling space and time patterns of HIV interventions on HIV burden in a high priority district in South Africa(2024) Otwombe, Lucy ChimoyiBackground: Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality (EMM) collects monthly data from primary healthcare facilities on the HIV programmes to inform its HIV response. To study patterns of HIV burden and uptake of HIV services at a population level, the application of small area analysis offered a powerful epidemiological approach while investigating on a geographical scale, the risk, and confounding factors of certain health outcomes. This PhD thesis was aimed at highlighting and understanding the heterogeneity of HIV prevalence and selected HIV outcomes at a ward-level between 2012 and 2016. Materials and Methods: Materials and Methods: A mixed-methods approach using the HIV result chain logical framework was applied to several sources of data. Firstly, data from a National HIV Survey, the South African National Census analysed using Bayesian techniques in WINBUGS to provide an epidemiological profile of the risk factors for HIV prevalence, sub-optimal condom use and non-ART use. Secondly, a model of time and space using R-INLA applied to routinely collected HIV program data (clinical and laboratory) assessed the predictors of viral load suppression (VLS) [<1000 copies/mL (WHO) and <400 copies/mL (SA)]. Forecasting of VLS (five years post-2016) was conducted using ARIMA models. Lastly, a thematic analysis using the social cognitive theory framework on in-depth interviews with patients and healthcare staff was conducted to understand factors influencing uptake of selected HIV services in different geographical settings Results and findings: There were several clusters of high HIV infection, sub-optimal condom, non-ART use and VLS in EMM driven by different risk factors discussed in this PhD thesis. The proportion of VLS increased from 2012-2015 and decreased in 2016, and heterogeneity was observed at ward-level. As the female population and ART initiation rates increased at ward-level, VLS increased. However, this observed relationship was strong in some areas and weak in others. Lastly negative sequalae including stigma from healthcare workers and communities prevented optimum uptake of HIV services, particularly in women. Social support, availability of services and differentiated care encourage utilisation of HIV services. Conclusions: Findings highlighted the heterogenous nature of health events in EMM and are likely to inform targeted interventions to improve HIV programmes at ward-level towards achieving the 95-95-95 targets.Item Occupational noise exposure among groundskeepers at a public university in Gauteng, South Africa(2024) Mokone, MosesBackground- There is sufficient scientific evidence indicating that excessive and prolonged exposure to noise causes noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), also known as permanent hearing loss and other non-auditory effects such as sleep disturbance, hypertension, and interference with the nervous and cardiovascular systems. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that NIHL costs approximately 0.2% to 2% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the developed nations in terms of compensation and economic burden on society. It also estimated that more than 16% of the NIHL in adults is attributable to occupational noise exposure. Although preventable, NIHL is one of the most widespread irreversible occupational disease worldwide and thus was declared as a serious occupational hazard. Worldwide, occupational noise exposure is widely regulated and most countries, including South Africa, use 85 dBA as the occupational exposure limit for noise exposure and has adopted the 3-dB exchange rate, with the exception of the US and Brazil, amongst others, which use the 5-dB exchange rate rule. Exchange Rate is the increase in noise level that corresponds to a doubling of the noise level. A few countries around the world such as the US, Japan and India use 90 dBA as a regulated limit for noise exposure. Acute hearing loss can also occur suddenly if a person is exposed to very high impact noise (above 140 dBC) for a short duration such as explosion and gun shots. Research shows that 8-hour average daily noise exposure levels between 75 dBA and 80 dBA are unlikely to cause hearing loss. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO 1999) “Acoustics - Determination of Occupational Noise Exposure and Estimation of Noise-Induced Hearing Impairment” provides damage risk criterion information that enable the prediction of NIHL at various audiometric frequencies and for varying exposure durations. Attempts to limit human exposure to noise are based on damage risk criterion. For example, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) estimates a risk of NIHL after a 40-year working lifetime of 1% at 80 dBA, 8% at 85 dBA, and 25% at 90 dBA. This shows that the 85 dBA limit does not guarantee safety, since 85 dBA is already indication 8% excess risk. The WHO has indicated that workers employed in sectors such as manufacturing, transportation, construction, mining, utility, agriculture and military have the highest risk of 2 | P a g e NIHL. In the Services sector, which include Garden and Landscaping services, the extensive use of powered lawn maintenance machines results in widespread exposure to high levels of noise. The employees employed in the garden and landscaping sector such as groundskeepers, are in charge of maintaining general landscape of public and private areas such as sporting grounds, community parks and learning institutions grounds. Their main tasks involve a variety of outdoor activities such as clearing leaves, mowing lawns, cutting trees, trimming hedges, applying fertilizer, removing dead or unwanted plants and other general garden maintenance work. Noise exposure, which is one of the main health hazards that severely affect the health of these employees during operation of powered lawn maintenance machines such as leaf blowers, riding and push lawnmowers, brush-cutters and chainsaws can be a significant source of workplace noise exposure among groundskeepers. Although the literature on occupational noise exposure has concentrated on large industrial sectors (mining, construction, manufacturing and transportation), the problem extends to smaller operations such as lawn maintenance. Recent literature suggests that noise generating activities in small-scale operations, such as lawn maintenance, use high noise emitting machinery. Purpose- The purpose of this study was to evaluate occupational noise exposure levels of groundskeepers who operate different types of powered lawn maintenance machines at three campuses of a public university in Gauteng and estimate their risk of NIHL. Methods- A quantitative, cross-sectional study design conducted among groundskeepers following a nonprobability convenience sampling strategy was used. Personal and area noise exposure levels were evaluated in accordance with the South African National Standard (SANS) Code of Practice 10083:2013. The measurements for personal noise were conducted using a type 2 Casella dBbadges (personal noise dosimeters), which were placed on the groundskeepers’ shoulders, close to the ear adjudged as receiving the highest noise levels covering sufficient time representative of daily (task-based) exposure. Area noise measurements were performed using a type 1 Quest integrating sound level meter (SLM), which was mounted on a tripod stand and placed at approximately 1.5 meters above the floor and 1 m from the noise generating machine. In each measurement position, one-minute measurements were completed, and Aweighted equivalent noise levels (LAeq) were recorded. To ensure accuracy of measurements, the noise measuring instruments were calibrated before and after each series of measurements v using a calibrated portable acoustic calibrator as per the manufacturer’s instructions. The SLM and personal noise dosimeters (PNDs) were calibrated using a type 1 acoustic calibrator (Model QC-10, Quest Technologies, USA) and type 2 acoustic calibrator (Casella CEL 110/2, Regent House, Bedford, U.K) respectively. No significant shift in calibration was detected for any individual measurement. All the noise measuring instruments were externally calibrated by a South African National Accreditation System (SANAS) 17025 accredited laboratory. A questionnaire constructed by the primary researcher was utilized to record groundskeepers’ demographic information, work processes pertaining to tasks performed and noise exposure levels, including certain elements of hearing conservation practices such as information and training, audiometric testing, and use of hearing protective devices (HPDs). A total of 18 PND measurements and 17 area noise measurements were conducted at three university campuses i.e. Campus A, Campus B and Campus C. The noise measurements were conducted over a period of five (5) days (1-3 September 2021 and 3-4 November 2021). Data/ readings from the noise monitoring instruments were manually recorded on predesigned field sheets and manually entered onto Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Thereafter, a statistical analysis using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was carried out to determine whether a significant difference existed between the mean personal and area noise exposure levels measured at three university campuses. Formulas from the SANS 10083 standard were used to calculate measured noise levels for comparison with the regulated noise rating limit of 85 dBA using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet Results- The results of this study showed that majority, 78% (14 out 18), of groundskeepers’ personal noise exposure levels (task-based) in the three campuses exceeded the legislated noise rating limit of 85 dBA, thus increasing groundskeepers’ risk to NIHL. Groundskeepers in campus A were exposed to the highest eight-hour equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level (LAeq, 8h) with mean noise levels of 91.5 dBA ±4.7, followed by campus B and C with mean noise levels of 89.1 dBA ±4.0 and 86.9 dBA ±2.9 respectively. Peak noise exposure levels (LCpeak) measured as part of personal noise exposure in the three campuses ranged from 115.6 dB to 140.0 dB. These excessive peak noise exposures are attributed to the types of machines used during lawn maintenance activities. The overall statistical difference in the mean personal noise exposure levels (LAeq, 8h) and peak levels (LCpeak) between the three campuses were found to be not significant for both the LAeq, 8h (P = 0.304) and LCpeak (P = 0.607). vi Furthermore, majority, 71% (12 out 17), of area noise levels measured on specific lawn maintenance machines had equivalent continous A-weigted sound pressure level (LAeq) above the noise rating limit of 85 dBA. Machines measured in campus A had the highest area noise levels (LAeq) with mean noise levels of 98.8 dBA ±6.9, followed by campus B and C with mean noise levels of 92.9 dBA ±8.3 and 91.6 dBA ±5.1 respectively. The overall statistical difference in the mean area noise levels (LAeq) between the three campuses were found to be not significant (P = 0.135). The findings of this study demonstrated that the study participants comprised a total of 18 males across the 3 campuses, with mean working experience in the current job of five (5) years (ranging 2 – 11 years). Majority (9 out of 18 or 50%) of the participants were aged between 36–45, while only 16% (3 out of 18) were above the age of 56. The distribution of the participants according to their education was 100% secondary school. This may have positive implications for understanding of information and training material used for noise exposure awareness. The results of groundskeepers’ awareness to certain elements of hearing conservation program, with specific focus to information and training, audiometric testing, and use of hearing protection devices (HPDs) revealed that majority (95%) of groundskeepers were not trained about the noise rating limit and its meaning as required by Regulation 4 of the NIHL Regulations. Furthermore, it was found that, 50% of groundskeepers indicated that they never received information and training on the health effects of noise exposure while working at the university. In terms of audiometric testing, 78% of groundskeepers indicated that they were given audiometric testing while employed at the university. The study further indicated that majority (63%) of groundskeepers reported that, they use hearing protection devices (HPDs) while operating noisy machines. Notably, 90% of groundskeepers reported that, there is no one who is checking and supervising if they wore HPDs while operating lawn maintenance machines. The analysis further shows that, 47% of groundskeepers reported that, their HDPs were not comfortable when worn. Conclusion- The findings of this study have highlighted that, although the university had hearing conservation programs in place, there were shortcomings in the implementation of some elements of the program, in particular with regard to information and training, noise exposure monitoring and use of hearing protection devices. Most groundskeepers were exposed to noise vii levels exceeding the noise rating limit of 85 dBA and were at risk of acquiring NIHL. When considering the peak noise levels, the results of the study showed that there was only one groundskeeper from campus A who was exposed to noise levels exceeding the peak limit of 140 dBC. In all cases, employees should never be exposed to peak noise levels in excess of 140 dBC. Prevention, by reducing the noise exposure via engineering measures should be prioritized. The peak noise exposure limit of 140 dBC is regulated in the European Union Physical Agents (noise) Directive 2003/10/EC (2003) as an upper exposure action value. This EU noise directive is adopted by most European countries. Currently in the South African NIHL Regulations and SANS 10083 standard, peak noise exposure levels are not regulated. No significant differences were found in the mean area and personal noise levels measured in the three campuses. However, the use of certain machines such as backpack leaf blower and chainsaw were shown to be associated high noise exposure levels. Therefore, it is essential to ensure that noise levels on the lawn maintanance machines are significantly reduced by implementing good maintenance practices and buy quiet program. Information and training interventions should be aligned to target potentially exposed groundskeepers to modify their perceptions, noise control adherence approaches and continual motivation to sustain and improve an implemented hearing conservation program. This is the first study in South Africa to evalaute occupational noise exposure among groundskeepers in a public univeristy. Findings from this study may contribute to existing knowledge on occupational noise exposure among groundskeepers and may be investigated by other universities where lawn mainteance machines are used. However, the findings of this study may not be generalized to other universities because the study was only conducted in one university. Lessons drawn from this study are that there is a greater need to enhance hearing conservation measures in gardening and landscaping services within the universities.Item Percentage positivity and determinants of cytomegalovirus infection and immunity in the public sector of south africa, 2007–2021: a time series analysis(2024) Mhlabane, Nelisiwe LynnethCytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is common in all age groups but is more prevalent in women of childbearing age and neonates. If left untreated, CMV can cause birth defects, recurrent infections, and death. Understanding the burden of CMV disease and its risk factors is important to instigate preventive measures. Despite global research conducted on CMV, there is still a paucity of studies conducted in South Africa that focus on CMV current infection and its determinants as well as immunity to CMV. The goal of this study was to determine the prevalence of CMV infection and immunity and the factors that influence them in South Africa’s public sector between 2007 and 2021. Methods: An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted using the results of CMV tests carried out on patient samples. The included test results were obtained from the National Health Laboratory Services and included results from all South African provinces from 2007 to 2021. The data were extracted from the National Health Laboratory Services Corporate Data Warehouse. Records of participants of all age groups whose data were available at the National Health Laboratory Services Corporate Data Warehouse were obtained. Patient demographic details and laboratory results were extracted into data collection tables. Data was cleaned and analysed using Stata 17. The CMV results considered in the analysis were serological (immunoglobulin M [IgM] and Immunoglobulin G [IgG] and molecular polymerase chain reaction tests carried out for routine CMV diagnosis. Immunoglobulin M, 2 polymerase chain reaction, and IgG seroconversion are markers of current CMV infection. A positive IgG antibody result is a marker of immunity (previous infection). A current CMV infection was defined as a positive CMV immunoglobulin M result, a CMV IgG seroconversion from negative to positive within three months of testing, or a positive CMV polymerase chain reaction result. Descriptive statistical analysis along with multivariable logistic regression analyses was used using age, sex, province, year and HIV. Results: A total of 432,170 records were analysed for CMV infection from 2007 to 2021. Among those with available CMV IgG test results, 97.84% (190,933/197,157) tested positive. For those with available CMV immunoglobulin M test results, 5.85% (16,850/288,267) tested positive. Overall, 4.40% (19,006/432,170) of records had evidence of a current CMV infection. Stratified analysis by sex showed similar proportions of current CMV infection for men (4.48%; 7,534/155,515) and women (4.08%; 10,649/261,310). Individuals aged 0–1 year had the highest proportion of current CMV infection at 7.35% (7,682/104,510), while those aged 2–15 years had the lowest proportion at 2.74% (979/35,686). Limpopo had the highest proportion of current CMV infections with 5.23%, (1,586/30,340), and the Western Cape had the lowest CMV current infection with 2.24% (788/35,114). In adjusted analysis, age and province were significantly associated with current CMV infection. Using individuals 0–1 year as the reference, all other age groups were less likely to test positive for CMV; the age group 2–15 years had the lowest CMV current infection (AOR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.32–0.36). Limpopo (AOR = 1.91; 95%CI = 1.76–2.0; p = <0.0018) had the highest odds of current CMV infection while Western Cape had the lowest odds (AOR = 0.66; 95%CI = 0.60–0.73; p = <0.001). HIV infection, sex, and season were not associated with current CMV infection in the adjusted analysis. Regarding CMV immunity, the age group 26–35 years had the highest number of individuals who were IgG positive (99.18%; 45,845/46,223). The Northern Cape province had the highest concentration of IgG-positive individuals (98.81%; 407/4,460), and the year 2012 had the largest percentage of IgG-positive individuals (98.29%; 11,607/11,809). Conclusion: Age and place of residence (province) were associated with current CMV infection. Cytomegalovirus seroprevalence did not differ by gender. We found that a significant proportion of children are not susceptible to CMV infection. More recent 3 data would be useful to evaluate CMV infection in the South African populace and to give a clearer idea of the epidemiology of CMV infection. Meantime, without an effective CMV vaccine, the major preventive measure is educating people about CMV risk mitigation measures. Cytomegalovirus infection vaccines are still in the early phases of development, and our study contributes to identifying a potential target age for vaccination.Item Revalence and factors associated with virological nonsuppression amongst HIV positive pregnant and lactating adult women in the Kingdom of Eswatini in 2016-2017(2024) Ndlangamandla, MpumeleloAntiretroviral treatment (ART) is the primary intervention for preventing mother to child transmission of HIV service package. The likelihood of vertical transmission of HIV can be drastically reduced by using ART. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends ART initiation in pregnant and lactating women living with HIV regardless of WHO clinical staging and thereafter to continue combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) for life. There are some challenges in implementing the WHO recommendations in settings where many women cannot attend antenatal care services due to social or economic barriers or structural barriers and even fewer women attend postnatal care services. The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of virological non-suppression among pregnant and lactating women living with HIV, to quantify the association between self-reported ART use and virological non-suppression and determine socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural characteristics associated with virological non-suppression among pregnant and lactating women living with HIV. This is a cross-sectional study using secondary data from the Swaziland HIV Incidence Survey. The primary study was a population-based survey which was nationally representative, using a cross-sectional study design conducted in 2016-2017 in the Kingdom of Eswatini employing a two-stage stratified cluster sample design. This study sample included adult women living with HIV who were either pregnant or lactating at the time of the survey. Data analysis was conducted using Stata 17. The data analysis made use of sampling weights and clustering of individuals within each enumeration area using weighted clustered logistic regression survey analysis commands in Stata. A total of 195 adult women living with HIV were included in the survey with a median age of 28 years old. Among the women, 104 (54.4%) were either married or cohabiting with someone, and 151 (71.9%) were living in a rural setting. Only 77 (38.8%) had attained primary education as their highest level of education while 122 (63.8%) were lactating. A total of 120 (62%) reported being on ARVs and 158 (81.8%) being virally suppressed. The overall virological non-suppression prevalence of 36.8% was higher than the UNAIDS target of 10% by 2020 to speed up HIV elimination. In a multivariable analysis, two risk factors remained statistically significant. Women who were aged 17 to 24 years old were almost five times more likely to be virologically non-suppressed (aOR=4.7, 95% CI 1.8 - 11.8, p=0.001) while women who did not report ARV use during pregnancy were eight times more likely to have virological non- RESEARCH REPORT (COMH7060) 320775 IV suppression (aOR=8.1, 95% CI 3.0 - 21.8, p<0.001). Maternal age was dichotomised with the younger group compared to the older group (17-24 years, vs 25+ years). An additional analysis excluding self-reported ARV use at pregnancy found that virological non-suppression was associated with maternal age (OR=5.5, 95% CI 2.3 – 13.7, p<0.001) and number of sexual partners in the previous 12 months (OR=7.9, 95% CI 1.6 – 40.5, p=0.013). Maternal age was dichotomised with the younger group compared to the older group (17-24 years, vs 25+ years) The study found that virological non-suppression was associated with maternal age and ARV use at pregnancy. The additional analysis also found a strong association with maternal age and number of sexual partners the women reported having in the previoustwelve months. However, the primary study was not powered to detect differences in virological non-suppression among our population of interest. The sample size was also small, which limited the ability to investigate other possible risk factors. To help the country address the identified gaps, I would recommend the scale up of the DREAMS program and strict following of HIV guidelines to actively monitor viral load and ART uptake during pregnancy and lactation. In addition, messaging around avoidance of multiple sexual partners should be strengthenedItem Risk assessment of exposure to indoor particulate matter (PM2.5) near a Ferro-manganese smelter - Meyerton, Gauteng Province(2024) Khoza, Goodwill Jopa ZimakaziBackground- Globally, over 90% of the populace have no access to clean air. Exposure to airborne contaminants is associated with adverse health risks. Studies have reported on direct correlation between industrialised settings with increased incidence of air pollution associated illnesses. Chronic exposure to PM2.5 is linked to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. Exposure to particulate matter (PM) in residential settings has been studied in many big mega-cities globally. However, fewer studies were achieved in low-income settings and South Africa is no exception. Exposure and risk assessments research emanate from occupational settings with less emphasis on residential settings. Studies assessing the risk of exposure to PM2.5 in residential settings are quite limited. This provides understanding a research knowledge gap in South African low-income societies. Purpose- The purpose of the study is to determine indoor PM2.5 chronic daily intake to estimate the non-carcinogenic risk in communities living adjacent industrial PM emitting sources. Methods- Secondary data from the main study titled “Motor and cognitive health outcomes in a manganese-exposed African community” (HREC clearance certificate no. M121117), which was conducted during the period of 2019/20 was used to assess the risk of exposure to indoor PM2.5. The secondary data used in this study was collected during winter season, and PM2.5 was sampled using a gravimetric technique over a period of seven days. Particles were drawn into the sampling head by a Gillian Gil-Air 300plus pump (Sensidyne, St Petersburg FL, USA) which was connected using a teflon tubing. A PM2.5 Cyclone D32 with a cut-off point of PM2.5 attached to the sampling head to isolate larger particles from entering the inlet of the cassette. The pump was calibrated and operated at a continuous flow rate of 2.75 L/minute over a seven-days period. Pre-and-post-weighing of filters was performed to derive the final mass in a controlled laboratory environment using a micro-balance scale (modelCPA225D, Sartorius, AG, Göttingen, Germany). The pre-weight (mass) consisted only of the mass of a filter while the post mass consisted of particulate and filters. Results- The particulate matter (PM) mass concentration for New Sicelo, Old Sicelo and Noldick was found to be 0.0125 mg/m³, 0.0115 mg/m³ and 0.0061 mg/m³ respectively. The indoor PM mass concentrations for both New and Old Sicelo was found to be doubled as compared to that of Noldick’s. An increased PM mass concentrations for the New and Old Sicelo areas implied an unavoidable risk of PM exposure to the population of New and Old Sicelo, respectively. Flowing from the identified risk; sustainable mitigation plans are fundamental to curb the risk of generational poisonous exposures which will rampantly lower the populace life expectancy tremendously if not proactively addressed especially at source. Daily intake (DI) fractions for females and males were 22.98 m3 /kg/day and 17 m3 /kg/day for all three locations, respectively. Higher DI for females corroborate and support preceding studies’ findings that women spent 80% of their instances indoors. The chronic daily intake (CDI) for males at New Sicelo, Old Sicelo and Noldick were 0.21 mg/kg/day, 0.20 mg/kg/day and 0.10 mg/kg/day and females at New Sicelo, Old Sicelo and Noldick had been 0.29 mg/kg/day, 0.26 mg/kg/day and 0.14 mg/kg/day, respectively. The difference in CDI values for females and males tells how women are over exposed compared to men. Hazard quotients (HQ) for females throughout the three locations were 261, 240 and 127 respectively while males were 193, 178 and 94. A hazard quotients (HQ) measurement means women are over exposed compared to men. H>1 for women means that non-carcinogenic impact has been surpassed and cancer is high while men with H>1 for women means that non-carcinogenic impact has been surpassed and cancer is high while men with H>1 have a negligible cancer risk in the tree areas (Old and New Sicelo, Noldick). The findings from the study positively affirm the following aspects; i) characterization of the PM mass concentration from the three locations and, ii) how impactful is the PM exposure levels to the population health status which in turn influence the concept of exposure assessment. To support the exposure assessment process; a systematic review was conducted on time-activity patterns, the demographic data for risk assessment input variables were noted and the estimation non-carcinogenic health risk of exposure to indoor PM concentration especially for the community of Meyerton. Conclusion -The study determined indoor PM2.5 chronic daily intake to estimate the non-carcinogenic risk in communities living adjacent to industrial PM emitting sources. The study may want to aid in perception of exposure and development of abatement measures to decrease exposure to PM2.5 sources and assists in performing exposure assessments.Item Risk factors for breast cancer among women in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, Gauteng Province of South Africa, 2017–2020: a case-control study(2024) Mashele, Sizeka AubreyBackground: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women in South Africa (SA). In 2020, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were 52.6 and 16.0 per 100 000, respectively. There is a paucity of evidence on the risk factors for BC among women of all population groups in SA. The goal of this study was to determine the risk factors for BC, calculate the ASIR as well as explore epidemiological changes in BC among women in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, Gauteng Province, SA. Methods: An unmatched case-control study was conducted from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2020 using secondary data extracted from the Ekurhuleni Population-Based Cancer Registry (EPBCR). Unconditional multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out using the adjusted odds ratio (aOR). The variables race, employment, HIV, smoking and alcohol statuses were included in the multivariable logistic regression model while the model was adjusted for age. In addition to risk factor analyses, we calculated the ASIR for BC in women using the Statistics South Africa population estimates as a denominator and the Segi-World Standard Population (WSP) for standardization. The joinpoint regression program was used to estimate the average annual per cent change (AAPC) for the four years (2017–2020). Results: A total of 3068 (2217 cases and 851 controls) participants were enrolled in the study. The mean age (±SD) in years of the participants was 55.2 (±15.2). The White population group, being self-employed and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) -positive status was significantly associated with reduced odds of BC development among women. Women who were HIV-positive were 61% less likely to have BC than women who were HIV-negative (aOR 0.39; 95%CI: 0.27‒ 0.57). White women were 75% less likely to have BC than women of other races (aOR 0.35; 95%CI: 0.29‒0.43). Self-employed women were 59% less likely to have BC than women who v were formally employed (aOR 0.41; 95%CI: 0.18‒0.97). The ASIR for BC among all women in 2017 was 42.33 (95%CI: 39.25–45.59) and 23.39 (95%CI: 21.10–25.86) per 100 000 in 2020. White women had the highest incidence rate of BC throughout the study period (55.47 (95%CI: 47.57–65.08) in 2017, 69.70 (95%CI: 60.77–79.74) in 2018, 35.51 (95%CI: 29.29–42.85) in 2019 and 37.12 (95%CI: 30.74–44.62) in 2020) compared to other population groups. No significant reduction in BC incidence rate was observed among all women throughout the study period with an exception of Black women, whereby a significant reduction in BC incidence rate was observed between 2017 and 2020 with an AAPC of -23.5% (p=0.017) Conclusion: In this study, the White population group, being self-employed and HIV-positive had lower odds of BC and thus necessitate more in-depth studies using primary data to effectively explore the risk factors of BC among women in SA settings. There was no significant change in AAPC except for Black women, this indicates disparities in screening uptake among population groups, and as such, there is a need to strengthen BC preventive strategies. There is a need for public health awareness to scale up BC screening uptake as well as the promotion of early detection through targeted awareness campaigns.Item Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics and social contact patterns(2024) Kleynhans, Jacoba Wilhelmina (Jackie)Background- Understanding the community burden and transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can assist to make informed decisions for prevention policies. Methods-From August through October 2018, before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we performed a cross-sectional contact survey nested in a prospective household cohort in an urban (Jouberton, North West Province) and a rural community (Agincourt, Mpumalanga Province) in South Africa to measure contact rates in 535 study participants. Participants were interviewed to collect details on all contact events (within and outside of the household). During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic we enrolled 1211 individuals from 232 randomly selected households in the same urban and rural community, and followed the cohort prospectively for 16 months (July 2020 through November 2021), collecting blood every two months to test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Using these longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates and comparing these with reported laboratory-confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths, we investigated the community burden and severity of SARS-CoV-2. We also performed a case-ascertained household transmission study of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 index cases living with HIV (LWH) and not LWH (NLWH) in two urban communities (Jouberton, North West Province and Soweto, Gauteng Province) from October 2020 through September 2021. We enrolled 131 SARS-CoV-2 index cases at primary healthcare clinics. The index cases and their 457 household contacts were followed up for six weeks with thrice weekly visits to collect nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing on reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), irrespective of symptoms. We assessed household cumulative infection risk (HCIR), duration of virus detection and the interval between index and contact symptom onset (serial interval). By collecting high-resolution household contact patterns in these households using wearable sensors, we assessed the association between contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 household transmission. Results -During the contact survey, we observed an overall contact rate of 14 (95% confidence interval (CI), 13- 15) contacts per day, with higher contact rates in children aged 14-18 years (22, 95%CI 8-35) compared to children <7 years (15, 95%CI 12-17). We found higher contact rates in the rural site (21, 95%CI 14- 28) compared to the urban site (12, 95%CI 11-13). When comparing the household cohort seroprevalence estimates to district SARS-CoV-2 laboratoryconfirmed infections, we saw that only 5% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were reported to surveillance. Three percent of infections resulted in hospitalization and 0.7% in death. People LWH were not more likely to be seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 (odds ratio [OR] 1.0, 95%CI 0.7–1.5), although the sample size for people LWH was small (159/1131 LWH). During the case-ascertained household transmission study for SARS-CoV-2, we estimated a HCIR of 59% (220/373) in susceptible household members, with similar rates in households with an index LWH and NLWH (60% LWH vs 58% NLWH). We observed a higher risk of transmission from index cases aged 35–59 years (adjusted OR [aOR] 3.4, 95%CI 1.5–7.8) and ≥60 years (aOR 3.1, 95% CI 1.0–10.1) compared with those aged 18–34 years, and index cases with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load (using cycle threshold values (Ct) <25 as a proxy, aOR 5.3, 95%CI 1.6–17.6). HCIR was also higher in contacts aged 13–17 years (aOR 7.1, 95%CI 1.5–33.9) and 18–34 years (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.0–18.4) compared with <5 years. Through the deployment of wearable sensors, we were able to measure high-resolution within household contact patterns in the same households. We did not find an association between duration (aOR 1.0 95%CI 1.0-1.0) and frequency (aOR 1.0 95%CI 1.0-1.0) of close-proximity contact with SARSCoV-2 index cases and household members and transmission. Conclusion- We found high contact rates in school-going children, and higher contact rates in the rural community compared to the urban community. These contact rates add to the limited literature on measured contact patterns in South Africa. The burden of SARS-CoV-2 is underestimated in national surveillance, highlighting the importance of serological surveys to determine the true burden. Under-ascertainment of cases can hinder containment efforts through isolation and contact tracing. Based on seroprevalence estimates in our study, people LWH did not have higher SARS-CoV-2 community attack rates. In the household transmission study, we observed a high HCIR in households with symptomatic index cases, and that index cases LWH did not infect more household members compared to people NLWH. We found a correlation between age and SARS-CoV-2 transmission and acquisition, as well as between age and contact rates. Although we did not observe an association between household contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we generated SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameters and community and household contact data that can be used to parametrize infectious disease models for both SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens to assist with forecasting and intervention assessments. The availability of robust data is important in the face of a pandemic where intervention strategies have to be adapted continuously.Item The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on essential public healthcare services in Gauteng province, South Africa(2024) Fonka, Cyril BernsahBackground: The Covid-19 pandemic like previous outbreaks has the potential to adversely impact essential healthcare services. Even though the Gauteng province was considered the epicentre of the Covid19 outbreak in South Africa, there is no comprehensive assessment of the effect of Covid-19 on the service utilisation, delivery and health outcomes of routine healthcare services in Gauteng province. Aim: To assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the utilisation, delivery and health outcomes of essential maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) services in Gauteng province, South Africa. Methods: This was a mixed methods study. A longitudinal study design was used to analyse data from the District Health Information Software (DHIS). We compared key MNCH indicators in the pre-Covid-19 period (March 2019-February 2020) to corresponding periods during the Covid-19 outbreak (March 2020- February 2021). The differences were analysed using time plots, linear regression, and Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) in Stata 17.0, at a 5% level of alpha for statistical significance. In-depth interviews were conducted with senior managers in the Gauteng Department of Health (GDoH) using MS Teams, to explore their perspectives on the impact of Covid-19 on routine healthcare services in the province and their recommendations for dealing with future pandemics. The interviews were recorded, transcribed, coded and analysed thematically using MS word 2016. Results: The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the utilisation of essential MNCH services in the Gauteng province. The disruption was observed in the time trend plots, and then quantified by comparing the indicator means for the 12-month periods before and during Covid-19. The impact was a statistically significant decline in the mean of three indicators: PHC headcount <5 years declined by 77 103.9 visits (p<0.001), ANC 1st visits before 20 weeks decreased by 3.0% (p=0.002) and PNC visits within 6 days decreased by 10.2% (p<0.001) (Error! Reference source not found.). The ITS regression provided a more nuanced analysis. The decrease in PHC headcount t <5 years and PNC visits within 6 days were due to the immediate effect of the March 2020 Covid-19 lockdown which led to a drop in utilisation services. However, the effect on ANC 1st visits before 20 weeks was a continuous decline in utilisation throughout the Covid-19 period (Error! Reference source not found.). Service delivery and outcome indicators were negatively affected though not significantly. There were no significant recoveries and some indicators rather became worse post-lockdown. The nature of the adverse impact of Covid-19 on MNCH indicators was similar across all five districts, although the degree of disruption varied among the districts and services. The decline in service utilisation for PHC headcount <5 years ANC 1st visits before 20 weeks and PNC visits within 6 days was statistically significant in all districts, except for ANC 1st visits in Johannesburg (Error! Reference source not found.). The decline in PHC headcount <5 years was significantly larger in the three metropolitan districts (Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane) compared to the two non-metropolitan districts (Sedibeng and West Rand) (Table 5). ANC 1st visits before 20 weeks significantly declined in the Ekurhuleni, Sedibeng and West Rand districts compared to Johannesburg. While the decrease in PNC visits within 6 days significantly deteriorated in Johannesburg compared to the other four districts (Error! Reference source not found.). Pneumonia fatality <5 years significantly declined in the pooled analysis, in the Tshwane district alone. The majority of the respondents agreed that the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted essential healthcare services but a few disagreed. Several reasons were advanced for the disruption. On the supply side, they included: (i) the reallocation of resources to fighting Covid-19; (ii) healthcare worker shortages due to Covid-19 illness; (iii) healthcare facilities turning away non-Covid-19 patients; and (iv) Covid-19 screening that increased waiting times. On the demand side are; (i) restrictions on movement and limited public transport during the lockdown; (ii) fears of being infected by Covid-19 at health facilities; and (iii) misinterpretation of health information about the availability of non-Covid services. According to the respondents, the disruption of essential healthcare services had significant consequences, particularly for chronic patients, including treatment interruption, loss of follow-up, and death. The ‘catch-up’ plan and technology were used to improve service delivery during Covid-19. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the utilisation of essential healthcare services for MNCH. Although service delivery and health outcomes were less impacted, some outcome indicators at district levels went worst. While there were recovery attempts for service delivery like immunisation, some services rather deteriorated post-Covid-19 lockdown. However, there were mixed findings, fewer routine services were not affected by Covid-19. It is important to continuously assess and redress the unintended impacts of outbreaks even while they are occurring. This requires an understanding of the reasons and mechanisms of service disruption from demand and supply perspectives. Critical policies like lockdowns should be a collective decision, implemented without undermining routine services. High-level policymakers must consider addressing geographical variations of an outbreak’s impact on essential healthcare services. Covid19 may have more complex long-term effects, especially for individuals with adverse social determinants. And it may take longer for some healthcare services to fully recover hence, the need for health systems interventions to prioritise the affected services.