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    Farming systems in South Africa beyond 2020: a scenario-based study, using systems analysis, of the connectivity between farming systems in the Vhembe district, Limpopo, South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Materechera-Mitochi, Fenji; Scholes, Mary
    Agriculture is a significant contributor to the South African economy and overall development as it contributes to poverty reduction and food security. It is against this backdrop that agricultural development becomes a focus area for decision making amongst stakeholders, as it is directly linked to food systems. The traditional approach to agricultural production in the country has been one that views farming as mainly based on land ownership and yield in isolation from the broader context of the four drivers of production namely land, labour, capital and enterprise. The concept of farming systems provides a broader perspective on farming and encompasses the entire value chain for a commodity which includes production, management practices, marketing, value addition, financial resources, and policies. The South African agrarian structure is characterised by a dualism in which large-scale commercial farmers co-exist alongside small-scale farmers. This is a legacy of the apartheid system of governance. Large-scale commercial farmers, who are mostly capital intensive, have historically been regarded as the main drivers of national food security while small-scale farmers on the other hand are viewed as significant contributors to food security at a household level. Both farmers are therefore important contributors to the national agricultural economy. Research on the two types of farmers in the South African context is usually focused on the respective farmers’ approaches to production individually and does not consider them as joint ventures. This study was aimed at providing an alternative approach to viewing South Africa’s farming systems by evaluating current farming systems in the Vhembe district of Limpopo, South Africa, using systems analysis as a tool to highlight the connectivity of the interactions within and between them. The study also aimed to conceptualize scenarios for sustainable future farming systems in South Africa. The Vhembe district in the Limpopo province was chosen for the study because both largescale commercial and small-scale farmers occur and due to the favourable sub-tropical climate, the area has become a hub for the farming of numerous high value crops that contribute positively to the country’s agricultural economy. The study made use of a mixed methods approach that combined the analysis of primary data obtained from in-depth interviews and secondary data obtained from an agricultural database to identify and characterize large-scale commercial and small-scale farming systems in the Vhembe district. The study examined the drivers of production for three different commodities, macadamia nuts, mangos and avocado iii pears, the two types of farming systems and their connectivity. The study was grounded on the conceptual framework of systems thinking and used a systems analysis tool i.e., causal loop diagrams to analyse the connectivity between the two farming systems. Lastly, the study developed conceptual scenarios using a deductive scenario method to conceptualise scenarios for the future of the two farming systems and the different commodities. Key findings of the study showed that farming systems need to be understood through the lens of the four drivers of production. Land as a driver of production interacts with multiple other factors in shaping the management of a sustainable farming system. Examples of these factors include the link between land availability, ownership and farm size, decision-making and resource allocation tied to land management practices, and socio-economic considerations including the diversification of livelihoods by incorporating non-farm income and the farmers’ adaptability to uncertainties such as climate change. The findings also revealed that there are interconnections between the two types of farming systems presenting potential for enhanced production and commercial opportunities. The conceptual scenarios developed in the study and the systems thinking tool of causal loop diagrams proved to be valuable tools to inform decision making and policy development. The study’s main conclusion points to the potential of large-scale commercial and small-scale farming systems in South Africa operating as joint ventures in the future and enhancing the sustainability of agricultural production and livelihoods. It also recommends the use of systems thinking that includes social, financial and environmental values and impacts in decision making for agricultural development.