Browsing by Author "Gidey, Eskinder"

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    Analysis of urban sprawl dynamics using machine learning, CA-Markov chain, and the Shannon entropy model: a case study in Mbombela City, South Africa
    (SpringerOpen, 2024) Mhangara, Paidamwoyo; Gidey, Eskinder; Rabia Manjoo
    Over half of the world’s population resides in urban areas. We anticipate that this pattern will become more evident, notably in South Africa. Therefore, research on urban spirals, both past and projected, is necessary for efficient urban land use planning and management. This study aims to assess the spatio-temporal urban sprawl dynamics from 2003 to 2033 in Mbombela, South Africa. We employed robust approaches such as machine learning, the cellular automata-Markov chain, and the Shannon entropy model to look at how urban sprawl changes over time using both the Landsat 4–5 Thematic Mapper and the 8 Operational Land Imagers. We conducted this study to bridge the gaps in existing research, which primarily focuses on past and current urban growth trends rather than future trends. The findings indicated that the coverage of built-up areas and vegetation has expanded by 1.98 km2 and 13.23 km2 between the years 2003 and 2023. On the other hand, the amount of land continues to decrease by -12.56 km2 and − 2.65 km2 annually, respectively. We anticipate an increase in the built-up area and vegetation to a total of 7.60 km2 and 0.57 km2, respectively, by the year 2033. We anticipate a total annual decline of -7.78 km2 and − 0.39 km2 in water bodies and open land coverage, respectively. This work has the potential to assist planners and policymakers in improving sustainable urban land-use planning.
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    The synergetic effect of drought and land use changes on Ethiopian Rift Valley Northwestern Escarpment livelihood systems
    (Springer, 2025-02) Gidey, Eskinder; Mhangara, Paidamwoyo; Nasir, Jemal; Zeleke, Tesfaye; Assefa, Engdawork; Kahsay, Shishay; Birhane, Emiru
    Climate change has significantly impacted smallholder farmers in developing countries, where most livelihoods rely on rain-fed agricultural systems. The Northwestern Escarpment of the Ethiopian Rift Valley (NEERV) is among Ethiopia’s most drought-vulnerable areas and is highly affected by land use and land cover change (LULCC). This study aimed to analyze the synergistic impacts of drought and LULCC in the three major livelihood zones (LZs) of NEERV between 1983 and 2019. The study used socioeconomic, climatic, and earth observation datasets. Utilizing a mix of socioeconomic, climatic, and earth observation datasets, this paper investigated the combined effects of these factors on three major livelihood zones: Alagie-Ofla (ALOFLZ), Tsirare catchment (TCLZ), and Raya Valley (RVLZ). The analysis revealed significant rainfall variability, with annual fluctuations between 31 and 50% and seasonal variations ranging from 39 to 99%. This variability has contributed to frequent drought occurrences, with intervals of approximately 2.13 years in ALOFLZ, 2.2 years in TCLZ, and 2.13 years in RVLZ. There has been a notable increase in cultivated and built-up areas across all zones. The study found that drought and LULCC have severely impacted agricultural productivity and local ecosystems, with the most pronounced effects observed in RVLZ, TCLZ, and ALOFLZ. The findings highlight a critical need for integrated approaches to manage and monitor the synergistic impacts of drought and LULCC. The study underscores the importance of enhancing drought and LULCC monitoring systems to improve resilience and adaptability in vulnerable regions. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of how these intertwined factors exacerbate environmental and socioeconomic challenges, offering valuable insights into policy and management strategies for mitigating their effects. Recommendations include enhancing the current drought and LULCC monitoring systems to improve predictions and mitigation efforts, thus bolstering resilience and adaptability among affected communities.