Professionals’ perspectives on the future role of coal in South Africa’s electricity supply industry

Abstract

Over the past few years, the South African electricity supply industry (ESI) has been subjected to intense scrutiny. Two key issues have been (1) the long delay in updating the Integrated Resource Plan (Government’s main policy instrument for long-term planning in the ESI) and (2) the dismal state of affairs in which Eskom (the state-owned utility) finds itself. Central to both issues is the future role of coal. Stakeholder perspectives play an influential role in long term planning in the ESI. A systematic study was therefore conducted to explore the perspectives of select individuals from a variety of professional fields within the ESI on the future role of coal as an electricity generation option. The objectives of the research were to identify and collect as many perspectives as possible of the sampled professionals on the future role of coal as a generation option, using a Q-Methodological approach. The use of factor analysis revealed that professionals engaged in the ESI hold several distinct perspectives, though one clear area of consensus and some other distinct areas of contention emerged from the findings. The results are discussed in the context of the future role of coal in the ESI and its impact on energy policy formation and include the following: The dominant perspective, held by a majority of the respondents sampled (Factor 1), is a strong disapproval of coal and a strong preference for a renewables-dominant supply mix, supported by a high regard to environmental issues. The next prominent perspective (Factor 2) is emphatic in its support for coal power to remain in the ESI, especially ‘clean coal’ technologies. This factor grouping indicated a strong rejection of the perspectives favoured by the Factor 1 participants. The third and final perspective (Factor 3) doesn’t have a particular preference for either coal or renewables and shows the greatest enthusiasm for economic issues and the protection of jobs