Mishap or crisis? The apartheid economy's recent record in historical perspective

Abstract

The South African economy has performed poorly in recent years. One line of interpretation views this poor performance as a severe and unfortunate cyclical downswing from which the economy is slowly recovering. Another by contrast regards it as symptomatic of an economic crisis; many variations between these views can be found. This is of course an ideologically-loaded issue since the 'mishap' position is associated with the South African government and the 'crisis' view with its left-wing opponents who foresee national economic recovery only once significant economic and political restructuring of society has taken place. I shall begin by describing the recent economic record of South Africa in its post-War context, and draw out some causes of the current decline. I will then consider whether the causes of decline are temporary/cyclical or long-term, whether they are likely to weaken or worsen, and how the decline as a whole should be characterised.