Spatial and temporal patterns of conflict events in Africa: an exploratory analysis

Abstract

Conflict events across the world have usually been studied from a qualitative perspective. The current abundance of data pertaining to conflicts now allows for a more statistical approach. This research report examined the spatial distribution of three conflict types (battles, riots and protests, and violence against civilians) throughout mainland Africa. It also considered the evolution of the observed spatial patterns through time by comparing the patterns before 2007 with those from 2007 and onwards. The results show that although Somalia and Sudan are unusually afflicted with conflict, this is only statistically discernible at the more granular areal levels. It was also found that when conflict variables are dichotomised, loss of information occurs, but is somewhat mitigated by considering the analysis at more granular areal levels. Finally, although the number of conflicts has increased, there were mostly no significant differences between spatial patterns before and after 2007.