White politics: Opportunity or constraint

Abstract

The context within which political conflict plays itself out in South Africa has changed dramatically since FW de Klerk's speech to the opening of parliament on 2 February this year. The wide-ranging announcements have impacted on all political actors operating both within and outside the country. For the white political parties in South Africa, one of the consequences of the speech has been the disturbance of the traditional alignments and relationships between them. Some analysts now argue that South Africa has already seen Its last white election and conclude that not only has the Conservative Party no chance of ever gaining power, but that the Democratic Party must Inevitably crumble under the pressure of an accommodation between the NP and the ANC. Gerrit Viljoen's recent statement that the NP was “not very likely to be in control” in ten years time reinforces this line of analysis (Citizen 7 February 1990). These are some of the conventional wisdoms colouring the current perspectives of "white" politics. This paper takes issue with some of these perspectives by examining the dimensions of the fluidity In white politics and evaluating the potential role that changing white political orientations may play in the newly emerging politics in South Africa. The analysis of the likely trends in white politics is based on the election and referendum results during the decade of the 1980s. White political attitudes remain an important factor especially since F.W. de Klerk has committed himself to holding either a referendum or an election to endorse any new constitution.