The exchange rate as an absorber of commodity price volatility on stock returns of commodity producing firms

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effect of commodity price volatility on the volatility of the South African exchange rate and subsequently the returns on the equity of commodity producing firms listed on the JSE. GARCH and VAR models evaluate South African exchange rate and stock market data between the years 1995 and 2015. Results show that there exists a spill over and bidirectional relationships between the equity returns volatility and the volatility of the exchange rate. Findings also indicated that international commodity price shocks transmitted into the South African Rand.