A reassessment of the Acsádi and Nemeskéri complex method for adult age estimation using South African and Dutch skeletal sample
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Date
2020
Authors
Meyer, Anja
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Abstract
The Acsádi and Nemeskéri Complex Method is a multifactorial method that enables the use of different
combinations of skeletal age indicators to assess adult age-at-death. The Complex Method employs
the use of four skeletal elements in assessing age, including the degree of endocranial suture closure,
age-related changes to the pubic symphyseal surface, and the internal structural changes observable in
the proximal humerus and femur. Acsádi and Nemeskéri (1970) reported a very optimistic error margin
of ±2.5 years when all four skeletal elements were used. Despite these promising results, the Complex
Method’s statistical validity and effectiveness have been questioned, suggesting that it results in a
constant over- and underestimation of age in younger and older groups, respectively. In this study, the
Complex Method was tested on a Dutch archaeological population (n = 167) and two modern South
African skeletal samples (n = 381) with individuals of known age-at-death. In addition, the use of
Bayesian statistics was employed, using the scoring criteria of Acsádi and Nemeskéri (1970), to see
whether a statistically improved method might yield better results than the averaging technique used
in the Complex Method. Results from this study to some extent justify the critique levelled against the
Complex Method’s tendency to over- and underestimate age. Nevertheless, the Complex Method still
performed surprisingly well for certain skeletal element combinations, substantiating its continued use
as an age estimation method for European archaeological populations. Contrary to Acsádi and
Nemeskéri’s (1970) findings, the use of all four skeletal elements did not provide more accurate age
estimates. For the most part, combinations making use of three or two skeletal elements outperformed
the use of all four skeletal indicators. Population- and sex-specific differences were noted in this study,
and therefore, it is suggested that the Complex Method may be optimised by making use of sex- and
population-specific skeletal element combinations and weighting systems in the future. The Bayesian
method provided some improvement as it decreased levels of over- and underestimation in the younger
and older age groups, especially for females. It seems that there is a benefit in using a weighting system,
given that for the SA white males the Complex Method outperformed the Bayesian method in
combinations that required weighting.
Description
A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy to the Faculty of Health Sciences,
School of Anatomical Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2020