The use of indigenous knowledge systems to predict extreme weather events: exploring the case of tropical cyclone eloise

Abstract

A tropical cyclone is defined as a storm that develops over tropical oceans and is primarily fueled by heat transfer from the ocean. Tropical cyclones are intensifying and the regions of cyclogenesis and of storm lifetime maximum intensity are expanding poleward. This is exposing more areas to tropical storm impacts. This study investigated the use of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) in Jozini, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) to forecast tropical cyclone landfall and impacts, with a focus on Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Through in-depth semi-structured interviews conducted with residents of Jozini, this study investigated the extent to which people who were affected by Tropical Cyclone Eloise were able to forecast the storm and take precautionary measures. The study exploresthe IKS indicators used by residents of Jozini, and the perceived reliability of these indicators relative to South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts. The results indicate that community members in Jozini, KZN use various biological, meteorological and cultural indicators to forecast weather, as well as for their day-to-day activities. These include domestic animals (cats); wild animals (birds and ants); meteorological indicators (cloud cover, temperature and wind speed); and reactions from humans (specifically young children and elders who had a surgical procedure). The results reveal that people from Jozini community still use and rely on their indigenous knowledge (IK), even though they also note that their indigenous species are becoming extinct due to climate change and environmental degradation, making it difficult for them to rely on their IKS. As a result, they have to make use of the science based meteorological data provided for them, even though for some, it is hard to understand while others find it unreliable. In the case of Tropical Cyclone Eloise, participants did not forecast it using their IKS, therefore it was not effective in terms of forecasting the cyclone. However, they were able to use their IKS to understand the severity of the storm and take precautionary measures like putting heavy materials on top of their houses. The recommendation of this study would be conducting a similar study in Mozambique where Tropical Cyclone Eloise first made landfall, to get more IKS based information from people that experienced the tropical cyclone from the onset.