Nexus between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa
Date
2023-09
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Abstract
depend on rainfed subsistence agriculture. This paper investigates the relationship between
summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We
used a household panel data set nested in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System, together with rainfall and temperature data for the summer periods 2006-07 to
2018-19 from three weather stations that surround the study area. We quantified the variability of
rainfall using coefficient of variation and the standardised rainfall anomaly index, while temperature variability was reflected by the standardised temperature anomaly. In addition, the
Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect temporal trends in rainfall and temperature. Longitudinal models accounting for socioeconomic and climate factors were used to estimate the
relationship between weather and climate. The results reveal significant impact on food security
from high inter-annual rainfall variability through fluctuations in food consumption, dietary diversity, and the experience of hunger. This study offers significant insights on how dietary diversity, food availability and overall food security are positively associated with greater average
rainfall through subsistence agriculture as a livelihood strategy. These insights have important
implications by suggesting seasonal forecasts to predict periods of potential food insecurity in
local communities and can guide government policy and interventions to lessen food insecurity in
rural areas
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Keywords
Rainfall variability Climate change Food security Livelihoods Rural household