Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean

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dc.citation.doi10.1038/s41598-017-02688-yen_ZA
dc.citation.issue1en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorZhang, N.
dc.contributor.authorFeng, M.
dc.contributor.authorHendon, H.H.
dc.contributor.authorHobday, A.J.
dc.contributor.authorZinke, J.
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-18T14:17:33Z
dc.date.available2017-10-18T14:17:33Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractEpisodic anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), amplify ocean warming effects and may lead to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. MHW-induced coral bleaching events have been observed frequently in recent decades in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), a region traditionally regarded to have resilience to global warming. In this study, we assess the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to MHWs across the mostly understudied reefs in the SEIO. We find that in extended summer months, the MHWs at tropical and subtropical reefs (divided at ∼20°S) are driven by opposite ENSO polarities: MHWs are more likely to occur at the tropical reefs during eastern Pacific El Niño, driven by enhanced solar radiation and weaker Australian Monsoon, some likely alleviated by positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and at the subtropical reefs during central Pacific La Niña, mainly caused by increased horizontal heat transport, and in some cases reinforced by local air-sea interactions. Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) also modulate the MHW occurrences. Projected future increases in ENSO and MJO intensity with greenhouse warming will enhance thermal stress across the SEIO. Implementing forecasting systems of MHWs can be used to anticipate future coral bleaching patterns and prepare management responses.en_ZA
dc.description.librarianEM2017en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationZhang, N. et al. 2017. Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean. Scientific Reports 7(1), Article number 2443.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322 (Online)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10539/23281
dc.journal.titleScientific Reportsen_ZA
dc.journal.volume7en_ZA
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_ZA
dc.rights© 2017 Zhang, N. et al. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.en_ZA
dc.subjectBleachingen_ZA
dc.subjectCoralen_ZA
dc.subjectDipoleen_ZA
dc.subjectEl Ninoen_ZA
dc.subjectForecastingen_ZA
dc.subjectGreenhouseen_ZA
dc.subjectIndian Oceanen_ZA
dc.subjectSolar radiationen_ZA
dc.subjectSummeren_ZA
dc.subjectTemperature stressen_ZA
dc.subjectWarmingen_ZA
dc.titleOpposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Oceanen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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